Ukraine’s Spring Offensive: Myth or Reality?

It is reasonable to wonder whether the Ukrainian spring offensive will take place or if it is merely a distraction aimed to keep Western support.

Even with Russian forces amassing on the border, many observers predicted that Russia would not invade Ukraine because the political and economic consequences would be too great. However, the invasion occurred, and it is costing Russia dearly, both economically and in terms of human casualties. A little more than a year later, the same issue comes “from the other side”: will Kiev undertake a counteroffensive to reclaim lost ground and, according to some, even retake control of the territory before 2014.

All known evidence, including the contentious Pentagon leaks, indicates that the Ukrainians lack the manpower, material, and ammunition resources to undertake a large-scale operation capable of breaching Russian lines. In addition, the Russians have erected strong defensive lines, giving them a tactical advantage. Simultaneously, there is a rise in reports and analysis of the catastrophic scarcity of ammunition in the West, as well as an apparent chronic lack of industrial ability to refill inventories, at least within the required timeframes.

Despite the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of men, Moscow’s winter offensive failed to materialize. Vladimir Putin appears to have exploited the interim period to train recruits for last September’s call-up. At the same time, Ukraine has lost territory. Kiev looks to be attempting to assemble fresh forces to employ the weapons it has received from the West, while rumors of Ukrainian conscription are unfavorable. However, it is important to note that “miracle weapons” do not exist outside of the requirements of the military industry’s marketing brochures.

According to the Ukrainian authorities’ statements, the announced Ukrainian counteroffensive is always regarded “imminent”: In early April, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that he is “convinced that the counteroffensive will take place in the near future.” “The United States absolutely supports us,” he says.

However, according to Pentagon leaks, Kiev’s biggest problems are not just a lack of anti-aircraft weapons, but also a general lack of ammunition; and this against a backdrop in which Ukraine needs victories to ensure continued Western military and financial aid as Western public support wanes.

Ukraine’s existing frontier runs hundreds of kilometers from east to west. If it were to launch a counteroffensive, Kiev would have to pick its battles carefully. It has even been suggested that there will be two offensives, the first to secure Russian forces and the second, the main one, to conquer politically crucial districts. All of this has been well publicized in the media, and some appear to believe that the Russians will be “caught off guard.”

Meanwhile, current Kremlin objectives may differ from those set at the start of the war. On the one hand, since Moscow allegedly failed to conquer Kiev and depose the Zelensky administration early in the invasion, it is likely to have learned from its failures and is now merely biding its time, strengthening its authority over the occupied territory. At the same time, Moscow is bleeding Ukraine and threatening to relaunch the offensive, which might dissuade investors and drive more Ukrainians out of the country for economic and security reasons.

In this scenario, it is reasonable to wonder whether the much-hyped Ukrainian spring offensive will take place or if it is only a diversionary operation aimed to oppose Moscow’s agenda and keep Western backing.

It is sickening to hear the West’s warmongers pressuring Ukraine to sacrifice, seemingly unconcerned that thousands of young Ukrainians are risking their lives to an unclear military outcome: there is already discussion of the loss of an entire generation of Ukrainian males.