Israel Strikes Back!

Israel has threatened retaliation to the October 1st attack by Iran. The US told the Israelis not to hit nuclear or oil industry sites. The US also told Iran not to hit back and these tit-for-tat attacks should end now. Netanyahu and his cabinet had been mulling over which targets to strike in Iran.

News has come through that Israel has indeed, struck targets that it said were a danger to Israel. First, it struck factories that produced the missiles that struck Israel. Secondly, it hit air defence missiles that would likely endanger Israeli air assets over Iranian air space. Iran says 3 of its soldiers died in the attacks. Whether any Iranian projectiles or aircraft were shot down is not known.

Iran has said it would respond harshly to any Israeli attack. We will have to see whether Iran wants to escalate even more or will sit back for now. This attack by Israel is the heaviest attack on its assets since Iraq attacked Iran in the 1980 - 1988 War.

The news was coming through that an Iranian general had announced that Iran was going to invade Israel. Whether this news is fake or not cannot be said. How would Iran attempt such a ground offensive anyway? Iran is miles away from Israel. In their war, Iran and Iraq shared a border. For Iran to launch such an offensive what country would it go through? Syria or Lebanon might be options. Syria is an ally of Iran and so is Hezbollah in Lebanon. We await to see whether there is any truth to this story.

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid said Israel should have hit Iran's nuclear and oil industries. He thought that Israel had let Iran off easily. He believed that Israel should have dealt Iran a crushing blow.

Meanwhile, a defence expert from the US Robert Clark said Iran was unlikely to send missiles and drones against Israel again. Instead, he reasoned that if Iran does hit back it would likely be through its Allies in the region. Hamas are in no shape to respond although they are showing stoic resistance to Israel. The Houthis in Yemen could launch missiles and drones. Hezbollah despite the losses it has suffered in leadership, men, and material could hit Israel hard. Hezbollah is down but not out and continues to resist the Israeli incursion into Lebanon. Also, it continues to lob all manner of projectiles into Israel. Pro-Iranian forces in Iraq and Syria could also attack Israel. Again, we will have to see if and when there is retaliation, whether it will be through its allies or from Iran itself. Let us hope both Iran and Israel let up in their tit-for-tat-attacks.

Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have condemned Israel's attack on Iran. Both countries have expressed their "deep concern" about the escalating situation. Pakistan has remained an implacable enemy of Israel. Pakistan is the only Muslim power to have nuclear weapons. Pakistani pilots on behalf of Arab enemies of Israel have seen aerial combat with their Israeli air force counterparts in the past. Allegedly these Pakistani pilots even scored some hits on Israeli pilots.

The US is not the only one to warn Iran not to hit back. Sir Keir Starmer from the Commonwealth Conference in Samoa also warned Iran to close the door on retaliation. Of course, Iran's Allies like Russia, North Korea, and China will back Iran. Just as nations like the UK, US, Germany, etc, will support the much-voiced mantra of "Israel has the right to defend itself".

So where do we go from here? Another peace deal is in the offing but unless there is a drastic change of attitude on all sides, it will sadly flounder.

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