Are Ukrainians prepared for concessions and a ceasefire? What the polls say is as follows:

The idea of a negotiated end to the three-year war has been put on the agenda and in the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin thanks to an agreement between the United States and Ukraine on a ceasefire proposal. However, the parties' positions are pretty clear even before Moscow responds.

While President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that he will never yield sovereignty over Ukraine's territory, the United States has suggested that Ukraine must cede land in any permanent deal, breaking a previous taboo against negotiations involving territorial concessions. Meanwhile, Russia has demanded that Ukraine renounce its aspiration to join NATO and accept restrictions on its military. However, Kyiv appears unlikely to obtain the security assurances it seeks from the United States at this time before considering such terms. What the Ukrainian people are willing to accept in exchange for peace is less talked about. Even though guns,

territorial gains, and geopolitics of great power will likely dictate any armistice, ordinary Ukrainians will likely play a significant role in shaping what happens next. A populace that has had enough of war may accept an ugly peace. But peace is likely to be unsustainable in the long run if it lacks local legitimacy and acceptance. We have followed public opinion in Ukraine prior to and during the conflict. The majority of polling in Ukraine during the war is conducted via mobile phone and requires willing participants with service. Many people, especially in the country’s south and east, do not want to answer sensitive questions out of concern for themselves and relatives, some in occupied territories and Russia.

Those who do respond may give guarded responses. Some people are aware of wartime censorship, while others are patriotic or want to appear patriotic to the stranger who is calling. In the meantime, numerous other Ukrainians are exiled abroad. In a similar vein, people living in Russian-occupied territories are excluded from surveys. However, the responses still provide insight into how opinions in Ukraine have changed since the February 2022 Russian invasion. The following are five significant conclusions drawn from relatively recent polls of public opinion that are pertinent to any upcoming peace negotiations.

1. Nearly all Ukrainians are stressed and tired of war

It should not come as a surprise that a brutal war of aggression that lasted for three years has caused a lot of stress in a population that is getting more and more tired of war. According to a survey conducted in December 2024 by the reputable Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, or KIIS, nearly nine out of ten Ukrainians had encountered at least one stressful circumstance in the previous year. The stress of bombing and shelling (39 percent), being separated from family (30 percent),

surviving a loved one's death (26 percent), or being sick with a loved one was shared by a significant number of respondents. Only 10% stated that they had not been in any stressful circumstances. In a similar vein, our surveys revealed that, by the summer of 2024, 84 percent of the population had experienced some form of violence, including physical injury from Russian forces, displacement, loss of family and friends, or witnessing attacks. We also found that, in line with a growing number of news reports, Ukrainians were extremely concerned about their fellow Ukrainians' fatigue from the war; only 10% of respondents said they were not concerned at all with fatigue from the war.

2. More Ukrainians want negotiations, but there are red lines

Numerous polls indicate that Ukrainians are increasingly in favor of negotiations as the war progresses. The way the question is asked affects how much of the population supports negotiations. When given the choice between two options, a Gallup Poll from late 2024 showed that 52% preferred that “Ukraine should seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible,” whereas 38% preferred that “Ukraine should continue fighting until it wins the war.”

Our earlier surveys from 2022 and 2024 similarly show a growing preference for negotiations, though at a lower level – from 11% in 2022 to 31% in 2024. Our surveys, as opposed to the binary Gallup question, offered respondents a variety of territorial compromises for a ceasefire. While about one-third wanted an immediate ceasefire, half wanted to continue fighting until all territories, including the predominately Russian-speaking Donbas region and Crimea, are brought back under Kyiv’s control.

However, the responses to the survey make it abundantly clear that the public places a high value on the country's political independence, despite the high cost of defending it.

3. Ukrainians are more open to territorial concessions

Our surveys, in line with KIIS's own polls, show a growing willingness to cede territory in tandem with growing support for negotiations. Additionally, those who are more pessimistic about the persistence of Western support and are most concerned about war fatigue are more willing to cede territory. However,

the majority of Ukrainians still want the country to fight until the country's territorial integrity, including Crimea, is restored and under Kiev's control. However, since the start of the war, that majority has decreased, going from 71% in 2022 to 51% in 2024. In July 2024, we asked people if they thought the statement "Russia should be allowed to control the territory it has occupied since 2022" was true or not, and 90% said no. As a result, there is very little evidence that the Ukrainian people will accept Russia's territorial annexations or an agreement that recognizes them, as Russia wants.

4. Ukrainians see Russia’s war goals in existential terms

Because neither Zelenskyy nor the majority of Ukrainians trust Putin, they strongly favor any agreement that includes security assurances from NATO states. According to the results of a KIIS poll conducted within the past month, 66% of Ukrainians view Russia's war goals as an existential threat that include the genocide of Ukrainians and the destruction of their independent state. Additionally, 87% of people believe that Russia will not stop at the territories it already controls. Many Ukrainians believe it is delusional to negotiate with an enemy who wants to destroy

Ukraine.Conditions for a lasting peace

Although the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Ukraine has "put the ball in Russia's court," it is not yet clear whether it will be sufficient to bring Putin to the table. Even if it does, it's hard to imagine him arriving as a conqueror rather than a compromiser given previous behavior. What is evident is that any resulting "peace" appears to depend more on Ukraine making concessions and accepting losses. A peace of this kind can be reached behind closed doors. But if there isn't public support for it in Ukraine, it won't last there.