Zernouh abderrahman
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Does Washington increase the reward for dependency?
The endeavors of a great power when it does not wish to have a competitor, is characterized by the desire to maintain prestige and lead the world. It seems that the United States is still dreaming of the other parties' recognition of the objective data on the distribution of power, which no longer has any effect in reality. Will the recognition be clearer after the recent events? Can America put more pressure on its allies to push them to acquiesce in its desires and meet its aspirations, as has been the case for more than two decades, after the pressures caused by the existence of a second pole have disappeared?
By Zernouh abderrahman4 years ago in The Swamp
German bend on the Ukrainian bend
The echo of the Ukrainian war and its effects will reverberate for many years, but there is another turning point that seems to have suddenly arisen from it, which may have the greatest repercussions, in itself and with its far-reaching effects as well, which is the unexpected change that occurred in general in German defense and foreign policy, which is unique in its kind. Since the last global war. After that war, pacifism prevailed in German politics, which became a well-established tradition, motivated by the level of violence it practiced at the time and the resultant international and local results. The government of the new chancellor, Schulz, initially strongly resisted all American, Polish and Ukrainian pressures to budge this policy, or even to change the position refusing to stop the Nord Stream-2 project, without result. Until the time came when the Ukrainian torrent reached an extent beyond what the Kremlin circles dreamed of, and the Chancellor delivered a historic speech before the Bundestag, in which he announced that Germany had abandoned decades of restrictions on its trademark that prevented its military industry from contributing to military actions, and raised the German contribution to military support. for the Ukrainians. The most important was the announcement of allocating one hundred billion euros to support and modernize the capabilities of the German army, and the pledge to raise the proportion of military budgets to 2%, like the other partners in NATO. For the Europeans at least, this was an astonishing transformation, and in other circumstances it could have been a nightmare, as a result of which the European Union recently issued a document on qualitatively adjusting its defense and military policy, last week.. However, in fact German foreign policy was preparing Before the Ukrainian event, the ingredients for an important change, its introductions began in advance, and before the formation of the new (red-yellow-green) traffic light coalition government. This appeared in a major detailed report last fall. It was organized by the Institute for International Relations and Security in Berlin, one of the most important decision-making centers, which until two years ago was headed by the strategic figure whom we have known in the Arab world and Syria for a long time - and the Sudanese know him well now as the representative of the Secretary-General of the United Nations there, Professor Volker Peretz; He was then succeeded by another prominent academic and strategist, Nicholas von Baumhardt. This report starts from a vision of the reality of the current international system, to draw a new scheme for it that takes into account the new coalitions, and Germany has a greater role in it as well. In it, he revives awareness of shifts in international power, the loss of influence of Western powers, growing authoritarian models, weakening multilateral institutions, and pressing global problems such as climate change—all of which require a realignment of German foreign policy. In doing so, it is important to make an adequate and objective assessment of its capabilities, as well as the current room for maneuver, all of which should guide and define its goals and priorities. Accordingly, German foreign relations must be guided by reliable partnerships and new forms of responsibility-sharing in various fields, in addition to, of course, adopting dialogue as a basis for negotiating conflicting goals. The first is adaptation, as there are new conditions in foreign policy that have been underestimated. This relates to the rise of China, as well as the geopolitical ambitions of other countries to control strategic resources. The second is the change related to identity, by linking the change in the national self-image, and the impact of local political interests, on the one hand; And that change in the concepts of foreign policy roles at the present time; There is a repositioning of the state in international politics, different from the previous prevailing conditions. The third is structural change, internationally synthetic. There is an urgent interest in being on the international stage, an anticipation of opportunities to exert influence, and a desire to gain prestige or avoid losing it - these factors can inspire a more active participation in the formation of international politics, as in the cases of South Korea and Turkey - for example. their regional and global ambitions. Finally, there is partner change, because the scope and impact of foreign policy change will be highly dependent on the choice of partners and support groups. This could begin with a deepening of the processes of convergence in official behavior internationally. For example, if China appears to Germany simultaneously as partner, competitor, and adversary, joint coalitions will constitute a normative and pragmatic expression of interests and an arrangement of preferences in the exercise of foreign policy. The partnerships necessary for German foreign policy bring with it opportunities, but also consequences, so managing overall expectations, both internally and externally, is essential and of central importance, particularly in NATO, as well as in the European context. Orientation - for example - towards the important Franco-German partnership should not lead to a feeling of exclusion among other members of the European Union. Thus, “neighborhood” will no longer be a regional concept; “Germany needs “global” neighbors in different regions of the world, if it is to contribute to solving the problems of the future, as not only will burden-sharing arrangements be achieved, but it will also be important to develop a new set of tools to share responsibility and shape the future. together. In this scenario, the international system is no longer based on Paxa Americana. The latter is moving away to make way for a multipolar system with a bipolar at its core, of the two biggest rivals, the United States and China. These two - along with the European Union, India, Japan and Russia - would constitute the new union, the orchestra of the world's movement, relatively speaking. These six powers account for about 70 percent of global GDP and military spending, and 65 percent of carbon dioxide emissions. In this union model, a commitment to maintain close and flexible cooperation in order to ensure stability in terms of the current regional emergency here and there. The "six" mutually avoid interfering in internal affairs. The Union sees itself as the center of control in international politics, and it is superior in its practical capabilities to the United Nations and groups such as the Big Seven. That authority and legitimacy derives from the ability of the Six to find common answers and solutions to global challenges. These include the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the threat of terrorist networks, concerns about global health, and the effects of climate change. Senior diplomats do the essential work; They have a secure headquarters, possibly in Geneva or Singapore, where the secretariat is. Close contact between them is aimed at compatibility, and at preventing one member from surprising the others with isolated actions. However, when no agreement can be reached, even the sum of those powers will remain impotent, and their members can act unilaterally if they see their vital national interests under threat, and a member is expelled only if it repeatedly violates the interests of another party in an aggressive manner. Of course, there will be an important change in the scenarios and facts after the violence in Ukraine, which is not over yet. This brutal event developed new conditions that will have consequences for the position on Russia and the future of the relationship with it, and perhaps on its position that Putin wanted to develop, to return to the level of the days of the Cold War, when there was a world with two heads. That distinguished position at the time, with distinguished military capabilities, a decent economy, and great international influence, was no longer possible with an economy that ranked twelfth internationally, and a military force that the Ukrainian resistance had proven to be backward until now, with nuclear capabilities that only benefit in the event of suicide. Zelensky said last week that the missiles were descending on Ukraine with the words “To Berlin” written on it, to cause panic in it, so that it hastened to meet his demands and European support, instead of submitting to the pressure of Russian gas. He is aware of Germany's pivotal role in Europe, and in its future and that of Ukraine as well; The upheaval of Germany's defense and foreign strategy has revived and revived his hopes.. But German change and change carry larger and broader meanings, even than Putin's expected catastrophe in Ukraine. Often, China, in turn, was also waiting for the results of the Russian adventure, to begin its adventure in Taiwan. That possibility is diminishing... until now!
By Zernouh abderrahman4 years ago in The Swamp
Will the countries of the Maghreb pass the Ukraine crisis in peace?
The whole world is on the palm of an imp.. And while economists do not confirm, nor do they deny that even part of the scenario that many have summarized in the occurrence of famines in several regions of the world, including North Africa, will be followed by a wave of unrest and revolutions that may be the most violent and radical, the The question that arises sharply is, will the politicians there be able to avoid that fate before it is too late and things get out of control permanently? A few days ago, some Moroccan bloggers were disturbed by a Moroccan YouTuber named Osama Copenhagen’s talk on an Italian TV channel about hunger and poverty in Morocco, with the Algerian News Agency’s anger at a UNICEF report on “the Algerian youth’s suffering from unemployment, fragility, poor schooling and economic marginalization.” Although there was no direct link between the two issues, the common denominator between them, regardless of the accuracy or validity of these or that allegations, is that the reaction here and there revealed in both cases the existence of a kind of sensitivity in the official and popular dealing with any news or A comment indicating that there is a manifestation of a crisis that is knocking on the door of the two largest Maghreb countries. But can any one of the two countries be certain now that it has zero problems and zero crises, and that it is completely and definitively immune to all global economic fluctuations and shocks? It is true that it is about the two most populous countries, and the most powerful economies in the region, but did the Federal President of the largest economic power in Europe not refrain from saying, in his speech last Sunday via video link with Ukraine, “We will face in Germany more difficult days, and we must To be prepared to bear it, if our solidarity is not just empty promises, and if it is taken seriously” before asserting afterwards that “these days will change the world and us too, perhaps faster than we thought possible”? There is no doubt that Frank-Walter Steinmeier was not the first or the last Western official to warn his people of the harsh effects and repercussions of the Russian war on Ukraine in the course of daily life. If the man who heads the rich European country speaks with all that anxiety and apprehension about the vicissitudes that may be hidden in the coming days for his country, will the North African countries, which are less powerful and affluent than Germany, be immune to the tremors and storms that the Russian-Ukrainian war will cause? Then does the local and regional scene in the Maghreb seem to be on the verge of transformations, which this time may be deep and radical? Or will the effects that it will be affected by this crisis, and on the contrary, will be very limited and simple? Many may have heard what the Mauritanian president said in the middle of this month, in front of members of the Mauritanian community in Spain during his recent visit to Madrid, but few may have actually realized the significance of Ould Ghazwani’s words, or whether he did not only acknowledge with remarkable courage a reality that all Mauritanians know and live with. Rather, he went further when he said in that meeting: The question posed by the Mauritanian president's confessions, which were as frank as they were painful and bitter, is, was the man addressing his speech only to members of his own people? Or was he also implicitly addressing his Maghreb neighbors to tell them that his country, which, since its independence in the sixties, has paid the price of Algerian-Moroccan disputes and quarrels, is the one who pays the most today and will pay tomorrow, in the absence of a joint Maghreb project, the cost of the Russian-Ukrainian war in the North African region? There is no doubt that the last thing that can come to the minds of Libyans, Tunisians, Moroccans and Algerians is that the occurrence of a famine in Mauritania - God forbid - which is not ruled out by the Mauritanian president himself, could sooner or later affect each one of them, regardless of the size His wealth or his ability to get out of any similar problem or predicament he might face. It is not only their wrong economic calculations that make them think in this way, but also their narrow and limited political perceptions of the interests of their country, which lack any real sense of the unity of the Maghreb destiny, but can the Maghreb and its neighbor be hungry? The Europeans may well prepare for such a scenario, because they know that their countries will inevitably be the destination of thousands, perhaps millions, on the opposite bank. But what Maghreb country will really feel the seriousness of the threat and the imminent danger in the event of a famine or disaster in a neighboring Maghreb country? It is really unfortunate not only that the five countries do not have a collective and comprehensive vision for their national food security, but that part of the difficulties that one country may encounter, are usually and automatically attached to the condemnation of the other neighbour, so accusations are explicitly or implicitly behind them. What happens between Morocco and Algeria from time to time is not the only example of this. For years, for example, Tunisians have been attributing the reason for any shortage they find in some products and materials to the fact that they are smuggled into Libya. Although they did not directly accuse the Libyans of being behind the financial and economic crisis in which they are floundering, they have not yet been able to put together with them a joint plan to provide the two countries together with the basic needs of international markets. Everything that may be said here about the existence of an insurmountable obstacle standing in the way of any unified Maghreb action or endeavor, which is the political conflicts and disagreements, falls on the ground. To face the effects and repercussions of the Russian war on their economies? What political justifications might explain the failure of any Maghreb country so far to coordinate with Mauritania, which is the weakest link in the equation, and help it bear the consequences of the skyrocketing prices of energy, fuel and wheat? Unfortunately, everyone's concern is to assure his people that he will not starve, but wouldn't hunger have a domino effect? Perhaps those who said more than a decade ago that Egypt is not Tunisia and Libya is not Egypt will be better able than others to answer.
By Zernouh abderrahman4 years ago in Confessions
Will NATO borders extend to Ceuta and Melilla?
It is not new for the idea to be raised, but at a time when Putin is still determined to prevent NATO from expanding further east of Europe, who do you think can stand in the way of the alliance if it wants to expand from the other side, that is, to the southern borders of the continent? This may not seem possible or expected right now. The Ukrainian fire has not yet been extinguished, and no one can say for sure where it will spread, or whether its fire will recede quickly, or not?
By Zernouh abderrahman4 years ago in The Swamp
When some Arabs support the invasion of Ukraine
This happened in the summer of 1990. Iraqi forces invaded Kuwait at the dawn of August 2, and President Saddam Hussein made a series of statements stressing the centrality of the Palestinian cause, in a strong criticism of the world's handling of it other than what it does with its invasion of its southern neighbor.
By Zernouh abderrahman4 years ago in The Swamp
The Palestinian Prisoner on International Women's Day
Yesterday, humanity celebrated International Women’s Day, which falls on the eighth of March, and the United Nations chose to hold this year’s celebrations under the slogan “Gender Equality for a Sustainable Tomorrow.” It is clear that this choice emphasizes a first aspect related to the consolidation of women’s rights compared to men. And a second aspect stresses the social role of women in general and in sustainable development processes in particular.
By Zernouh abderrahman4 years ago in The Swamp
Ukraine and the question of nationalism
One of the pretexts that Russian President Vladimir Putin used to justify the military invasion of Ukraine was the presence of “Ukrainian nationalists” who hate Russian speakers and carry out “genocide” against them, especially in the east of the country. Although this pretext is part of Putin's lying machine, it is based on what is real, that is, the presence of nationalists in Ukraine. The difference here is between nationalists whom Putin makes “neo-Nazis” and “drug users” and nationalists who are present in every country, and more clearly, between nationalists whose role is to be exaggerated as part of political propaganda, and nationalists who are in fact part of an ideological and political combination that ruled the country in the past period , and can be governed by any other country.
By Zernouh abderrahman4 years ago in The Swamp
Turkey's position on Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Here is the Russian invasion of Ukraine entering its third week, and here is Turkey showing its policy since February 24, when Russia began invading Ukraine, that it will remain in harmony and coordination with the West and NATO, but it does not want to risk its deep economic relationship with the Russian Federation, and although Turkey has implemented the Montreux Convention and prevented more Russian warships from crossing into the Black Sea, but it does not intend to impose sanctions on Russia, as other countries have done, and it will make every effort to keep channels of dialogue open with Moscow in order to solve the problem of instability, and this has met Very welcome by the West.
By Zernouh abderrahman4 years ago in The Swamp
Wrecked Maps… Histories Wildfire
A person begins writing the stages of history when he finishes drawing the borders of geography, which are often drawn with blood, and where the map ends, history begins, and at the point where the friction of space and time erupts, war breaks out, and from the wreckage of maps and the wreckage of dates, man rebuilds his world, and so it was.
By Zernouh abderrahman4 years ago in The Swamp
