Why Sanctions on Russia Matter

Vladimir Putin is a delusional, narcissistic psychopath. Having power is a kind of degenerative disease: the longer you have it, the more it rots your mind and disconnects you from the lived experience of ordinary people. Putin has been the President or Prime Minister of Russia since 1999.

It's worth taking a moment to look at some of the absurd stunts Putin has pulled over the years to make himself look personally impressive. He showed off planted ancient Greek amphorae that he supposedly found while diving. Putin was feted by Russian media for saving a television crew from an attack by a Siberian tiger in the wild. At age 68, he scored 9 goals in a hockey match. The high council of Russian bikers unanimously voted him into the Hell's Angels with the nickname of Abaddon. He has taekwondo black belt and honorary judo title, or he had. Last year he was named "Russia’s Sexiest Man Alive." There was also the time he had an art exhibition, The 12 Labors of Putin.

I say all this to drive home the idea that there can be no good faith negotiation with Putin over Ukraine, because he is a liar living in a world of delusion.

Putin has never accepted the fall of the Soviet Union or the existence of the state of Ukraine. Now he has made a play to rebuild the Russian Empire by attacking Ukraine. He banked on there being little resistance in Ukraine, perhaps even that his forces would be welcome. It's hard to know how much of his own hype he believes about this invasion being a "police action aimed at denazification." Certainly in Kyiv, where a Holocaust memorial was attacked, few people are buying it.

Russian conscripts, being sent out with rations that expired in 2015, had little stomach to fight. It seems to have been taken for granted that Russia would dominate the air, when in fact Ukraine has been deploying Turkish made Bayraktar drones to rain hellfire on Russian convoys. The president of Ukraine defied all expectations by choosing to stay and fight over his personal safety--also defying three assassination attempts.

I would like to then conclude that Ukrainian victory is inevitable. Unfortunately, things aren't that simple. Having been disabused of the idea that the Ukrainian state would roll over and the people welcome them, Russia is now turning to its strength: long range artillery.

In 1999, Vladimir Putin ordered the complete destruction of the Chechen capital of Grozny. The Russian military laid waste to Grozny, killing tens of thousands of civilians. In Putin's own words, his troops "fulfilled their task to the end." Tactics have turned similar in Ukraine, with Russia unleashing terrifying thermobaric weapons on cities. In a choice between meekly accepting defeat or turning Ukraine into a charred moonscape, Putin will choose the latter.

Ukraine is still fighting. They may yet pull out an outright victory as it seems Russia's military was woefully prepared. Here though is where the West can possibly do the most good.

There have been calls to go to war for Ukraine and on the opposite end of spectrum, to ignore it as not our problem. I believe our current path of harsh economic sanctions on Russia (and aid to Ukraine) is in fact the best one. Because it pushes us towards the best outcome for Ukraine, and even Russia: a palace coup.

Currently Russian oligarchs are scrambling to move their superyachts to safe waters before they are seized. They're getting kicked out of their own businesses. They are seeing their savings evaporate as the ruble crashes. As companies have scrambled to put themselves on the right side of history, the list of costs to Russia has become lengthy:

Putin maybe willing to grin and bear all this, but the powerful people surrounding him have to be getting fed up. Putin meanwhile has become more isolated over COVID, meaning he's less well positioned to stamp out brewing coups. A power play must have occurred to the right people by now. This puts into context Putin's sad plea for 'normalization' of global relations, saying there is no need for sanctions.

So please, keep the sanctions up, they are worth it. And if someone out there objects to sanctions because the price of gasoline has gone up, then I have a message for you: next time you're at the gas station, go ahead and shove the gas nozzle up your ass. Get it really far up there. Putin's brutality didn't start in Ukraine and it won't end there. For decades authoritarians have been banking on the West being unwilling to pay any real price to keep them in check, and we keep proving them right. This is a chance to actually make a stand for something.

To the ordinary Russians who want no part of this war (which is certainly not all of them) I am sorry that you are being made to suffer for your leaders' hubris. However, I am more sympathetic to people of Ukraine who are fighting for their lives. Russians, please do go out and protest--the state security apparatus is stretched thin now, energy spent suppressing dissent at home is energy that can't be used on Ukraine.

And I would like to close out with, what is for real, the lyrics to the Ukrainian national anthem:

The glory and freedom of Ukraine has not yet perished

Luck will still smile on us brother-Ukrainians.

Our enemies will die, as the dew does in the sunshine,

and we, too, brothers, we'll live happily in our land.

We’ll not spare either our souls or bodies to get freedom

and we’ll prove that we brothers are of Kozak kin.