Taiwan: Is It Ready?

Taiwan has always been that rogue runaway island that gets under China's skin. The island of the Chinese Nationalists who fled the mainland when Mao and his Communists took over. Ever since then, China has regarded the island as a runaway province that must be brought back under China's boot.

Taiwan is in a funny position because the US does not recognise it as a sovereign state. However, the Americans supply Taipei, the capital of Taiwan, with weapons. Much like they do with Israel and Ukraine. The US would also come to Taiwan's aid, or so it is thought, if China attacked Taiwan. China has been asserting itself in the Pacific, as China sees this area as its backyard. China has disputes with the Philippines, Japan, and others. The US also has a presence in these waters, which irritates China. From a Chinese point of view, it sees enemies everywhere with very few Allies. Not only from the presence of its arch-rival, the US, but also with Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and South Korea, as mentioned.

Trump, from his first term in office to his second one, seems to have had a Chinese obsession. Every other word was "China", "China", and "China". Militarily and economically, China is the US's greatest rival, more so than Russia. Xi and Trump were caught in a trade war earlier. But now things seem to have calmed down, at least for now.

China also backs the US's enemies like Russia, Iran, and North Korea. This is another bone of contention between the US and the People's Republic of China. But it's no more than the US backing China's enemies like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, etc. There are predictions that China might overtake the US this century as the ascendant power. Whether this will happen remains to be seen. Chinese foreign policy, unlike the US's, doesn't seem to be one of confrontation. China operates in the background with a more subtle approach. That's not to say the Chinese would never engage in a military adventure, but Xi is more cautious. Trump himself says he is a peacemaker and reluctant to drag the US into another forever war. Despite bombing Iran's nuclear sites and aiding Israel against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran. Trump put pressure on both Iran and Israel to stop their 12-day conflict, and after some hiccups, they did. Trump takes credit for stopping the recent India-Pakistan war. A war in Africa, etc.

Trump has his eye on his historical legacy. He would like the Nobel Peace Prize. Buddy Bibi Netanyahu has written a letter to the Nobel Committee nominating Trump for the prize. If somehow Trump received this prize, it would be his destiny and legacy fulfilled. Other's rightly so, would question this. But one remembers when Barack Obama was given the Nobel Peace Prize, but for what exactly?

In 2025, the shadow of China looms large over Taiwan. China has become bolder in testing Taiwan's resolve. Around Taiwan's territorial waters and in its airspace.

Xi has made it plain that he has desires for Taiwan. Xi has announced that China could invade Taiwan in the latter part of this decade. China has conducted an imagined invasion scenario should it choose to invade Taiwan. Using land, sea, and air forces. Taiwan itself has recently been staging events. These Taiwanese military drills have been rehearsed for all scenarios. Observers have been watching these events. These observers are from the Taiwanese military. Some have expressed worry based on these observations that Taiwan might not be war-ready.

However, in the likely scenario that China attacks Taiwan, surely the island would not face China alone? The US, Japan, and South Korea would protect Taiwan, wouldn't they? And with that thought, would China wish to risk all with such opposition? China's thinking might be that Russia invaded Ukraine with no US or NATO forces intervening. Ukraine's war effort is kept going by Western-supplied armaments. This has kept Russia at bay, although it now holds much Ukrainian territory. So, as there was no direct Western intervention when Russia invaded Ukraine, will this encourage Xi to attack Taiwan?

As with everything in world events, one cannot tell what will happen. Pundits, experts, etc, may say this or that, but it is all speculation.

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