60-Day Ceasefire.

At long last, a cease-fire brokered by Biden and Macron has come to fruition. Many Lebanese and Israeli civilians are heading home. In northern Israel and southern Lebanon, the people returning home will be going home to devastation. Their houses are destroyed and everything they have ever known will be gone. However, the fact that civilians can go home at least is a start.

The war started between Hezbollah and Israel last October. Hezbollah started firing on Israel on 8 October in support of its ally Hamas. It was low intensity with both sides lobbing all manner of projectiles at each other. However, civilians in Israel moved south as Hezbollah devastated northern Israel with deaths and injuries by the score. Likewise, Lebanese civilians moved north as they too faced death, destruction, and devastation by Israel.

It was only in September, October, and November that the war between the two escalated. Israel invaded southern Lebanon to push back Hezbollah north of the Litani River. Netanyahu said he wanted Israeli civilians to move back to their homes devastated by Hezbollah. Israel heavily bombed Hezbollah's infrastructure and took out top commanders, leaders, and propaganda leaders. Israel's biggest scalp was killing Hasan Nasrallah who had been a figurehead for the movement. His successor was also taken out. Hezbollah's deputy leader was confirmed as its new leader. Despite all this, Hezbollah was still able to do damage to Israel. Many dead and wounded IDF soldiers came back from the battlefield into Israel.

During this time Israel and Iran (Hezbollah's backer) exchanged attacks on each other directly. Israel and Iran though enemies had never attacked each other before. Many feared this would spiral out of control and a major conflict might erupt between the two. The ball for retaliation now lies with Iran, however, let us hope Iran thinks twice about attacking Israel. Tit for tat leads to more escalation and returns the Middle East to the violence of the Old Testament.

Why now have Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire? Israel's army has been fighting on multiple fronts, mainly in Gaza and Lebanon. Israeli soldiers are exhausted, the cost to Israel's economy has been huge, and many Israelis wanted a ceasefire. They were sick and tired of a year-long war with Hezbollah. Netanyahu himself is under pressure now he is- wanted for war crimes. When and if he is no longer Prime Minister he faces corruption charges within Israel itself. Netanyahu has to tread carefully between the extreme wings of his coalition government and the moderate wings (if there are any!). Many Israeli reservists were refusing to report for duty. No doubt about it, Israel has weakened and damaged Hezbollah. However, Hezbollah put up stiff resistance where the IDF got bogged down unable to make any progress. So, this 60-day ceasefire has come at the right time.

Hezbollah has been weakened, and many of its fighters and leaders are dead. Much of its arsenal and infrastructure has been destroyed. So Hezbollah too, will be glad to end this war. Lebanon has been destroyed in places which were allegedly strongholds of Hezbollah. Cities like Tyre and the capital Beirut took devastating hits. Lebanon's economy was already suffering and now has to deal with the aftermath of this war.

So this 60-day ceasefire will be a breathing space for Israel and Lebanon to take stock. Hopefully, this ceasefire will hold and after that peace for a long time. The last Hezbollah-Israel war was in 2006. Israel and Hezbollah will be licking their wounds until the next conflict kicks off. This is a very pessimistic view of the situation but that is how it goes in the Middle East. For now, citizens of Israel and Lebanon can breathe easy at least for a while.

Under the plan, the Israeli army will withdraw from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah will withdraw north of the Litani River. And the under-equipped Lebanese army will fill the void that both forces have left. No doubt, the US and the French (the brokers of the deal) will have to help the Lebanese army keep control of southern Lebanon. Not with boots on the ground but perhaps in weapons and money. A word of caution though in 2006 the Lebanese army filled the vacuum that Israel and Hezbollah had left when that war ended. Even a UN force was put in place (which is still there and came into conflict with Israeli forces) but somehow that plan didn't work.

Unfortunately, Hezbollah was allowed to build up and move closer to the border. The Lebanese army was probably frightened, understaffed, and under-equipped to take on Hezbollah. Just like the situation now. The French and the Americans are supposed to be overviewing this peace plan. They will have to make sure the terms of the peace plan work. So we do not find ourselves here again in another round of war between Israel and Hezbollah.

With Hezbollah now out of the war, this leaves Israel free to concentrate on Gaza. Another disaster where 43,000 Gazans lie dead, infrastructure has been all but destroyed, and living conditions for Gazans are hell where inadequate relief barely keeps them alive. Israel too has paid a price where many IDF soldiers are dead or maimed. Israel stands accused of all kinds of barbaric acts against Gazans. Israeli soldiers post these on TikTok with no shame in fact, for many it's a thing of amusement.

Despite all of this Hamas remains a clear and present danger for Israeli soldiers operating in the area. And Israeli hostages or what's left of them are still under Hamas lock and key. Are we likely to see a peace deal soon between Hamas and Israel? One can live in hope, however, I will not hold my breath.