2025 Should Be Calm for Politics?

What a momentous year UK politics and world politics have been. We had the general election in July. Rishi 'Wishy Washy' Sunak and his Conservatives after 14 years were booted out of office. People wanted change and Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party won a huge election victory! Starmer's victory was likened to Tony Blair's victory in 1997. The Labour right or at least the centre ground of the Labour Party is back in control. Labour gained a 400-odd majority. The Tories were reduced to 121 seats, the Lib Dems gained 72, Reform UK 5, and the Greens 3.

The political landscape of 2024 has changed. Yes, Labour is the government and the Tories are still the opposition. However, as highlighted above, other parties got more seats or gained seats for the first time. Why, because as I indicated, people were/are fed up with the same old Labour-Tory system. The 'First Pass The Post System' that only serves the Tories or Labour. If we had representative voting the smaller parties would get more seats. Reform UK and the Greens would have more MPs. So that people who voted for them would not have wasted votes. The Lib Dems at 72 seats did well. Ironically, under the 'First Past The Post System'. The Lib Dems have campaigned for years for a more representative voting system. How ironic then, as Sir Keir Starmer pointed out to their leader Ed Davey, that they should do so well under the present system!

The most major event internationally was the re-election of Donald Trump. DT will be sworn in on Jan 20th and will have his second and final tenure in the White House. Will we get the same old Trump or a different Trump? Trump's appointees look like the typical people he would appoint. So many are thinking it will be the same old thing. On the other hand, others are expecting something different. We can only wait and see what happens when he takes power.

So in many respects with a huge majority and no general until 2029 it's Plain sailing for Mr. Starmer. Starmer has faced issues and is facing issues. He has that cushion of no general election until August 2029. He has a cushion of a huge majority in parliament.

There will be the local elections in May of 2025 the first since 2021. We will then see how well all parties do in that time going forward.

Right now according to Sky News Labour and the Conservatives are polling about the same. Reform's polling has increased since their 5 MPs were elected. The Lib Dems are not doing badly and neither are the Greens. However, out of all the parties, Reform UK are the ones who should be celebrating. Can they keep up and increase their support between now and the next general election?

We have seen populist parties and personalities become the government or have election success. Like Marine Le Pen and the National Rally in France. We have Giorgia Meloni and the Brothers of Italy in Italy. We have the AFD or Alternative for Deutschland in Germany. We have Vivtor Orban in Hungary. We have Donald Trump in the US. Reform UK with Nigel Farage wishes to repeat the successes of these parties.

It is the traditional right-wing party the Conservatives that now has something to prove. The fact they are neck and neck with Labour shows people still hold them in contempt. Kemi Badenoch their new leader doesn't seem to have given them any bounce. It is probably too early for the Tories to see any rise in their support. People gave them 14 years in power. They had their chance and might be in the wilderness for years. Reform UK is vying with the Tories for the right-wing vote or the popular vote. As long as Reform UK keeps growing it is eating into the Tories vote. Kemi Badenoch has much to contemplate and much to do if she wishes to get back voters. There is currently a spat between Nigel Farage and Kemi Badench with Farage threatening legal action unless Badenoch retracts what she said.