Where The Parties Sit in Polling.

Sky has been reviewing which political party is the outright winner of polling forecasts. The news outlet mentioned the Labour Party and where it stands in polls after it came to power in July.

Labour won a huge landslide on the 4 July. Conversely, if polls are correct Labour has dropped in popularity. Keir Starmer's party is on 26.6 % despite winning that huge majority just 5 months ago.

Analysis of 1000 polls across 75 years found that Labour was 1% behind their end-of-year score in 2016. This was when Jeremy Corbyn was Labour leader. When Corbyn was accused of anti-semitism. Whether JC was or is anti-semitic is best known only to himself. These days, however, and especially in the light of current circumstances in the Middle East, if you stand up for Palestine, you are accused of anti-semitism whether you are or not.

Labour was at an all-time low in 1981 when the SDP-Liberal Alliance was turning the political landscape upside down. However, Labour in this period, is ahead in the polls. Currently, Labour are 0.5 ahead of the Tories.

The election of Kemi Badenoch as Conservative leader does not seem to have had a positive bounce for the party. The Tories are on 26% just 2 points ahead of when Liz Truss was Prime Minister.

Reform UK are several points behind the Conservatives. Ed Davey did very well in the general election. However, their current support is at 11.8 %. The Greens are on 7.7 %.

Based on the above results as highlighted by Sky News the overall winners are Reform UK. Reform was a startup party for Nigel Farage in 2019. The party then was called the Brexit Party. The party campaigned that the vote to leave the EU should be honoured. Many votes though that could have gone their way went to Boris Johnson. Johnson and his Conservatives won a landslide victory and I won't bore you with the history.

After the UK left the EU, the Brexit Party rebranded itself as Reform UK. Nigel Farage stepped down as leader and handed it over to Richard Tice. Farage then ploughed a career for himself as a presenter on GB News. As the general election approached Farage replaced Tice as leader. Farage sensed the right-wing vote was up for grabs. Farage, Tice, Lee Anderson, and others were Reform UK's first MPs. People voted for them because of the much-promised but little-delivered policies of the Sunak government.

Although 5 Reform UK MPs don't seem a lot it is under our present electoral system. For Reform, having 5 MPs is a foot in the political door. Farage and his party have set themselves a goal in 5 years. That foot in the door wants to kick the door open in the next general election. They want Nigel Farage to be the next Prime Minister with a Reform UK government.

Whether that is achievable depends on many things. Looking at our present voting system you'd think not. Reform UK like any other party are prone to how many votes they get. Maintaining their 21% will require much with the next general a while away. It's possible that their high number in the polls could dissolve. Especially, if the right likes what they see in Kemi Badenoch. There's also the prospect that Labour could still get re-elected. Also, one cannot right off the Lib-Dems. In my humble opinion, the best Reform UK can hope for is an increase in their support. Thus, returning more MPs and adding to their cause.

The thing is though Farage is a maverick and wants to imitate the victory of Donald Trump. A week as the saying goes is a long time in politics. The way politics is today despite our inflexible voting system Reform UK could form the next government. However, I remain to be convinced as I said.