Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Resumes Rally, Aims for $4,900 in the Near Term

The gold market has once again captured the world’s attention as the price of gold (XAU/USD) resumes its powerful rally — notching fresh record highs and sparking forecasts that the precious metal could surge toward $4,900 per ounce in the near term. This renewed momentum is driven by a mix of macroeconomic trends, investor behavior, and structural market forces. What started as a continuation of safe-haven demand has evolved into one of the most compelling bullish narratives across global financial markets in 2026.

Record Highs and New Forecasts

Gold has been on an impressive upward trajectory, with spot prices recently breaching $4,900 per ounce, marking an all-time peak amid persistent buying pressure and market volatility. In fact, major investment banks have revised their year-end targets higher, signaling confidence that the rally is far from over. Goldman Sachs, for example, has boosted its end-2026 price forecast from $4,900 up to $5,400 per ounce, citing robust private-sector demand and continued central bank purchases.

What’s Driving the Rally?

Several core factors are fueling this stand-out performance:

1. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates

A key catalyst behind gold’s bullish run has been expectations of continued monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Anticipated rate cuts weigh on real interest rates — the return on bonds and savings after inflation — making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. Lower real yields typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, reinforcing its appeal as both a hedge and store of value.

2. Weakening U.S. Dollar

Gold is priced in U.S. dollars, so a weaker dollar generally boosts overseas demand and pushes prices higher. Broader dollar softness — driven by fiscal pressures, slower economic growth expectations, and policy shifts — has helped gold maintain its uptrend, enabling the metal to absorb and then outpace profit-taking episodes.

3. Central Bank Buying Spree

Global central banks have been voracious buyers of gold in recent years. Emerging market economies — notably China, India, and Turkey — are diversifying foreign reserve holdings away from traditional currencies like the dollar into bullion. Estimates suggest central banks could add around 60 tonnes of gold annually in 2026, reinforcing structural demand.

4. Heightened Geopolitical Uncertainty

Persistent global tensions — including trade conflicts, geopolitical skirmishes, and strategic power rivalries — continue to drive investors toward safe havens. Gold’s status as a crisis barometer remains intact, attracting capital when risk sentiment deteriorates.

Technical Landscape: Bullish Momentum Intact

From a technical analysis standpoint, gold’s rally shows strength with continued support above key price levels. After regaining traction above $4,700–$4,800 per ounce, the market sentiment suggests these levels could act as new floors rather than ceilings. This concentration of support provides a solid backdrop for bull markets, with potential breakouts toward higher resistance targets.

Market indicators such as momentum oscillators remain elevated, though not yet signaling exhaustion. This suggests the possibility of additional upside before a meaningful pullback emerges. Traders and institutions are closely watching near-term thresholds — with $4,900 acting as a psychological benchmark and $5,000+ as the next strategic milestone.

Analysts and Institutional Views

Major financial institutions are lauding the near-term prospects for gold:

Goldman Sachs’ revised forecast to $5,400 per ounce underscores optimism among top tier sell-side analysts about structural demand drivers and persistent investor interest.

Broader Wall Street commentary suggests that sustained inflows into gold-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs), combined with continued strategic purchases by private and institutional investors, are creating underappreciated upside potential — especially in an environment of policy risk and currency repricing.


Potential Risks and Market Caveats

A bullish narrative doesn’t come without risks. Some analysts point out that temporary price corrections are possible, especially if the U.S. dollar strengthens or if inflation proves more sticky than expected. A stronger dollar or abrupt shift in rate expectations could create short-lived headwinds for gold, especially in highly leveraged speculative segments.

Additionally, geopolitical resolutions or improvements in market sentiment could reduce safe-haven flows, leading to periods of consolidation. As always, gold remains sensitive to the interplay between macroeconomic fundamentals and investor psychology.

What This Means for Traders and Investors

For traders and long-term investors alike, the XAU/USD rally offers several strategic considerations:

Short-Term Traders: Momentum strategies continue to favor bullish setups, especially if gold holds above key support zones like $4,700–$4,800. Breakouts toward new highs could present breakout trading opportunities.

Long-Term Investors: The broad macroeconomic trends — including central bank reserve diversification and lower real yields — support the case for gold as a strategic hedge in diversified portfolios.

Risk Managers: Gold can still serve as an effective hedge during market volatility, but proper risk management is essential given the possibility of corrections amid shifting policy landscapes.


Conclusion: A Bullish Outlook Toward $4,900 and Beyond

The XAU/USD market’s resumed rally into record-territory underscores gold’s enduring strength in a financially and geopolitically complex world. With forecasts pointing toward $4,900 in the near term — and some analysts even eyeing $5,000+ scenarios — gold’s appeal appears grounded in both structural and cyclical factors. Whether as a hedge against economic uncertainty, a store of value in a low-yield world, or a core component of diversified portfolios, the precious metal is once again at the forefront of global financial discussions. As always, investors should stay vigilant to evolving macroeconomic signals and market dynamics that can influence gold’s trajectory in the months and quarters ahead.