The 21st Century

Which century in human history holds the title of the most pivotal? Some argue it's the era of formidable military conquests, like Alexander the Great's campaigns in the 300s BCE, which significantly altered political and cultural boundaries. Others point to the rise of major religions, such as the emergence of Islam in the 7th century, which not only codified values but also spread them across these reshaped borders. And then there's the Industrial Revolution of the 1700s, a period that not only transformed global trade but also redefined humanity's relationship with work. It seems that the top contenders for the "most important century" are all marked by momentous change, where the actions of our forebears set the course for centuries to come.

So, given this criterion, is it conceivable that the 21st century, the present century, could be the most significant of all? The 21st century has already demonstrated itself to be a period of rapid technological advancement. The proliferation of smartphones and computers has accelerated the pace of our lives. Moreover, we stand on the verge of creating potentially transformative technologies, such as advanced artificial intelligence, which could completely reshape how people live. Simultaneously, several technologies at our disposal contribute to an unprecedented level of existential risk. This refers to the danger of our species facing extinction or encountering a catastrophe that permanently hinders our ability to grow and prosper.

The development of the atomic bomb significantly raised existential risks, and since then, we've only heightened the odds against us. Estimating the likelihood of an existential catastrophe occurring this century is an exceptionally challenging task. Very rough estimates place the risk of existential catastrophe due to factors like nuclear winter and climate change at around 0.1%, with the probability of a pandemic causing such a collapse at a daunting 3%. These figures are far from insignificant, as any of these disasters could result in the end of life as we know it.

Moreover, there is the potential for new technologies emerging in this century that introduce additional existential risks. Experts in the field of artificial intelligence have varying estimates regarding when we might witness the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI). According to some surveys, many believe that AGI could become a reality this century. At present, we primarily have narrow artificial intelligence, designed for specific tasks like playing chess or facial recognition. Even the most sophisticated narrow AIs are confined to their specific domains. In contrast, AGIs would possess the capability to adapt to and excel in various tasks, rapidly surpassing human capabilities.

Predicting what AGI might look like and what its coexistence with humanity could entail is a matter of great speculation. These entities could aid us in achieving our objectives, consider us inconsequential, or even view us as obstacles to be swiftly eliminated. Therefore, it is crucial that the values of this new technology align with our own. Addressing this challenge requires a blend of profound philosophical inquiry and meticulous engineering.

However, even if we succeed in aligning AGI with our values, a complex outcome remains possible. Let's imagine an AGI emerges with profound respect for human life and an earnest desire to solve all of humanity's problems. To prevent misalignment, it has been designed with rigid, unwavering beliefs. Should these machines become the predominant power on Earth, their inflexible values might dominate, resulting in the imposition of a single ideology on humanity that proves exceedingly resistant to change.

Throughout history, we've seen that no matter how enlightened a society perceives itself to be, it rarely measures up to the moral standards of later generations. Such a scenario of value lock-in could permanently warp or constrict humanity's moral growth.

The future of AGI is shrouded in uncertainty, and predicting how existential risks will unfold in the next century is a formidable challenge. There's also the possibility that new and more immediate concerns could overshadow these risks. Nonetheless, even if we cannot definitively proclaim our century as the most important, it's evident that the choices we make today could exert a profound influence on the future of humanity. Hence, it might be prudent for all of us to live as if the future hinges on our actions—because in reality, it just might.