India and Pakistan: The Recent Chapter in a Long History of Conflict

Introduction: A Fragile Peace Between Neighbours

India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed nations born from the violent partition of British India in 1947, share a long history of hostility, shaped by ideological, religious, and territorial differences—most notably over the region of Jammu and Kashmir. While both countries have fought multiple wars in the past (1947–48, 1965, 1971, and 1999), the recent years have seen the conflict evolve into a new phase: characterized not just by conventional warfare, but by proxy conflict, diplomatic stand-offs, and digital warfare.

This article explores the recent developments in the India-Pakistan conflict, particularly focusing on incidents from 2016 onwards, and analyzes the current state of relations between the two countries.

The 2016 Uri Attack and India’s Surgical Strikes

Tensions escalated dramatically on 18 September 2016, when four heavily armed militants attacked an Indian Army base in Uri, located in Jammu and Kashmir. The attack resulted in the death of 19 Indian soldiers and was attributed to the Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed.

In response, India conducted what it described as "surgical strikes" on 29 September 2016 across the Line of Control (LoC), targeting militant launch pads. This marked a significant shift in India's military doctrine—from strategic restraint to a more proactive approach.

Pakistan denied the surgical strikes, calling them a fabrication. However, the strikes were a turning point in the public and political discourse in India, portraying a more assertive foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Pulwama and Balakot: Bringing the Conflict to the Edge

On February 14, 2019, a suicide bombing in Pulwama, Jammu and Kashmir, claimed the lives of forty members of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF). The attack was again claimed by Jaish-e-Mohammed, a Pakistan-based group.

India responded on 26 February 2019 with an airstrike in Balakot, Pakistan, reportedly targeting a terrorist training camp. Since the war in 1971, this was the first airstrike across the international border. Pakistan retaliated by launching an airstrike the following day and captured an Indian Air Force pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, whose plane was shot down. However, the pilot was returned within days as a "gesture of peace," reducing immediate tensions but reinforcing how dangerously close the two countries were to open war.

The Revocation of Article 370 and Pakistan’s Diplomatic Campaign

On 5 August 2019, the Indian government revoked Article 370 of its Constitution, stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its special autonomy and bifurcating it into two union territories. This move was met with outrage in Pakistan, which had long claimed the region as disputed territory under international law.

Pakistan responded by:

• Downgrading diplomatic ties with India.

• Suspending bilateral trade.

Launching a global campaign against the move, especially at the United Nations and Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).

India maintained that the matter was internal and accused Pakistan of internationalizing an issue meant to be resolved bilaterally under the Shimla Agreement (1972).

Ceasefire Agreement of 2021: A Glimmer of Hope

Despite heightened tensions, in February 2021, both countries announced a renewed commitment to the 2003 ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control. This unexpected move was widely welcomed as a positive development, as cross-border shelling had taken hundreds of civilian and military lives over the years.

For several months following the agreement, the LoC remained relatively peaceful. However, sustainable peace remains elusive due to deeper political and ideological divisions.

Current Status: Cold Peace, Hot Borders

In 2024–2025, India and Pakistan continue to share a "cold peace". There is no ongoing full-scale war, but mutual mistrust is entrenched, and the potential for escalation remains high. Several recent developments define this phase:

• Kashmir remains highly militarized with limited political engagement.

• Cross-border terrorism and infiltration attempts continue to strain the ceasefire.

• Diplomatic communication is limited, with embassies running with reduced staff.

• Water disputes under the Indus Waters Treaty occasionally flare up.

• Cyber warfare and propaganda have become increasingly prevalent on both sides.

Moreover, both countries face domestic political pressures that complicate peacemaking. In India, a nationalist political environment dominates, while Pakistan struggles with economic instability and shifting civil-military power dynamics.

The Role of the International Community

Although the world largely treats the India-Pakistan conflict as a bilateral issue, major powers like the United States, China, and Russia have played quiet diplomatic roles in diffusing specific crises, particularly during the 2019 Balakot-Pulwama standoff.

International concerns remain high due to:

• The presence of nuclear weapons on both sides.

• The risk of miscalculation or escalation from border skirmishes.

• The potential for terrorist groups to provoke conflict.

Organizations like the United Nations have repeatedly called for restraint, but have limited influence due to India’s firm stance on non-interference in its internal matters, especially concerning Kashmir.

Conclusion: Is Lasting Peace Possible?

India and Pakistan's relationship is one of mutual suspicion, historical trauma, and conflicting national narratives. The recent years have demonstrated that while both countries have exercised restraint to avoid full-scale war, the risk of escalation remains dangerously high due to the involvement of non-state actors, aggressive military postures, and domestic politics.