An Asteroid Might Hit Earth in 2032: How Scientists Are Tracking It and What We Can Do

A Football Field in Space: Meet Asteroid 2024 YR4

Imagine an object as big as a football field hurtling through space. That’s Asteroid 2024 YR4, and astronomers are keeping a close eye on it. Why? Because there’s a small chance—about 2.1%—that it could collide with Earth in 2032. While the odds are low, scientists aren’t taking any chances. Over the next few weeks, they’ll refine their calculations to determine whether this asteroid is a real threat or just a cosmic near-miss.

What Are Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) and Why Should We Care?

NEOs are asteroids or comets that come close to Earth’s orbit. They’re leftovers from the formation of our solar system 4.6 billion years ago. Most are harmless, but some can cause serious damage. Remember the Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013? It exploded over Russia, shattering windows and injuring hundreds. Larger NEOs, like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs, could be catastrophic. That’s why tracking them is so important.

How Astronomers Spot Dangerous Asteroids

Every night, teams of astronomers around the world scan the skies using powerful telescopes. They’re looking for tiny dots of light that move against the backdrop of stars—a telltale sign of an asteroid. Programs like NASA’s ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) and the Catalina Sky Survey use wide-field telescopes to capture massive images of the sky. These images are then analyzed by computers to identify potential threats.

But spotting an asteroid is just the first step. Determining its size, distance, and trajectory is where the real challenge begins.

The Race to Calculate: Will It Hit Earth or Miss Us?

Once an asteroid is spotted, astronomers rush to calculate its orbit. They use optical telescopes to track its movement and radio telescopes to measure its distance. By observing how bright the asteroid is and how its brightness changes, they can estimate its size and composition.

For 2024 YR4, the calculations are still ongoing. The asteroid is currently too far away for radar measurements, so scientists rely on brightness data and orbital predictions. The more observations they make, the more accurate their predictions become.

What Happens If an Asteroid Is Heading Our Way?

If an asteroid has even a 1% chance of hitting Earth, it’s reported to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN). This global collaboration of astronomers works to gather as much data as possible to assess the threat.

Amateur astronomers also play a key role. Groups like the International Occultation Timing Association (IOTA) use their telescopes to observe asteroids passing in front of stars. These observations help refine estimates of an asteroid’s size and path.

Can We Stop an Asteroid? NASA’s DART Mission Proves It’s Possible

In 2022, NASA made history with its DART mission. The spacecraft crashed into an asteroid named Dimorphos, successfully altering its orbit. This proved that we can deflect an asteroid—if we have enough time to prepare.

For 2024 YR4, scientists would need to know its composition. Is it solid rock, a rubble pile, or something else? The answer would determine the best way to deflect it. But space missions take years to plan, so early detection is crucial.

The Good News: Why Panic Isn’t Necessary (Yet)

While the idea of an asteroid hitting Earth is scary, the odds are in our favor. Most likely, 2024 YR4 will miss us entirely. Even if it does hit, it’s not a planet-killer. At 40 to 90 meters in diameter, it could cause local devastation but wouldn’t threaten civilization.

Plus, NASA has already identified 95% of the largest asteroids that could cause global damage. The focus now is on tracking smaller objects like 2024 YR4. With advanced technology and international cooperation, we’re better prepared than ever to handle a potential threat.

Final Thoughts

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a reminder of how small we are in the vastness of space. But it’s also a testament to human ingenuity. From powerful telescopes to groundbreaking missions like DART, we’re constantly improving our ability to protect our planet. So, while the asteroid might be heading our way, there’s no need to panic—science has our back.

What do you think about our efforts to track and deflect asteroids? Share your thoughts in the comments below!