Anthony Chan
Bio
Chan Economics LLC, Public Speaker
Chief Global Economist & Public Speaker JPM Chase ('94-'19).
Senior Economist Barclays ('91-'94)
Economist, NY Federal Reserve ('89-'91)
Econ. Prof. (Univ. of Dayton, '86-'89)
Ph.D. Economics
Achievements (1)
Stories (297)
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Was the Closely Watched Core PCE deflator a Bad Number?
Yes, it was a disappointing outcome! Moreover, things are likely to get worse for several more months. The Federal Reserves' monetary strategy should eventually extinguish the rampant flames of inflation. Moreover, the current sentiment in Washington towards controlling its future spending means that fiscal policy will also support the move toward dampened inflation pressures over the next couple of years.
By Anthony Chan4 years ago in Trader
Applications to Form a New Business Hit New Records in 2021
Yes, it is! A record number of business formations for companies likely to hire employees reached record levels in 2021. This trend implies increased productivity (via the creative destruction mechanism that the famous Economist Joseph Schumpeter discussed in his research). According to his findings, the new firms that succeed usually introduce new ways to conduct business with greater efficiency as they enter the market to beat the existing competition. Additionally, to the extent that these firms hire more workers, it will also boost future economic productivity and growth. We should never forget that faster economic growth lifts all boats and raises the average standard of living for many individuals.
By Anthony Chan4 years ago in Trader
Should the Federal Reserve Be Shifting Towards a More Restrictive Strategy?
Yes! The November headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures rose by 6.8% and 4.9%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. These numbers greatly exceed the Fed’s inflation targets even though the Fed focuses on the personal consumption deflator (PCE) instead of the CPI. But a recent survey by Oxford Economics of the top “country experts” covering 45 economies revealed that supply-chain disruptions could peak at the end of 2021. These disruptions have been a source of upward inflation pressures. At the time of this writing, the Baltic Dry Index (a measure of transcontinental freight costs is already down 39.3% from its peak in early October 2021). The second source of price pressures has come from labor supply bottlenecks. December 2021, U.S. Employment Report revealed that the labor supply bottlenecks are easing. Based on the Household Employment Survey, the U.S. Labor Force rose by 564k and 1.1 million jobs net-new-jobs were created in November. The U.S. Quit Rate (according to the latest JOLTS Survey) dropped to 2.8% in October 2021 versus a reading of 3.0% in September. It was the lowest U.S. quit rate since July 2021. And finally, even U.S. energy prices as measured by the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price per barrel is off 19% from their peak levels earlier this year.
By Anthony Chan4 years ago in Trader
How a Macaw Bird Helped Me Meet My Mother?
My mom Patricia, was always a big fan of Macaw Birds, or as she called them, “beautiful Lapas!” She always admired them and placed visiting a country like Costa Rica on her bucket list so that she could one day meet lots of them, up close and personal. We often talked about her dream, but reality got in the way, and the trip never happened. Sadly, she never met the Scarlet or Great Green Macaw birds that call Costa Rica their home.
By Anthony Chan4 years ago in Families
Why Are We Facing a Labor Supply Shortage?
There are many reasons but let’s focus on the top ones. The shutdown of the U.S. economy with lots of stimulus gave workers time to think about what they liked, and disliked about their jobs. The top sector most negatively impacted during the Covid-19 pandemic was Leisure and Hospitality (L&H).
By Anthony Chan4 years ago in The Swamp
U.S. Homebuilder’s Index Rises in September 2021
Not really! While a 1.0 point rise to 76 in the National Association of Homebuilder’s Index (from a 13-month low last month), it remains below its reading of 90 (November 2020). In short, it may be premature to bring out the Marching Band to celebrate. We still have a supply-demand imbalance in the U.S housing market.
By Anthony Chan4 years ago in Trader
First Love
She was 15, and I was 13 which, highlighted the wide maturity gap between us! To most, it was clear that I was clearly out of my league. Yet, I stubbornly refused to acknowledge the obvious. Sheena's favorite phrase was, “I will never date little boys.” Those words always felt like a nuclear weapon heading towards the space between my eyes and still make me quiver as I vividly remember hearing those words more than 50 years ago.
By Anthony Chan4 years ago in Humans
