Would Ned Flanders vote for Trump?

The US 2020 elections will be close, no matter what the polls currently say. Analysts seem to think it is all going to come down to a few key counties in certain battleground states, and the whole thing will swing one way or another depending on the opinions (and beliefs) of certain key demographic groups.

There have been many studies and articles calculating and polling the latino and black vote, but we need to consider a group of people that sometimes go unnoticed, but who also constitute a very large section of the population: the suburban white christian.

The ever smiling, church-going, jumper-wearing and almost annoyingly helpful neighbor we all have on our street (if you don't have one, it is probably you!) might just tip the balance of this election, and while some believe this demographic will vote Republican no matter what, recent polling suggests it is not quite as simple as that.

The Pew Research Centre ran a poll late September 2020 and found that while the average white Christian is still a loyal right-winger, the support that always seemed like a given for the republican party is wavering.

From the looks of it, the President can still largely count on the average Ned Flanders' vote, but his recent behaviour may have caused some Christians to no longer tolerate mr Trump as a leader.

The biggest swing seems to be happening in the White Catholic community. Among White Catholic voters, Trump is ahead of Biden by 8 percentage points: 52% in this group say they would vote for Trump (or lean that way) if the election were held today, while 44% favor Biden. According to Pew Research Centre, Trump was 19 points ahead in their earlier summer poll.

This is despite Trump appointing yet another hard-line Catholic to the Supreme Court yesterday. We already know that the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett will help Trump if the vote is disputed, but with less than a week to go, was this appointment too late to make a difference when it comes to the vote?

On the other side of the aisle (see what I did there? church aisle, not political aisle), reveal that white Protestants who do not consider themselves to be evangelical or who consider themselves to be born-again have also dropped in support: Pew has 53% saying they would vote for Trump, down from 59% in the summer poll.

These changes may seem small, but can make all the difference in key battleground states with high levels of catholic or born-again christian communities such as Pennsylvania. Trump has been campaigning hard to get Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes.

However, among white Christian Evangelicals, Trump support remains strong, but not unwavering: White evangelical Protestants have slipped slightly in their support for Trump, though they remain overwhelmingly loyal to the republican party: Pew polling this month has 78% of White evangelicals intend to vote for Trump, compared with 83% who said this in their earlier summer poll.

To quote the Pew Research Centre's findings: "White Christians are a key segment of the electorate because they make up roughly 44% of U.S. registered voters. Roughly 7% of registered voters are Black Protestants, 5% are Hispanic Catholics, 2% are Jewish and 28% are religiously unaffiliated."

Despite this loss of white Christian support, the democratic hopeful, Joe Biden, doesn't seem to have benefitted from this at all. Some evangelicals may vote for a third party, and some may not vote at all (pew figures have these evangelical swing voters at very low, almost statistically insignificant gains for Biden).

Biden's main Christian support is overwhelmingly Black Protestants and Hispanic Catholics, with almost 90% of black protestants expected to turn out for the democratic nominee. Biden is also doing great among Jews and Atheists/Agnostics.

So, how would Ned Flanders vote? Well, this lovable Simpsons character is considered to be a devout Evangelical Christian, and while Simpson characters don't seem to have aged in 30 years, he is supposed to be in his 60s, so it is not looking good for a Flanders Biden endorsement. However, he may not vote for Trump either; Trump's behaviour in the past 4 years might just keep some Neds at home. I'm sure Stormy Daniels and "Pussy Grabbing" may not be exactly what the Bible-faithful had in mind for a president.

The other important thing to consider is that the Neds of this world are very community-orientated, and usually get very involved in elections, whether it is campaigning, polling, or helping out at the poll centre. So Ned staying at home might not just stop one vote for Trump, it may be preventing several others he may have convinced while campaigning.

When in doubt, Ned may stay home, and not do or say anything. If you are a Biden supporter, figures suggest that your best hope at a Trump defeat may just be a matter of screaming "Shut up Flanders!"

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References: www.pewresearch.org