Will South Sudan Get Dragged Into Sudan’s Civil War?

Sudan’s brutal civil war, now stretching far beyond initial expectations, has destabilized one of Africa’s most fragile regions. As fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues, attention is increasingly turning southward. The question many analysts are now asking is troubling but unavoidable: could South Sudan be dragged into Sudan’s civil war?

While South Sudan is technically a separate nation, its political, economic, and security ties with Sudan run deep. Geography, history, and unresolved conflicts make the world’s youngest country particularly vulnerable to spillover effects from the chaos unfolding across its northern border.

A Shared History That Still Shapes the Present

Sudan and South Sudan were once a single country, divided only in 2011 after decades of civil war. Despite independence, many unresolved issues remained—oil revenue sharing, disputed border areas like Abyei, and cross-border ethnic ties. These unresolved tensions mean instability in Sudan rarely stays contained.

South Sudan’s own civil war between 2013 and 2018 left deep scars. Although a fragile peace agreement is technically in place, armed groups remain active, political rivalries persist, and state institutions remain weak. In such an environment, external shocks—like Sudan’s ongoing war—can easily tip the balance.

Refugees and Humanitarian Pressure

One of the most immediate spillover risks is the mass movement of refugees. Since the fighting began in Sudan, hundreds of thousands have fled toward South Sudan, seeking safety. While South Sudan has kept its borders relatively open, it is ill-equipped to absorb such large numbers.

Food shortages, limited healthcare, and poor infrastructure already plague the country. The arrival of refugees strains local communities, increases competition for scarce resources, and risks fueling communal tensions. History shows that refugee crises, when poorly managed, can quickly become security crises.

Armed Groups and Border Insecurity

Another major concern is the movement of armed groups across porous borders. South Sudan’s borders are vast and largely unpoliced, making them easy corridors for weapons smuggling, fighters, and illegal trade.

Some armed actors in Sudan have historic links to militias inside South Sudan. There is growing fear that Sudan’s warring factions could use South Sudanese territory for logistics, recruitment, or sanctuary—either intentionally or through negligence. If that happens, South Sudan could be drawn into the conflict whether it wants to be or not.

Oil: A Dangerous Economic Dependency

Oil is South Sudan’s economic lifeline, accounting for nearly all government revenue. Crucially, South Sudan’s oil exports depend on pipelines running through Sudan to Port Sudan on the Red Sea.

Sudan’s civil war has repeatedly disrupted oil flows, cutting South Sudan’s income and worsening its economic crisis. If the conflict escalates further, prolonged pipeline shutdowns could cripple South Sudan’s government, making it harder to pay soldiers, fund services, and maintain stability. Economic collapse often precedes political and military collapse.

Political Neutrality Under Pressure

Officially, South Sudan has tried to remain neutral, calling for peace and offering to mediate. However, neutrality is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain. Regional powers, neighboring states, and international actors all have stakes in Sudan’s war, and pressure is mounting on South Sudan to align with one side or another.

Any perceived favoritism—real or imagined—could provoke retaliation or internal backlash. Given South Sudan’s fragile political balance, even diplomatic missteps could have serious consequences.

Internal Fragility Raises the Stakes

Perhaps the greatest risk factor is South Sudan’s internal fragility. Delayed elections, power-sharing disputes, and ethnic divisions remain unresolved. Economic hardship has increased public frustration, and trust in political leadership is thin.

If Sudan’s war worsens economic conditions or fuels armed mobilization inside South Sudan, existing fault lines could reopen. In such a scenario, South Sudan would not simply be affected by Sudan’s war—it could become entangled in it.

Can South Sudan Avoid the Conflict?

Avoiding involvement will require deliberate action. Strengthening border controls, investing in refugee support, maintaining strict political neutrality, and accelerating internal reforms are all essential. International support—financial, diplomatic, and humanitarian—will also play a crucial role.

However, South Sudan’s ability to act is constrained by limited resources and weak institutions. Without sustained global attention, the risk of entanglement will continue to rise.

Conclusion

South Sudan does not want to be drawn into Sudan’s civil war—but desire alone may not be enough. Shared borders, economic dependence, refugee flows, and unresolved internal tensions place the country in a dangerously exposed position.

Whether South Sudan can remain on the sidelines will depend not only on decisions made in Juba, but also on how long Sudan’s war drags on and how much support the international community is willing to provide. One thing is clear: the longer Sudan burns, the harder it will be for South Sudan to stay untouched.