Why Iran Is Under Pressure — But Not Crumbling

Bowen points to several reasons why the regime remains resilient despite the most significant unrest in years:
Security Forces Remain Loyal: The backbone of Iran’s authority — including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij militia — continues to obey the state’s orders. These forces are deeply embedded in Iranian politics, society, and economy, serving not just as a military apparatus but as ideological enforcers loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. �
vijesti.me
Repression Is Systematic and Effective: The regime’s repressive tools are well‑honed from decades of suppressing dissent. Communications blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force have disrupted protest coordination, making sustained, large‑scale movements difficult to organize. �
vijesti.me
Economic Sanctions and Hardship: While sanctions and economic decline have fuelled public frustration, they have also become ingrained features of Iranian life. The rial’s collapse and skyrocketing inflation are painful for millions, but they have not, on their own, led to widespread elite defection or fractures within the security apparatus — a key indicator that a regime may be nearing collapse. �
vijesti.me
Bowen concludes that while tensions are intense, the current unrest has not produced the systemic breakdown necessary to enter the “sudden” phase of decline. The protests, albeit widespread, remain largely fragmented and leaderless, without a unified political strategy to supersede the current order. �
vijesti.me
What Would It Take for Iran to Enter the “Sudden” Phase?
Historical examples suggest that regime collapse often involves moments where parts of the ruling coalition — especially elite security forces — withdraw support from the leadership. In Tunisia in 2011, when the army refused to act against protesters, it marked a tipping point that triggered the rapid ouster of President Ben Ali. In Egypt, similar dynamics preceded the fall of President Hosni Mubarak in the same year, as the loyalty of military forces shifted. �
vijesti.me
In contrast, Iran’s security institutions have so far demonstrated cohesion. The IRGC not only enforces internal order, but also exerts influence in politics and business, making it invested in the survival of the existing system. For now, there is little evidence of significant defections or splits within this core power structure. �
vijesti.me
Economic Collapse vs. Political Collapse
Another key distinction Bowen highlights — and which political analysts emphasize — is that economic hardship, even when severe, does not automatically translate into political collapse. Iran’s economy has endured sanctions and currency volatility before, with citizens adapting to prolonged pressure. What remains elusive for opposition movements is a coherent leadership and alternative vision that can unify the diverse strands of protest into a sustained political force. �
vijesti.me
The Importance of Political Leadership and Organization
While the protests are significant in scale, they lack centralized leadership capable of articulating a clear plan for post‑regime governance or unifying various factions. Without this, the momentum remains unstable. Persistent unrest could continue, but it may not result in systemic change unless protesters and opposition figures find a way to connect and coordinate more effectively. �
Bakunetwork
Why Iran’s Crisis Still Matters Globally
Even if Iran’s government survives for now, the current crisis highlights deep vulnerabilities. The combination of economic downturn, social discontent, and external pressures — including international sanctions and geopolitical tensions — suggests that Iran’s political equilibrium is far from secure. Global leaders and observers will continue to watch closely, both for signs of further repression and for potential openings toward political evolution.
In conclusion, Bowen’s analysis offers a sobering reminder: an authoritarian regime may be under immense strain without being on the verge of collapse. Iran’s journey toward any dramatic transformation — whether gradual or sudden — remains uncertain, underscoring the complexity of revolutionary dynamics and the resilience of entrenched power structures. �
vijesti..