What’s at Risk If Iran-US Nuclear Talks Collapse?

A Tense Balance in the Middle East

The Iran–United States nuclear talks have long been a centerpiece of global diplomacy, drawing attention from world powers, economists, and security analysts alike. After years of negotiation, setbacks, and shifting political landscapes, the current stage of the Iran-US nuclear dialogue stands at a critical juncture. With mutual distrust growing, and global tensions rising from Ukraine to the South China Sea, the breakdown of these talks could carry far-reaching consequences for regional peace, global oil markets, and nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

Background: The Road So Far

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, was signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 group (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany). It aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in return for lifting crippling economic sanctions. However, in 2018, then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the deal, reimposing harsh sanctions. Iran, in response, resumed enriching uranium beyond JCPOA limits.

Since President Joe Biden took office in 2021, efforts to revive the deal have seen several rounds of indirect negotiations in Vienna and Oman. Yet despite some signs of progress, the talks remain largely stalled.

What’s New in 2025?

In early 2025, fresh diplomatic moves were made behind closed doors in Oman, mediated by the EU and Qatar. A “temporary deal” has been discussed — a limited agreement under which Iran would cap uranium enrichment at 60% purity, enhance international inspections, and halt new centrifuge installations. In return, the US would release a portion of Iran’s frozen assets and ease some oil export restrictions.

However, no final agreement has been reached. Iran insists on full sanctions relief and guarantees that the US will not withdraw from the deal again in the future — something Washington finds hard to promise due to its democratic political system, where a future president could reverse the decision.

Another new factor complicating matters is Iran’s growing partnership with Russia and China. Tehran has signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing and has become more openly involved in military exchanges with Moscow during the Ukraine war. These alliances have emboldened Iran, making it less reliant on a deal with Washington and Europe.

What Does Iran Want?

Iran’s goals in the talks are straightforward in principle, yet complex in implementation:

Total Sanctions Relief: Tehran wants all sanctions imposed under Trump and Biden removed, especially those targeting banking, energy, and shipping sectors.

Economic Access: Iran seeks unfreezing of tens of billions of dollars of its assets in foreign banks and the ability to freely sell oil and gas on global markets.

Non-reversible Guarantees: Iran demands a mechanism to ensure the US cannot withdraw again, like it did in 2018.

Nuclear Sovereignty: While willing to limit enrichment, Iran wants to retain its right to peaceful nuclear technology under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Regional De-escalation: Iran also wants an end to perceived "aggressive posturing" by US allies, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, and freedom to operate in regional affairs.

What Does the US Want?

The United States, on the other hand, is seeking:

Strict Nuclear Limits: The US wants Iran to reduce its uranium enrichment level to 3.67%, dismantle advanced centrifuges, and ship out excess uranium stockpiles.

Verification and Monitoring: Washington insists on full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), including surprise inspections and full transparency.

Extension of Deal Timeline: Biden administration hopes to extend the original JCPOA expiration dates, ensuring Iran doesn’t restart its program in just a few years.

Addressing Missiles and Militias: Though not part of the original JCPOA, the US wants to eventually discuss Iran’s ballistic missile program and support for proxy groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.

Regional Stability: The US wants to prevent a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and reassure allies like Israel and the Gulf states.

Consequences of Disagreement

If Iran and the US fail to reach an agreement soon, the repercussions could be grave and widespread:

1. Nuclear Escalation

Iran is already enriching uranium at 60%, just short of weapons-grade level (90%). Without a deal, it could move closer to building a nuclear bomb, triggering Israeli or US military strikes. This would set off a dangerous spiral of retaliation and war.

2. Middle East Instability

A collapse in talks may lead to confrontations between Iran and its regional rivals. Israel has warned repeatedly that it will not allow Iran to go nuclear. Increased skirmishes in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen are highly likely.

3. Global Energy Crisis

Iran has one of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves. Without a deal, its exports remain limited. As geopolitical tensions rise, oil prices could spike again — especially if conflict erupts or the Strait of Hormuz (where 20% of global oil passes) is threatened.

4. Nuclear Proliferation Domino

If Iran goes nuclear, other nations in the region — like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, or Egypt — may pursue their own nuclear programs, leading to a nuclear arms race in one of the world’s most volatile regions.

5. Impact on Global Diplomacy

A failed deal would undermine faith in diplomatic mechanisms and weaken global institutions like the UN and IAEA. It would also damage US credibility as a negotiating partner.

A Narrow Window of Opportunity

Despite these dangers, a deal is not entirely off the table. Pragmatists on both sides understand the cost of failure. Iran’s economy is struggling under inflation, unemployment, and isolation. The US, on the other hand, wants to avoid another war in the Middle East, especially as it pivots its focus toward China and the Indo-Pacific.

Domestic politics, however, are complicating factors. Iranian hardliners see compromise as weakness, while US Republicans are largely opposed to rejoining the JCPOA without tougher restrictions. Both sides are racing against their respective electoral clocks.