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What Happens to the Planet If Trump Gets His Hands on All of Venezuela’s Oil?

How U.S. control of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves could accelerate climate damage and reshape global energy politics

By Fiazahmedbrohi Published 5 days ago 3 min read

In early 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela would send 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States and that Washington may work with U.S. companies to revive Venezuela’s oil industry—efforts tied to recent political and military pressure on Caracas. �

theguardian.com +1

But beyond geopolitics and economics, the question many climate scientists, economists, and global leaders are asking is: what would this mean for the planet? The answer is complex, involving climate change, energy markets, environmental risks, and long-term global energy policy.

Venezuela’s Oil: Massive Reserves, Heavy Costs

Venezuela holds some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, concentrated in the Orinoco Belt. These reserves are mainly heavy sour crude—thick, energy-intensive to extract and highly polluting compared to lighter oils. �

Egypt Independent

Extracting this type of oil requires heating reservoirs, injecting steam, and using more energy than conventional crude. That process emits extra carbon dioxide and methane, two powerful greenhouse gases that drive global warming. �

Egypt Independent

Even before extraction, Venezuela’s aging oil infrastructure is prone to leaks and spills; environmental rights groups estimate dozens of spills annually, though the actual numbers are likely higher. �

Egypt Independent

Carbon Impact: A Bigger Climate Burden

If Trump’s plans lead to a substantial increase in Venezuelan oil production and export to the U.S., the climate consequences could be severe:

More greenhouse gas emissions: Heavy Venezuelan crude emits more CO₂ and methane per barrel produced and refined than most other oil sources. �

Climate Home News

Delayed transition away from fossil fuels: Increasing reliance on Venezuelan oil could slow investment in renewable energy and electric vehicles, undermining global efforts to limit warming. �

Egypt Independent

Higher long-term emissions: Even if production didn’t add massively to global supply, burning the additional oil would still pump more carbon into the atmosphere, accelerating climate change. �

Climate Home News

As climate expert John Sterman of MIT warned, boosting oil production “would make climate change worse sooner, and everybody loses,” since the planet is already close to exceeding agreed temperature limits. �

Climate Home News

Environmental Hazards Beyond Carbon

The environmental risks extend beyond greenhouse gas emissions:

Methane leaks during extraction and processing could increase atmospheric methane—a gas far more potent than CO₂ in the short term. �

Climate Home News

Infrastructure failure and spills could devastate ecosystems already stressed by climate change. �

Egypt Independent

Land and water degradation from intense drilling and steam injection could leave long-term scars on local landscapes. �

Egypt Independent

Given these risks, oil critics argue that expanding Venezuela’s fossil fuel output is counterproductive at a moment when global energy systems must decarbonize. �

Egypt Independent

Climate Policy vs. Resource Conflicts

Trump’s approach reflects a broader philosophy of maximizing fossil fuels rather than transitioning away from them. Critics say this mindset feeds what they call a “resource-conflict” paradigm—where nations compete for control of oil while delaying climate action. �

Egypt Independent

This has broader implications:

International tensions over energy can distract from cooperative climate strategies. �

Egypt Independent

Energy politics could hinder global climate agreements, especially if major powers prioritize oil access over emissions reductions. �

Egypt Independent

Perpetuating fossil fuel dependency weakens the economic case for renewables, delaying necessary technological shifts. �

Egypt Independent

One expert put it bluntly: “Whether in Canada or Venezuela, we should not be digging this stuff up.” �

Egypt Independent

Economic Realities and Production Challenges

Even aside from climate impacts, there are practical limits: Venezuela’s oil sector has been in decline for years due to underinvestment, corruption, and sanctions. Restoring full production—let alone exceeding past supply levels—would require tens of billions of dollars and years of rebuilding. �

chathamhouse.org

In other words, transforming Venezuela into a massive new oil exporter isn’t just an environmental challenge—it’s a technical and economic one. �

chathamhouse.org

What This Means for the Planet

If the U.S. successfully channels Venezuelan oil to global markets under Trump’s leadership:

Global carbon emissions would rise, making climate goals harder to attain.

Renewable energy investment could slow, weakening the race to clean power.

Environmental degradation could worsen, especially in vulnerable ecosystems.

Geopolitical tensions tied to fossil fuel access might increase, diverting attention from climate cooperation.

Ultimately, the planet’s climate future depends not only on how much oil is extracted but on choices societies make about energy, sustainability, and international cooperation. Expanding production of heavy, carbon-intensive oil challenges global climate commitments at a critical moment for planetary health.

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