Robert Jenrick is The Preferred Tory Leader.

Kemi Badenoch has inherited a Tory Party utterly devastated by last year's general election. The Conservatives were reduced to 121 seats, a complete collapse in Conservative support. What a complete difference from when Boris Johnson won the 2019 general election in a landslide. Rishi Sunak remained as Tory leader until another leader could be chosen as Sir Keir Starmer walked into 10 Downing Street, as Reform UK gained its first 4 MPs. A Tory election occurred within the party to elect a leader to succeed the hapless Hindu Sunak.

Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch, and other notables in Tory circles stood in the contest. Kemi Badenoch was elected leader, with Robert Jenrick coming in second. Badenoch is the fourth female leader of the party. Margaret Thatcher was the most successful female Prime Minister in the UK ever. Mention Thatcher today, particularly to people who lived through her reign, and you will see she is hated as much as she is loved. Those with a nationalistic or patriotic bent will remember her for her role as leader during the Falklands War. A war over the Falkland Islands, where Argentina invaded and claimed them as Las Islas Malvinas. The UK and Argentina fought each other on land, in the air, and at sea. The war cost both sides dear; however, Britain emerged victorious. That sealed Mrs. Thatcher's legacy as the greatest war leader since Winston Churchill, in the eyes of her supporters then and now.

Conversely, ask anyone in the North of England and the Midlands, and you may get a different answer. In the north Mrs Thatcher shut down the coal fields. Yes, the industry was out of date, but none of the miners were given alternative employment. Nothing could guarantee them work until they retired, as the coal mines did. Whole communities were destroyed and devastated by pit closures. Union leader Arthur Scargill led a miners' strike, which at times erupted into open battles between miners and the police. However, Thatcher was ultimately successful and Scargill was not.

In the English Midlands, foundries were shut down. The Midlands had a tradition of making various types of metal. These closures put many people out of work, and replacement jobs were not always readily available. Unemployment rose to 4 million in the 1980s, and most of that could be attributed to Mrs Thatcher's policies. I won't bore you with the other two female British Prime Ministers, Theresa May and Liz Truss. It's all out there in the public domain if you wish to know what happened to these would-be successors to Mrs. Thatcher.

This week is the Conservative Party Conference, where the current leader, Kemi Badenoch, is hoping to seal the deal within her own party and the public. That she is the one to back and carry Tory hopes of success for the party. However, a YouGov poll commissioned by Sky News might give her food for thought. Half of Tory members do not want Kemi Badenoch to lead the party into the next general election, circa 2029.

Robert Jenrick, on the other hand, is the preferred man whom many Tories wish to see as leader. 46% think that Kemi should stay as leader, while 50% say she should not. 49% feel she will not make it to the next election. Whereas 47% reckon she will lead the Conservatives into the next general election.

46% want Robert Jenrick to be the leader. 39% of Tory members said they did not want Ms. Badenoch as leader. If there were a pretend Tory election today, and it were head-to-head, Robert Jenrick would beat the likes of Boris Johnson, James Cleverly, and Priti Patel hands down. So that doesn't bode well for Kemi.

However, 70% had a favourable view of the current leader, but 73% were more favourable to Mr. Jenrick. 20% had a favourable outlook of others who would stand in any internal leadership contest. Mrs. Badenoch rejects any political pact with Reform UK. However, this view is tremendously out of step with much of her party. 64% want a pact with Reform and prefer Tory candidates to stand down for Reform UK candidates in key seats. 31% of Tory members would prefer this not to be the case.

46% want a full merger with Reform UK, and 48% would oppose such a move. Party members have made it clear they would not support a Labour Prime Minister in a hung parliament. They also would not want to go into a coalition with Labour either. Tories supporting such a coalition are 6% as opposed to 93% who would not even entertain a Conservative-Labour Coalition government. 73% of Conservatives would support a coalition government with Reform UK. While 25% of Tories questioned said they would not want that.