Reform Would Win Today.

Nigel Farage's greatest triumph was the Brexit Referendum in 2016. When the UK voted to leave the European Union. When, finally, in 2019, the Brexit Party (later Reform UK) stepped aside, allowing Boris Johnson to win a landslide negotiated with the EU to leave. So, how does leaving the UK look today? The Tories and the Brexit Party promised we would get back control of our borders. People who voted for the Conservatives and supported Nigel Farage were fed up with European migrants coming here. However, the biggest number of migrants coming here, illegal or legal, were/are non-Europeans. So, we stopped the free movement of Europeans coming here. Europeans coming here must get a visa via the points system, like any other immigrant now. Now we have hordes of people coming across the channel, seemingly with no real answer. And the immigration of non-Europeans remains larger than that of Europeans coming here. So, if you wanted to stop or reduce migrants, refugees, immigrants, that mantra of "Controlling our borders" really worked out well, didn't it!!!

The economic state of the country has worsened. We had free trade with our EU partners. Trucks queuing at Dover could easily travel across the continent unhindered. Now that we are out of the EU, all that has stopped. Vehicles have to queue now as they have their papers and passports checked before they are allowed to enter the EU. Businesses find it harder to do business with the EU. We think making trade deals with the US, India, Japan, Australia, etc, will fill that gap. Whether it will or not, I don't know I'm not an economist. The EU remains the biggest trading area we have ever had, at least in modern times. No doubt, trade with Europe is still going on, but can it be as good as when we were inside the trading area?

And who was responsible for telling us life would be better outside of the EU? Nigel Farage, of course, who told us everything would be rosy on the other side. And as I have illustrated in the above paragraph, it's turned out for many anything but. Now, Mr. Farage formerly of the Brexit Party and now Reform UK, are leading in the polls and has been for some time. People are listening to him again about unfettered immigration and migration. Yes, Nigel Farage has a point, and there is reason to be worried about limitless numbers of people coming here. The UK does depend on immigrants to keep our NHS running, for example, and in a myriad of other roles. However, Native Brits are concerned about too many people coming here. Parts of the UK already look unrecognisable from how the country used to be. That's not xenophobic, it's a fact. People coming here who want to contribute to the UK legally are fine as long as it is controlled.

It is the constant, never-ending number of people coming here that is getting people's goat. Muslim men of Pakistani origin exploiting Native Girls hasn't helped. People have taken to the streets up and down the country, protesting outside of hotels holding asylum seekers. People have been raising the Flag of St George and the Union Flag. Yes, some of it is no doubt xenophobic, but some of it is genuine. Native Brits are fed up with being called gammons, Karens, yt, just because they "want their country back". Again, some of it is xenophobic, like the "Unite The Kingdom" rally held by Tommy Robinson in London. But even there, not everyone was a far-right thug.

The Tories under Rishi Sunak had Stop The Boats and flying illegals to Rwanda. Now Labour has a one-in, one-out policy agreed with the French. This works by sending back to France illegal migrants and accepting legal ones. But how do we define who is legal and who is not? And, if we want to bring the numbers down and put off people coming here, will it work? Keir Starmer promised to "Smash the gangs" exploiting migrants and put a stop to or bring the number of migrants arriving down. However, he has failed to do either. So, with a restless Native population, what did Mr. Starmer expect?

There is even more bad news for Mr. Starmer and the other parties. According to a recent poll, if there were a general election tomorrow, Reform UK would be the largest party in a hung parliament. The YouGov MRP Poll sampled some 13,000 people over the last 3 weeks. The results would be as follows:

Reform UK 311 seats.

Labour 144 seats.

Lib Dems 078 seats.

Conservatives 045 seats.

SNP 037 seats.

Greens 07 seats.

Plaid 06 seats.

Others 03 seats.

So Nigel Farage, according to this poll, would more than likely be walking into No 10. For Labour, after their massive win last year, the writing is on the wall. For the Conservatives, it would be their worst defeat since the 1600s. For other parties like the Lib Dems or the SNP, their results could see them as Kingmakers. So, for the two main parties in the UK, usually Labour or the Tories, the message is clear. If a general election were held tomorrow, a year after being elected to power on 411 seats, Labour would be in second place to Farage's Reform UK. As for the Tories, now on 121 seats, going down to 45 seats would be abysmal.

However, the next general election is likely to be in 2029. So it gives the other parties time to take a long, hard look at themselves and combat Reform UK, if they can.