I am voting for Kamala Harris
In the long run, the only things that matter are the things that compound.
What are politics for and how to think about it
A perfect analogy for why we should align our beliefs to predict real-world outcomes is the role of bumpers in bowling. By using bumpers, we eliminate the chances of the worst outcomes (scoring zero) and increase the likelihood of reaching our goal. Similarly, grounding our beliefs in reality helps us think more effectively and make better predictions. Put simply referencing reality makes you think better.
As a voter, I believe I should use rationality to pursue my goal of making things better. Historically, I’ve voted Republican because of two core beliefs:
1)The main distinction between the core American political parties is that one prioritizes social concerns at the potential expense of economic outcomes(Democrats), while the other prioritizes economic strength, even if it sometimes comes at the expense of social concerns (Republicans).
2)Strong social outcomes tend to be downstream from strong economic foundations. I.E wealthy countries become more liberal.
This election, however, is different. The economic-focused party seems to have forgotten the basics of economic policy, while the socially-focused party has increasingly made significant policy, with more promising opportunities on the horizon.
A collection of bad economic policies
- Kalama Harris proposed a wealth tax (bad)
- Donald Trump proposed tariffs on all foreign goods ( worst idea I've heard this year)
- Kamala Harris proposed a 25k housing credit and prohibiting “price manipulation” ( The former makes no sense and the latter is mistaken)
- Trump wants to deport in mass, illegals that have crossed the border because they are causing crime and increasing housing demand.( The former is not significant and the latter is a nonfactor because all people increase housing demand)
This is a generational run for bad economic policies, but Trump despite a strong first term has gone too far. Even though I do not think his tariffs get passed his ideas are alarming.
I concede that Trump has the greater economic upside of the two candidates, but high variance is not what you want from a president. In the long term, the only things that matter are those that compound, and a 5% loss in GDP takes a disproportional amount growth to recover.
The Case for Kamala Harris
Taxes
It’s an economic reality that the wealthiest Americans are currently under-taxed. In an era where an individual can earn $100 million annually, the top marginal tax rate is only 37%—a rate that also applies to those making just $1 million. Meanwhile, corporations making profits of $100 billion are taxed at a mere 21%, a historic low despite record-high profits.
Raising these tax rates could reduce inequality with minimal negative economic impact, particularly given that wealth at the top is accelerating toward power-law returns in a globalized marketplace. The United States should leverage the economic advantage of having a 100 trillion dollar stock market to fund public goods that benefit the less fortunate, creating a virtuous cycle that strengthens the nation both economically and socially. The investments in public goods have the potential to strengthen America’s global dominance while improving the quality of life for all its citizens and the world. These tax policies are free billion-dollar bills on the sidewalks, Pick them up!
Innovation
The CHIPS Act, signed into law by the Biden administration, has proven successful, with TSMC achieving slightly higher yields in its Arizona facilities than in Taiwan. These chips are critical inputs for a wide range of tech products and help mitigate the risk of a supply chain crisis if China were to invade Taiwan.
Additionally, the Act is fostering the development of American human capital in this notoriously challenging area of manufacturing. A CHIPS Act 2 would further strengthen American position in an increasingly computational world where access to chips is an competitive advantage.
Artificial intelligence
In four years, AI is projected to become significantly more powerful. Therefore it makes sense to elect a leader with more economically authoritarian, pro-social tendencies—someone less trusting of free-market forces and more inclined to implement regulatory measures. We’ve seen this hard regulatory approach from figures inside the Biden administration already from Lina Khan with the FTC and Gary Gensler in the crypto space.
In the long run, what truly matters are policies that compound positively over time. Choosing a candidate with the most stable, less volatile economic policies can help ensure that, regardless of external shocks—whether rain, hail, or even asteroids—the American economy will continue to innovate and thrive.
God bless America
Atlas Aristotle
Implications of my introductory premises:
If we accept two key ideas: (1) that the primary distinction between American political parties is that one is pro-social even at the expense of economic concerns, while the other is pro-economic despite potential social trade-offs, and (2) that strong social outcomes tend to follow aligned economic foundations, we can see an interesting dynamic.
Supporting this perspective implies that the Right (focused on economic strength) enables the Left (focused on social issues) by creating the wealth that allows people the time and resources to engage in social progress. Wealth generation, in effect, provides individuals with time away from work or "productive means" to better understand and address societal flaws.
Moreover, of course the Left has shifted further leftward in recent years(and always will) as compared to the right, because part of its mission is to identify and address new social issues, whereas the Right is more focused on preserving free-market principles. This distinction also manifests in different time horizons: those on the Right either intentionally or not, often adopt a long-term, intergenerational perspective, while those on the Left tend to focus on more immediate, intragenerational concerns.
Sources:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-24/tsmc-s-arizona-chip-production-yields-surpass-taiwan-s-a-win-for-us-push
About the Creator
Atlas Aristotle
Trying to do my best
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The best things happen at the margins
I love humanity, but we have missed the mark every step of the way; it would not, in any estimation be far fetched to say that “goodness" is not naturally in the human heart. For all of our history, we have fought ruthless battles, broken in skulls, raped women, and pillaged villages; in a way that is who we are. It is a human being in its most natural state.
By Atlas Aristotle about a year ago in The Swamp
Taiwan Thanks Canada for Its Support Ahead of Prime Minister’s China Trip
In the often tense and closely watched world of global diplomacy, even a simple statement of thanks can carry enormous political weight. This week, Taiwan publicly expressed gratitude to Canada for its continued support, just days before the Canadian prime minister is set to travel to China. While the words may sound polite and routine, the timing tells a much deeper story—one about strategic alliances, democratic values, and the delicate balancing act Canada must perform on the world stage. This moment highlights not only Taiwan’s growing concern about its international standing, but also Canada’s evolving role in Indo-Pacific geopolitics. As Ottawa prepares to engage directly with Beijing, Taiwan’s message serves as both appreciation and a reminder of what is at stake. Why Taiwan’s Thank-You Matters Taiwan exists in a uniquely complicated diplomatic position. Claimed by China as part of its territory, the self-governed island is recognized by only a small number of countries as a sovereign state. Most nations, including Canada, officially adhere to a “One China” policy—acknowledging Beijing as the sole legal government of China—while maintaining unofficial but meaningful ties with Taipei. Against this backdrop, Canada’s vocal support for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait has not gone unnoticed. Taiwanese officials have repeatedly welcomed Canada’s stance on democracy, human rights, and the rule of law—values that Taiwan sees as central to its identity. By thanking Canada ahead of the prime minister’s China visit, Taiwan is sending a subtle but powerful signal: its relationship with Ottawa matters, even if it exists outside formal diplomatic recognition. Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and Taiwan Canada has increasingly framed its foreign policy around the Indo-Pacific, a region it views as economically vital and strategically sensitive. Taiwan plays an important role in this vision—not only as a democracy, but also as a global technology powerhouse, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing. In recent years, Canada has: Strengthened trade and investment ties with Taiwan Supported Taiwan’s meaningful participation in international organizations Joined allies in calling for peaceful resolution of cross-strait tensions While Canada stops short of recognizing Taiwan as an independent state, these actions signal a growing willingness to engage more openly with Taipei. For Taiwan, this kind of engagement provides international breathing room amid rising pressure from Beijing. The Timing: Ahead of a High-Stakes China Trip The upcoming visit of Canada’s prime minister to China adds another layer of complexity. Relations between Ottawa and Beijing have been strained in recent years over issues such as trade disputes, cybersecurity concerns, and the detention of Canadian citizens in China. China is extremely sensitive to any foreign interaction with Taiwan, often viewing it as interference in its internal affairs. Taiwan’s public show of appreciation, just before the trip, places Canada in a delicate position—caught between reaffirming its values and managing its relationship with the world’s second-largest economy. For Canada, the challenge will be to: Re-engage China diplomatically without appearing to retreat from democratic principles Maintain support for Taiwan without provoking unnecessary escalation Balance economic interests with national security and human rights concerns Taiwan’s Diplomatic Strategy: Gratitude as Soft Power Taiwan has become increasingly adept at using soft power diplomacy. Public statements of thanks, humanitarian aid, technology partnerships, and cultural exchanges are all part of Taipei’s effort to strengthen informal alliances. By thanking Canada openly, Taiwan accomplishes several goals at once: Reinforces its image as a responsible and appreciative international partner Encourages continued support from like-minded democracies Signals resilience in the face of diplomatic isolation This approach doesn’t confront China directly, but it subtly expands Taiwan’s international presence—something Beijing works hard to limit. What This Means for China-Canada Relations China will undoubtedly be watching closely. Any perceived strengthening of Canada-Taiwan ties could become a sensitive topic during diplomatic talks. However, Canada is not alone. Many Western democracies now walk the same line: recognizing China diplomatically while deepening unofficial engagement with Taiwan. For Beijing, this trend is concerning. For Ottawa, it is increasingly unavoidable. Canada’s message to China is likely to be one of engagement without endorsement—cooperation where possible, disagreement where necessary. Taiwan’s gratitude underscores that Canada’s actions resonate far beyond bilateral talks. A Broader Democratic Signal Beyond diplomacy, this episode reflects a broader global conversation about democracy and authoritarianism. Taiwan often positions itself as proof that Chinese culture and democracy are compatible—a narrative that challenges Beijing’s political model. By supporting Taiwan’s participation in global affairs, countries like Canada reinforce that message. Taiwan’s thank-you, therefore, is not just about bilateral relations—it’s about shared values and the kind of international order democracies want to uphold. Conclusion: Words That Carry Weight In international politics, timing is everything. Taiwan’s decision to thank Canada ahead of the prime minister’s China trip is no coincidence. It highlights the fragile but meaningful ties between Ottawa and Taipei, while reminding the world that Taiwan remains an active and engaged player despite diplomatic constraints. For Canada, the coming days will test its ability to balance pragmatism with principle. For Taiwan, the message is clear: every expression of support matters. And for global observers, this moment offers a glimpse into how modern diplomacy often works—not through treaties and embassies, but through carefully chosen words, strategic timing, and shared values expressed in public view.
By Muhammad Hassanabout 16 hours ago in The Swamp
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