Grave Moment’: End of US-Russia Nuclear Pact Comes at Worst Possible Time, UN Chief Warns
Why the Collapse of a Key Arms Control Agreement Is Raising Global Alarm
The world has entered a perilous new chapter in global security. On February 5, 2026, the last major nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia—New START—officially expired.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described this as a “grave moment for international peace and security,” warning that the timing could not be worse. Global tensions are high, conflicts are ongoing, and the mechanisms that have kept the world’s two largest nuclear powers in check are gone.
What New START Was—and Why It Mattered
New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) was signed in 2010 by U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. It had three key components:
Caps on deployed strategic warheads: 1,550 for each country.
Limits on delivery systems: Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers.
Verification mechanisms: On-site inspections and data exchanges to ensure transparency.
This treaty provided predictable structures for strategic stability, even when U.S.-Russia relations were strained. With its expiration, the world loses its last legally binding framework that limited nuclear arsenals and reduced miscalculation risks.
Why the Timing Is So Dangerous
The UN chief emphasized that this moment is unprecedented: for the first time in over 50 years, the world’s two largest nuclear powers will operate without formal limits. Some factors making this particularly dangerous:
Ongoing conflicts: Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific are already hotspots.
Strained U.S.-Russia relations: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has deepened mistrust.
Modernizing nuclear forces: Other nuclear powers, including China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea, are expanding or enhancing their arsenals.
Guterres warns that these conditions increase the risk of nuclear miscalculation and global instability.
Practical Implications of the Expiration
The end of New START does not mean an immediate nuclear war—but it removes key safeguards:
No limits on warheads and delivery systems: Both nations can expand their arsenals freely.
Loss of transparency: Inspections and data exchanges end, increasing uncertainty.
Higher risk of miscalculation: Without visibility, false alarms or worst-case assumptions become more likely.
Potential arms race: Competitive buildup may begin, reviving Cold War-style dynamics.
Global Reactions
World leaders and international organizations have expressed serious concern:
UN Secretary-General: Called the moment grave and urged renewed negotiations.
European and Asian leaders: Emphasized the urgent need for a successor treaty.
Pope Leo XIV: Urged both powers not to abandon the spirit of the treaty and pursue meaningful disarmament.
U.S. and Russia: While both expressed caution, tangible negotiations for a new framework have not yet started.
Looking Ahead: Risks and Opportunities
The expiration of New START presents both peril and a fragile opportunity:
Risks: Increased global instability, renewed nuclear competition, and potential for misunderstanding during crises.
Opportunities: Possibility of reimagined arms control for the 21st century, including:
Inclusion of more nuclear states
Addressing emerging technologies like hypersonic weapons and cyber threats
Renewed multilateral engagement for strategic stability
Success will depend on trust, diplomacy, and transparency—qualities currently in short supply.
Conclusion
The end of New START marks a historic shift in international security. As António Guterres warns, this is a “grave moment”—a turning point that could either:
Catalyze unprecedented diplomatic engagement, or
Lead to a renewed nuclear rivalry with uncertain consequences.
The next few months will be critical in shaping the future of global arms control and peace.
References:
United Nations News
Arab News
Investing.com
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