Gold Will Hit $4,400 by Q2 2026, So Any Correction Is a Buying Opportunity – TDS’ Bart Melek

Bart Melek of TDS says that since gold will reach $4,400 in the second quarter of 2026, any correction is a good time to buy. Gold prices are projected to surge to around $4,400 an ounce by the second quarter of 2026, according to Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities. Investors are anticipating a prolonged period of global economic uncertainty, persistent inflationary pressures, and a structural shift in central bank policy toward greater gold accumulation as a result of his bullish forecast. Melek is of the opinion that investors should view any short-term price corrections in gold as opportunities to increase their positions rather than reasons to sell. Several macroeconomic and geopolitical factors continue to support gold's long-term strength, which is the foundation of Melek's optimism. He argues that the days of low inflation and loose monetary policy are over, and even if global central banks keep interest rates higher for a while, real yields will probably stay negative once inflation is taken into account. Melek stated, "Gold thrives in environments where real yields are suppressed." "Investors will gravitate toward gold even if nominal rates remain elevated because inflation expectations will negate much of the yield advantage of traditional assets." Central bank demand is one of the most significant factors that influence Melek's forecast. As a hedge against geopolitical risk and the reliance on the US dollar, emerging economies, particularly China, India, and Russia, have steadily increased their gold reserves over the past few years. The World Gold Council says that central banks have been buying gold at record levels, and official sector demand is expected to be at its highest level in over 50 years in 2024. According to Melek, "as the global monetary order becomes increasingly multipolar, gold will serve as a neutral reserve asset, boosting its long-term value," he anticipates that this pattern will continue. Melek also cited the ongoing instability in geopolitics as an important support factor. Gold's role as a safe-haven asset has been strengthened by conflicts in the Middle East, heightened tensions between the United States and China, and uncertainty regarding global trade policies. Investors turn to gold for protection whenever the geopolitical landscape becomes unpredictable, he stated. "The recent events have demonstrated that such volatility is structural rather than temporary," Melek also said that the move to a lower-carbon economy and the ongoing fiscal expansion in advanced economies will make inflationary pressures worse, which could be good for gold. Green infrastructure, defense, and social programs are getting more money from governments all over the world, often by running huge deficits. Melek stated, "Fiscal policy is not going to tighten anytime soon." "That means there is more growth in the money supply, more risk of inflation, and more demand for real assets like gold." Melek is of the opinion that there is still a significant amount of upside ahead for gold, despite the fact that it has already experienced significant gains through the year 2025. Supported by safe-haven purchases and accumulation by the central bank, the metal has traded above $2,500 for much of the year. However, a strong U.S. dollar and rising bond yields have been cited as potential barriers to further gains by some analysts. Melek disagrees, claiming that rather than a reversal of the long-term uptrend, any pullback brought on by short-term profit-taking or technical corrections would be "a healthy reset." He emphasized that such corrections should be viewed as opportunities to enter or expand positions by long-term investors. He stated, "Smart money should take advantage of gold falling below $2,400 or even $2,200." "It is impossible to ignore the fundamental drivers—monetary policy, inflation, and central bank buying." One of the most bullish projections among major investment banks is Melek's $4,400 gold target for the second quarter of 2026, which is nearly double the current level. Although most analysts continue to be more conservative than TD Securities, analysts at Goldman Sachs and UBS have also raised their medium-term gold forecasts. Market strategists are increasingly agreeing that gold's next major cycle could last well into the second half of the decade, despite differing timing opinions. A sustained bull market appears to be being set up by geopolitical fragmentation, structural inflation, and a shifting global financial order. Melek concluded by saying, “Gold’s long-term story remains intact. Gold will continue to shine as investors seek stability and the world becomes more uncertain. Over the next 18 months, we anticipate steady price increases, with any corrections serving as excellent buying opportunities for those with patience and foresight. Gold could enter a new era of record valuations if Melek's prediction is correct, reaffirming the metal's status as the ultimate store of value in times of change and reshaping investment strategies worldwide.