Fromage Sorry Farage: The Big Cheese!

Nigel Farage must be a happy man. In the last few days, Reform UK has edged past Labour in a new YouGov poll commissioned by Sky News. Reform UK was slightly behind Labour in a previous YouGov/Sky News Poll. Now the party has topped this poll for the very first time. Whatever you think of Farage, his politics, or his party, he and they have impacted British politics perhaps forever.

With Reform UK topping the poll Labour has gone into second place. With the Conservatives coming in third. Ed Davey's Lib Dems are in 4th and the Greens remain in fourth place. The UK, if this poll is to be believed, (other polls are available!) is now a third-party system or race, if you like.

Kemi Badenoch had been riding a wave of brief popularity but the Tory leader has slipped. This puts Badenoch (Bad Enoch) behind Nigel Farage. Farage's ratings have risen above all of his rival party leaders.

Do Keir Starmer or Ed Davey have anything to worry about? One would imagine that their woes regarding the rise of Reform will not be as great as it is for the Tories. However, some Labour and Lib Dem voters may peel off and support Nige.

The more Reform rises the more the Tories will sink. Negotiations, arguments, and internal naval gazing will be happening at Tory HQ. The fact that the Tories have been consistently in third place may bring into question Badenoch's leadership. Badenoch has always been the leader since Wishy Washy Rishi Sunak vanished up his tail-pipe after losing last year's general election. So if you are a Tory supporter do you have to be patient and see how things go? Alternatively, they could put letters into the 1922 Committee against Badenoch (Tory MPs can). If enough letters of complaint are received that could trigger another Tory leadership bid. Frankly, I couldn't give a monkey's tail I could have said something else! That's a matter for the internal mechanisms of the Tory Party.

The fact that Farage is well ahead of his right-wing rival Badenoch will have the Tories worrying. What can they do to improve the standings of their Nigerian heritage leader?

Could it be because she is black she doesn't wash with Tory supporters or voters? That is a possibility, however, right-wing politics have become more inclusive in the UK. Look at Rishi Sunak the first Indian extraction prime minister of the UK. Look at Suella Braverman and Priti Patel two right-wing females of Indian ancestry who served in the last government.

Both espouse right-wing politics and would be at home with Giorgia Meloni, Marine Le Pen or Alice Wiedel of the AFD. To Badenoch and behind her back, questions will be asked about her leadership. Questions regarding her race, is she effective against Starmer, or is she right-wing enough? Conversely is she too extreme for moderate Tories?

I mentioned earlier, given the rise of the Nige (see what I did there!) should Sir Keir be worried? Working-class Labour voters who see their country changing through unfettered immigration may have warmed to Starmer's voice of cracking down on this contentious issue. However, if they see no improvement in this they may vote for Reform. These people are not necessarily racists or bigots. However, they are just worried about the number of foreigners (Europeans included) coming in. So if Sir Keir can handle migrants or illegal immigration, he might retain these voters.

Farage wants to overturn the British electoral establishment and win as Trump has in the US. Whether he will achieve that will remain to be seen.