Coalition Government in 2029?

The next general election, scheduled for 2029, could see a coalition government. This, according to a YouGov poll commissioned and published by Sky News. The poll is good reading for Reform UK, but not for other parties.

This poll is not a prediction of the outcome of the next general election. This poll is just a poll to analyse who people would vote for if there were a general election tomorrow. This poll is known as a multilevel regression and post-stratification poll (MRP).

This poll suggests that, based on people's choice, Reform UK would be the largest party. Reform UK and Farage would be the largest party with 271 seats. Labour would get 178, the Greens, Lib Dems, and SNP doing well. Plaid Cymru would be increasing its number of seats at Westminster.

Whether we like it or not, it's not surprising that Reform would do well. However, Farage's aim is to be the next Prime Minister. And according to this poll, Farage would need to go into coalition with another party. It's unlikely, Farage would go into coalition with Sir Keir's Labour Party, although stranger things have happened. Politics today is an odd beast, and who can say what will happen? Like it or not, Reform UK and their leader have turned politics upside down. One would have thought Kemi Badenoch's Tories might seem the natural bedfellows for Reform UK. However, the poll is bad news for the Conservatives; they would drop even lower in the polls with 46 seats. So does this mean that the Tories, as Sir Keir and Nigel Farage have called them, are a dead party walking? Certainly, with Kemi Badenoch as leader, those on the right or those attracted to the right have not connected with Ms. Badenoch.

The Torie fortunes may change if Badenoch resigns with a new leader, but that is not guaranteed. Reform UK seem to be the natural successor to the Conservatives. They have eaten into and edged out Tory support. The saving grace for the Tories if their situation remains dire until 2029, might be that they go into coalition with Reform UK. However, as I have pointed out, that is not guaranteed, and that could be for a multitude of reasons.

The SNP will make a huge recovery both at Westminster and in Scotland if this poll is correct. Of course, as I have emphasised, this poll is not a prediction of what will happen in 2029. It is just a template of what might happen if there is a general election today. The other gainers are Ed Davey's Liberal Democrats. Would they be prepared to form another coalition with Labour, the Tories, or even, as unlikely as that sounds, go into coalition with Reform UK?

When the Conservatives became the largest party in 2010, they went into coalition with Nick Clegg's Lib Dems. It was the first time, as far as I know, that the Lib Dems had been in government since the First World War. Whoever the Lib Dems went into coalition with, it would be their third time in government.

This poll is still very good news for Farage and Reform UK. Those at the top of the party will be encouraged by this news. So while this poll might not give them the over control in government they want, it gives them the promise of going into coalition with another party. With Reform being the largest party, calling the shots on policy.

Finally, this poll is not a proper poll as to what will happen in 2029. It is a poll of what could happen if a general election were held now. And I know I have often repeated this in this article, but it is important to remember this poll is not a forecast of the future general election