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Changing the Rules Mid-Game: Why NYC’s New Housing Strategy Might Backfire

Why changing the rules mid-game turns today’s political wins into tomorrow’s housing crisis.

By Cher ChePublished 11 days ago 4 min read
Changing the Rules Mid-Game: Why NYC’s New Housing Strategy Might Backfire
Photo by Artem Zhukov on Unsplash

Imagine you are playing a long, intense board game with your friends — something like Monopoly or Settlers of Catan. Everyone has spent hours playing by the rules. You’ve invested your “money,” you’ve made trades, and you’ve built your “houses” based on the rulebook you all agreed on at the start.

Suddenly, halfway through the game, a new person walks into the room. They haven’t been playing, but they have the power to change the rules. They look at the board and say, “I don’t like how much property that person has. From now on, they can’t collect rent, and their houses belong to the players who are currently sitting in them.

In that moment, the players who were struggling feel amazing. They just got a “free” win. But what happens next?

The people who were investing and building suddenly stop. Why would they keep playing if the rules can change at any moment? More importantly, no one knows who will join the game. If word gets out that the rules are “flexible” and depend on who is watching, people will take their board games and go to another house.

This is exactly what happens when a city government intervenes in private bankruptcy cases to “target” specific groups.

The Bankruptcy “Filter”: Why Restarts Matter

By Jakub Żerdzicki on Unsplash

We don’t have to guess what happens when the government tries to “fix” the market by targeting landlords. We can look at Berlin in 2020.

The city government there implemented a “Mietendeckel” (a strict rent cap). It was celebrated as the ultimate pro-tenant move. But within just one year, the results were disastrous. Because landlords could no longer cover the costs of taxes and maintenance, and because the “rules of the game” had changed so suddenly, the supply of rental housing plummeted by over 50%.

The “Seen” people — those already in their apartments — were happy for a few months. But the “Unseen” — the thousands of students, young families, and workers trying to move into Berlin — found themselves in a nightmare. With no new housing being built and current apartments being taken off the market, finding a home became nearly impossible. The “protection” for current tenants became a “barricade” for the rest of the city.

The Minneapolis Miracle: The Power of More

By Andre on Unsplash

On the other hand, consider Minneapolis. Instead of intervening in court cases or “targeting” landlords, they did something much simpler: they made it easier for everyone to build. They relaxed the rules, ended restrictive zoning, and let the market respond to the need for more homes.

The result? Minneapolis became one of the only major U.S. cities where rent growth actually flattened and, in some cases, fell. When there is a surplus of housing, the power shifts from the landlord to the tenant. In Minneapolis, landlords have to compete for you. They have to offer lower rent and better service just to keep their buildings full.

In New York, by intervening and making the financial process more difficult, the city is doing the opposite. It is making housing scarcer, which ironically keeps the power in the hands of the very landlords the Mayor is trying to target.

The “Unpredictability Tax.”

By Eric Ward on Unsplash

Every time a Mayor makes a surprise move to intervene in a private contract, he adds what I call an “Unpredictability Tax” to the city.

Investors and builders are not “greedy” monsters; they are risk-calculators. If they see that the rules of the game in New York City can change based on the Mayor’s “Day One” mood, they will conclude that New York is a “high-risk” place to put their money.

They will take their cranes, their lumber, and their jobs to Jersey City, Philadelphia, or Austin.

When those builders leave, who suffers? Not the wealthy. The wealthy can always find a place to live. The victims are the middle-class and low-income families who will never see those “unbuilt” apartments. These are the “Unseen” victims of political intervention.

Why “Zero-Sum” Thinking Fails

By Claudio Schwarz on Unsplash

The biggest fallacy in housing policy is the idea that the landlord-tenant relationship is a “war” where one person must lose for the other to win.

In reality, a city is a massive, interconnected web.

  • The rent pays the Maintenance Staff who live in the outer boroughs.
  • The rent pays the Property Taxes that fund the schools and the subways.
  • The rent pays the Repair Crews who fix the boilers.

When the government intervenes to break the financial logic of a building, they aren’t just “hurting a landlord.” They are cutting the wires in that web. Eventually, the school loses funding, the maintenance guy loses his job, and the tenant ends up in a deteriorating building that no one can afford to fix.

The Path Forward: A Trowel, Not a Sword

By John Bogna on Unsplash

If the goal is truly to help tenants, the most effective tool is not the “sword” of intervention, but the “trowel” of construction. The most “pro-tenant” thing a Mayor can do is make it so easy and predictable to build in New York that landlords are terrified of losing their tenants to the new, better building next door. Competition is the only force that has ever successfully forced landlords to be “better.”

Intervening in bankruptcy cases may win the headlines on Monday, but it doesn’t lay a single brick on Tuesday. In fact, it often ensures that the next brick will be laid in another city entirely.

New York doesn’t need a Referee who changes the rules mid-game. It needs a city that is so easy to build in that the game becomes fair for everyone.

controversieshumanitylegislationpoliticianspoliticsopinion

About the Creator

Cher Che

New media writer with 10 years in advertising, exploring how we see and make sense of the world. What we look at matters, but how we look matters more.

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