Big Oil doesn’t share Trump’s dream of making Venezuelan oil great again

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has long championed the revival of Venezuela’s oil industry, framing it as a pathway to U.S. energy dominance and a blow to the socialist regime in Caracas. In speeches and interviews, Trump has promised to “make Venezuelan oil great again,” suggesting that unlocking the South American country’s vast reserves could solve global energy challenges while benefiting American interests. Yet, for all the rhetoric, the reality is far more complicated, and major oil corporations are not lining up to support the former president’s ambitious plan.
Venezuela’s Oil Industry: A Shadow of Its Former Self
Once the crown jewel of Latin American energy, Venezuela’s oil production has plummeted over the past decade. Mismanagement, corruption, and decades of political turmoil have left the state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), struggling to maintain output. Today, the country produces roughly a quarter of the oil it did at its peak in the mid-1990s. Infrastructure is crumbling, refineries operate at fraction of capacity, and international sanctions further limit access to capital and technology.
For Trump, the solution seems simple: relax sanctions, incentivize U.S. and international oil companies, and restore Venezuela as a global energy powerhouse. Yet, the idea underestimates the scale of the challenge. Rebuilding Venezuela’s oil sector is not a short-term fix—it would require billions of dollars in investment, cutting-edge technology, and political stability, none of which are guaranteed.
Big Oil’s Reluctance
Despite Trump’s enthusiasm, the world’s largest oil corporations remain hesitant to jump in. Companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and BP are wary of Venezuela’s complex political environment. While U.S. sanctions have been partially lifted in recent years, uncertainty persists over regulatory shifts, asset nationalizations, and potential backlash from investors. Multinational oil companies are acutely aware that a misstep could result in significant financial losses.
Chevron is one of the few U.S. companies maintaining a presence in Venezuela, but even it operates under tight constraints and careful risk management. For most major players, the geopolitical and financial risks outweigh potential rewards. Venezuela’s oil reserves, though vast, are heavy and extra-heavy crude, which is costly to extract and refine. In a world increasingly shifting toward renewable energy, long-term investments in high-cost crude are less attractive.
The Role of Sanctions and International Pressure
U.S. sanctions remain a major roadblock. While Trump signaled willingness to lift restrictions, any policy shift would depend on Congress, the executive branch, and international actors. European and Asian partners are also cautious, given their own economic and political stakes. Any aggressive push to boost Venezuelan oil production could trigger diplomatic friction, potentially undermining the very energy and geopolitical goals Trump aims to achieve.
Market Realities and Energy Transition
Beyond political risk, the economics of oil are changing. Global energy markets are in transition, with increasing investment in renewables, electric vehicles, and cleaner alternatives. Companies are now more cautious about long-term bets on politically unstable, high-cost oil fields. Venezuela’s heavy crude, which requires specialized infrastructure and processing, may no longer be a golden ticket in an era moving toward sustainability.
Moreover, the volatility of oil prices adds another layer of uncertainty. Even if production ramps up, market fluctuations could easily erode profit margins, further discouraging investment. In short, the dream of “Venezuelan oil greatness” faces structural hurdles that money and executive orders alone cannot overcome.
Trump’s Rhetoric vs. Reality
Trump’s vision for Venezuelan oil is rooted in nostalgia for a time when the U.S. had a dominant position in global energy markets. His calls to “make it great again” resonate with voters who see energy independence as both patriotic and strategic. However, for the private sector, the reality is more pragmatic: political instability, crumbling infrastructure, and market uncertainty make Venezuela a risky and expensive venture.
Conclusion
The gap between Trump’s ambitious vision and the cautious stance of Big Oil underscores the complexity of global energy politics. Reviving Venezuela’s oil industry is not merely about lifting sanctions or signing deals—it requires navigating a tangle of political, economic, and technological challenges. While Trump may continue to champion the cause in speeches and tweets, the corporate world is moving with caution, prioritizing stability, predictability, and long-term profitability.
In the end, the dream of turning Venezuela into an energy superpower may remain just that: a dream. As oil companies weigh the risks, and as global energy markets continue their transition, the question remains whether political ambition alone can overcome the practical realities of one of the world’s most challenging oil frontiers.