A New Red Sea Axis: Israel, India, UAE, Ethiopia Converge in Somaliland

A quiet but potentially transformative geopolitical alignment is taking shape along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as Israel, India, the United Arab Emirates, and Ethiopia find converging interests in Somaliland, the self-declared but unrecognized state in the Horn of Africa. While each country brings its own motivations, their growing engagement in and around Somaliland points to the emergence of a new Red Sea axis—one that could reshape regional trade, security dynamics, and great-power competition.

Situated at the entrance to the Red Sea, Somaliland occupies a strategic position overlooking shipping lanes that carry a significant share of global trade, including energy supplies bound for Europe and Asia. As instability, piracy risks, and geopolitical rivalries intensify across the region, this overlooked territory is increasingly becoming a focal point for external powers seeking reliable partners and strategic footholds.

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Why Somaliland Matters

Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 and has since maintained relative stability compared to the rest of the country. Despite lacking international recognition, it has functioning institutions, regular elections, and a comparatively secure environment. For foreign powers wary of instability in the Horn of Africa, Somaliland offers something rare: predictability.

Its Berbera port, located along the Gulf of Aden, is particularly significant. The port sits near one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints, where disruptions can ripple across global supply chains. As attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and regional conflicts raise alarms, control and access to secure ports have become a strategic priority.

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The UAE: Economic and Strategic Anchor

The United Arab Emirates has been the most visibly active external player in Somaliland. Through DP World, Dubai’s global port operator, the UAE has invested heavily in expanding and modernizing the Berbera port and developing a trade corridor linking it to Ethiopia.

For Abu Dhabi, Somaliland fits neatly into its broader strategy of securing maritime trade routes and building influence across key ports from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. The UAE also sees Somaliland as a reliable partner in a volatile region, aligning economic interests with security considerations.

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Ethiopia’s Search for Sea Access

For Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country, Somaliland represents a strategic lifeline. Landlocked since Eritrea’s independence, Ethiopia depends heavily on Djibouti for access to the sea. This reliance has long been viewed as a vulnerability.

By deepening ties with Somaliland and investing in infrastructure linked to Berbera, Ethiopia is seeking diversified access to maritime trade routes. Such a move would reduce dependency on a single corridor and strengthen Addis Ababa’s regional leverage. Ethiopia’s interest is pragmatic, driven by economic necessity rather than ideology.

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Israel’s Expanding Red Sea Footprint

Israel’s interest in the Red Sea is not new, but recent regional turbulence has sharpened its focus. With shipping routes facing threats and Iran-linked actors expanding influence in nearby waters, Israel is increasingly attentive to security dynamics around the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Somaliland’s stability and location make it a potentially valuable partner for intelligence sharing, maritime security coordination, and logistical access. While Israel’s engagement remains discreet, analysts see it as part of a broader effort to counter hostile influence and protect trade routes vital to its economy.

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India’s Indo-Pacific Calculations

India’s involvement adds another layer to this emerging axis. As a major trading nation and a proponent of secure sea lanes, New Delhi has grown more active in the western Indian Ocean and Red Sea region. Concerns about piracy, regional instability, and China’s expanding footprint have pushed India to seek new partnerships.

Somaliland, via Berbera, offers India a potential node in its maritime strategy—one that complements its ties with the UAE and growing security cooperation with Israel. India’s approach remains cautious, balancing engagement without formally endorsing Somaliland’s independence.

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Shared Interests, Different Motivations

What unites Israel, India, the UAE, and Ethiopia is not a formal alliance, but overlapping strategic interests:

Securing critical maritime trade routes

Countering regional instability and non-state threats

Reducing dependence on single chokepoints or partners

Expanding economic and logistical influence

Each country approaches Somaliland from a different angle—economic, security, or strategic—but the convergence is unmistakable.

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Regional and Global Implications

The emergence of this Red Sea axis carries significant implications. For Somalia, it raises concerns about sovereignty and the risk of further fragmentation. For Djibouti, it introduces competition to its long-held status as the Horn of Africa’s primary maritime gateway.

Globally, the alignment underscores how middle powers are increasingly shaping regional orders, sometimes independently of traditional Western leadership. It also highlights Somaliland’s growing relevance despite its lack of recognition, challenging assumptions about legitimacy and influence in international politics.

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A Delicate Balancing Act

Despite growing engagement, all parties are proceeding carefully. Formal recognition of Somaliland remains a red line for many, given concerns about setting precedents elsewhere. Cooperation is therefore unfolding through investments, security coordination, and quiet diplomacy rather than overt political endorsements.

Whether this emerging axis solidifies into a lasting framework will depend on regional stability, international reactions, and Somaliland’s ability to maintain its internal cohesion.

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Conclusion

The convergence of Israel, India, the UAE, and Ethiopia in Somaliland signals a subtle but important shift in Red Sea geopolitics. As global trade routes face rising risks and traditional power structures evolve, new partnerships are forming in unexpected places.

Somaliland, long on the margins of international politics, now finds itself at the center of a strategic recalculation—one that could reshape the balance of power along one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors.