Unraveling Putin's Power: Russia's Staggering Challenges and Shifting Dynamics

No doubt about it: Vladimir Putin and Russia are practically synonymous. He's got a tight hold on his country and its people that rivals any dictator out there. But things are shifting in their dynamic after many years, and both Putin and Russia are staring down some massive challenges that must be keeping them up at night.

Remember, it's been 400 years since Shakespeare penned, "Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown." In all that time, probably no leader has had a more restless head than Putin. He's known for being an autocrat, an assassin, even a kleptomaniac, and now he's dangerously close to dealing with an uprising in his own backyard. He's tried everything to muzzle dissent within his borders, from shutting down rival news outlets and locking up opposition figures, to even killing critical journalists and going after expats overseas. His controlled Duma has passed laws to clamp down on free speech, and he's even jailed those who dare call his Ukraine invasion a "war."

However, his military missteps have now put him in a precarious spot during his 24-year rule. Thanks to his misjudgment about the speed of his invasion's success, he's in a pretty tight spot. Tensions are rising at home, skilled young people are leaving in droves—over a million have already split for other countries—and his military seems more interested in targeting civilians than effectively attacking or defending.

On top of that, the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive is threatening to take back the little bit of Ukraine that Putin's army still occupies. Three main attack routes are shaping up: one in the western Zaporizhia Oblast, another in the western Donetsk Oblast, and yet another from around the wrecked city of Bakhmut. There are also ongoing incursions into Russian territory near Belgorod, where Russian military bloggers claim entire regiments have been wiped out.

Russia and Putin have countless hurdles ahead and their futures are far from secure. And since Putin has often been compared to a Shakespearean villain, let's keep riding that comparison. "Truth is Truth, To the End of Reckoning" (William Shakespeare, "Measure for Measure") Putin has really gone all out—well, more like all bad—to suppress criticism and keep the real story hidden from his people. But even he had to recently admit that his war plan, cooked up mostly with the help of a few handpicked yes-men, isn't going so hot.

With Ukraine's robust counter-offensive in play, supported by modern tanks and artillery, Putin's military is stumbling under the multi-pronged attacks. Even Putin himself had to fess up on June 9th, 2023, saying, "We've seen some serious losses in Ukraine lately." That's just scratching the surface of Russia's military woes, but it's a rare admission from a guy who rarely owns up to mistakes.

Despite taking heavy hits in their initial pushes, Ukraine keeps gaining ground, cracking open Russia's fortified defenses in the southeast. They've made notable progress south of the Dnipro River, putting key hubs like Melitopol, and important ports like Berdyansk and Mariupol, at risk. If these cities fall, Ukraine can cut off support from Russia to over a third of their troops sitting in southeastern Ukraine and Crimea.

Word's out that train lines between Crimea and Melitopol have been sabotaged, messing with Russia's ability to move supplies and backup between these areas. These attacks are just a slice of the growing sabotage wave across Russia and its held territories. In the first five months of 2023, there've been twice as many attacks compared to all of last year.

If Ukraine manages to snatch those three crucial cities—Melitopol, Bryansk, and Mariupol—Russia's remaining troops will be left relying on the already damaged Kerch Bridge connecting Russia and Crimea. The previous bridge attack, whose source is still a mystery, proved the bridge is vulnerable. It's a bit unsettling for Putin that there's strong evidence the explosion was caused by a truck bomb from within Russia's borders.

If another attack wipes out the Kerch Bridge, there's no escape for tens of thousands of Russian troops, and equally important, all their heavy-duty gear, including tons of tanks, supply vehicles, and artillery. Aside from the headway south of the Dnipro, Russian forces have also had to retreat from the north and south flanks around the battered city of Bakhmut. Once the private military Wagner group claimed they'd secured the city, they said they were stepping away from the frontline, probably due to the heavy losses they suffered during the ten-month siege.

Wagner's boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who's quite outspoken, even took potshots at the old-timers leading Russia's military. He's posted up with his troops on the Bakhmut frontlines and hasn't held back on berating what he calls the "bunker grandpas' ' in Moscow. He's particularly ticked at the folks he thinks are slacking in authority, like Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Prigozhin's June 7th, 2023 video was quite the bombshell. He predicted more losses to Ukraine and suggested two outcomes: either Russia's poorly performing generals get the boot or there's a full-on revolt, like a civil war or a coup.

Prigozhin's words hit hard because of his Wagner group's accomplishments in Ukraine. But now that Wagner's out and Prigozhin in exile, Putin's in a tough spot. Some say Putin let Prigozhin vent his frustrations because it looked like they were coming from a frontline commander and former war hero. This also shifted some blame away from Putin for the invasion's failures, allowing him to point fingers at others, like Shoigu and Gerasimov. Always wary of challengers, Putin might've seen these criticisms as a way to reduce the popularity of potential rivals and cut down on those who might try to take his spot.

However, Putin is facing a lot more challenges to his power and even his freedom. There are many claims of children being taken from parts of Ukraine that Russia has occupied. These claims started even before the recent invasion in February 2023. Because of these accusations, the International Criminal Court in the Hague, Netherlands, has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. This means he could be arrested in any country that follows the court's decision. This situation even puts his trips to other countries at risk, due to the arrest warrant. For example, South Africa was supposed to host a meeting for the BRICS group in August 2023, but there were concerns about Putin's potential arrest if he attended.

Although summit leaders deny this, there's been talk of a possible Putin arrest. These accusations of war crimes are just a small part of the problems facing Putin. His military, led by Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov, has been accused of numerous instances of torture and murder during the occupation of Ukraine. In the town of Bucha near Kiev, for instance, around 300 civilians were executed. Whenever Ukraine has regained control of previously occupied areas, they've discovered torture facilities and mass graves. The US is assisting Ukrainian prosecutors to investigate and punish these crimes. These war crimes are connected to Putin, as he even awarded medals to the unit responsible for the Bucha murders.

This adds to his negative legacy, along with the environmental disaster.