Russia's War in Ukraine

The geopolitical struggles of the XXI st century demand new dimensions beyond traditional military conflicts. The current Russia–Ukraine war cannot be limited merely to territorial or ideological views. According to my analysis, the central goal of this war is to consolidate strategic control over the Black Sea and Azov Sea, and subsequently systematically manage the Euro-Asian transport and energy corridors via the Caspian Sea. This path gives Russia the ability to create a new, practically influential border for NATO and the EU.

Importance of the Black Sea and Azov Sea

For Russia, the Black Sea is not only a military field but a "geopolitical gateway." Securing Odessa primarily means controlling a crucial economic crossroads in Ukraine and secondly gaining influence over the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits via Turkey. The Azov Sea holds strategic significance for isolating southern Ukrainian coasts and cutting off Donbass from the sea. Through systematic control of the Black and Azov Seas, Russia restricts NATO naval operations, creates additional logistic obstacles for European countries, and establishes military-economic pressure.

Seas as Military and Economic Borders

These seas serve dual purposes for Russia: they function both as military and economic borders. Dominance in the Black Sea provides Russia with a strategic control element over Western armies and oil-gas routes. Thus, the Black Sea becomes not just a frontline but a "gateway" for trade and energy relations with Europe. Control over the sea is a long-term, effective governance method rather than direct military occupation.

The Caspian Sea — Energy and Transit Hub

The Caspian Sea issue represents the second phase of Russia's strategy. The oil and gas fields and transit routes there play a central role in directing Central Asian resources to European and Chinese markets. Controlling the Caspian gives Russia authority not only over energy sources but also over transit sovereignty along the Central Asia–Europe and Central Asia–China corridors. This route also opens the opportunity for Russia to influence the regional trade interests of Pakistan, India, and China.

Strategic Integration: From the Black Sea to the Caspian

According to the theory I propose, the Black Sea → Azov Sea → Caspian Sea corridor is not a single, but an interconnected geopolitical project that allows Russia simultaneously to influence a number of countries: Europe (energy and trade), Turkey (Bosporus politics and regional balance), Turkic states and Central Asia (logistics and geopolitical integration), as well as the Middle East and Arab states via Iran. At this point, another important scenario exists: if Russia desires, it could establish short waterways and transport routes linking the Black Sea and Caspian Sea. Such a route would not only provide direct water transport from the Black Sea to Central Asia but drastically shorten the logistics chain between Europe and Asia. As a result, Russia would gain the ability to fully control regional trade through water and combined transport routes.

Power Not by Force, But by Control

In modern strategy, control over seas is more effective than direct military dominance by force. Control enables:

- Restricting military operations,

- Negotiating economic sanctions and gaining political leverage to abandon them,

- Managing regional and global trade routes on its own terms.

At the same time, this strategy establishes the concept of a "symbolic border": seas are not only regional territories but a strategic frontier and demonstration of power for Russia.

Opportunities and Risks

If Russia succeeds on this path, it can create a new kind of border — a maritime border — against NATO and the EU. This represents a new military and economic threat to Europe.

However, this approach also carries serious risks: efforts to control transit routes may cause global economic instability and political isolation, and escalate clashes with other regional powers (Turkey, China, Iran, and the USA or NATO).

Conclusion:

Russia’s war with Ukraine is a comprehensive military-economic and geopolitical plan centered on controlling the corridor from the Black Sea and Azov Sea to the Caspian. This path grants Russia not only regional dominance but the ability to reshape global logistics and energy systems. In the ХХI st century, power is defined not by weapons, but by control over routes, ports, and transit. If this strategy succeeds, a new balance will emerge in political and economic development worldwide — signifying a fundamental shift in the entire global order.

This will become Russia’s golden key to world domination.

Researcher: Bahromjon Suvanov

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