Russia's Challenges in the Conflict with Ukraine

The news emerging from Ukraine presents unfavorable developments for Russia, with 10,741 visually confirmed instances of heavy equipment losses, including 2,054 tanks either destroyed, abandoned, or captured. Estimates lacking visual confirmation suggest a figure around 3,000. More than half of its Ka-52 attack helicopter fleet has been destroyed, and during the June Ukrainian counteroffensive alone, five were lost.

Disclosed documents from the notorious Discord leak reveal the Department of Defense's estimations, indicating Russia's casualty count at 189,500 to 223,000, with 35,500 to 43,000 recorded as killed in action (KIA). This data predates the Ukrainian counteroffensive, marked by fierce confrontations across the northern front. Notably devastating were the alleged HIMARS strikes, including a mid-June incident reportedly claiming the lives of numerous Russian soldiers awaiting their commander's address – though this information remains unverified.

As Ukraine initiated its offensive, a media blackout was enforced along its frontlines, ceding the propaganda contest to Russia for several weeks. When the information embargo lifted, the world observed Russian prisoners of war being led away from the front. While Russia's defense lines are not crumbling, they are showing signs of breaking, as Ukraine prepares to deploy its well-trained reserves and advanced firepower.

The query arises: Why is Russia incapable of fielding superior troops and equipment? The term "better" when referring to Russia is relative, especially in the context of its troops. Throughout history, Russian soldiers have consistently underperformed within international grading systems. While exercises like the ZAPAD combined arms exercise depicted Russia as a professional western military, real-world tests exposed the inadequacies of its soldiers.

The first Chechen war illustrated Russia's defeat at the hands of Chechen rebels. A force of 23,800 Russians faced off against an estimated 1,000 rebel fighters, escalating to 6,000 after a year of combat. Despite these odds, Russia suffered staggering losses of 14,000 killed or missing and 52,000 wounded. In contrast, estimated military losses on the Chechen side were approximately 3,000. Even Russia's esteemed paratroopers faced setbacks, exemplified by an incident where a 50-strong assault unit landed behind enemy lines and was promptly captured, prompting the Russian military to threaten nearby villages with aerial bombardment for their release.

The second Chechen war fared no better, with Russia eventually subduing the region by supporting pro-Russian Chechen warlords. Nevertheless, Russian military shortcomings persisted, leading to an overreliance on sheer force to maintain control. The infamous bombings of Grozny and other Chechen cities showcased Russia's reliance on superior firepower. An extensive campaign of bombings and artillery strikes reduced Chechnya to rubble, with civilian casualties potentially reaching 100,000.

The absence of well-trained soldiers poses a significant challenge to Russia. Corruption has plagued Russia since the Soviet Union's collapse, hindering its ability to establish a Western-style professional military. The reliance on conscription has been a prevailing trend, although progress was made before the Ukrainian conflict, with approximately three-quarters of armed forces composed of professional volunteer soldiers. Conscripts' service length was reduced from 24 to 12 months, effectively providing Russia only about 5 months of utility from each batch of conscripts. Notably, conscripts still made up a substantial portion of Russia's combat forces, including elite Spetsnaz units – a situation unimaginable in the US military.

The disparity between conscripts and volunteers is evident, as volunteer soldiers display higher morale and proficiency. Volunteers willingly choose to serve, fostering greater motivation compared to conscripts compelled to serve. While volunteers serve longer terms, allowing for more combat-ready training, conscripts often depart upon completing their service, taking their training, costs, and expertise with them. Volunteers also form the backbone of the military, ascending the ranks and accumulating expertise, resulting in greater efficiency.

Russia's dearth of a Non-commissioned Officer (NCO) corps undermines its military structure. NCOs are crucial for overseeing day-to-day military operations, ensuring training standards are upheld, and providing battlefield leadership. However, Russia assigns these responsibilities to junior and warrant officers, hindering their effectiveness. This strategy strains officers and fosters deferment of authority and leadership to senior conscripts or low-ranking recruits. This issue isn't recent; during the Cold War, Soviet units were often led by second-year conscripts, with even the limited NCOs frequently deferring to them.

Lack of NCOs isn't the sole concern; hazing presents a significant challenge. Russian military hazing, known as the "rule of the grandfathers," perpetuates a cycle of abuse. Hazing flows downhill, from older conscripts brutalizing younger ones to NCOs mistreating senior conscripts and officers mistreating NCOs. Beatings, humiliations, torture, and forced labor are rampant, contributing to a toxic environment. Russian leaders have even rented their troops to local villages for manual labor. The absence of NCOs exacerbates this issue and deters talented recruits, as volunteer soldiers fare better in terms of morale and proficiency.

Russia's military spirals into a crisis due to its inability to replace skilled personnel and modern equipment. Ukraine's access to advanced western armored vehicles and technology contrasts starkly with Russia's antiquated equipment, including the deployment of ancient T-54 and T-55 tanks. Sanctions have crippled Russia's defense industry, limiting its access to critical components and technology. The loss of 425 aircraft and significant depletion of its Ka-52 attack helicopter fleet reflect Russia's struggles. A shortage of ammunition and deteriorating resupply capabilities further erode Russia's military advantage.

Russia's training methods are inadequate, relying on superficial "picture reports" instead of comprehensive assessments and training. Corruption compounds the problem, with commanders skimming pay and inflating unit numbers. Russia's inability to retain proficient soldiers due to hazing, coupled with a lack of a modern reserve system, adds to its challenges. China's potential military aid remains uncertain, but Russia's desperation may force China's involvement. Ultimately, Russia's military predicament stems from systemic corruption, training deficiencies, and technological constraints, leaving it vulnerable in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.