India and Pakistan situation

Islamabad/New Delhi — May 10, 2025

The already fragile relationship between South Asia’s two nuclear-armed neighbors has taken a dangerous turn as Pakistan launched fresh military operations on Friday in response to what it described as an “unprovoked and deliberate” strike by Indian forces on its military bases in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

According to Pakistan’s military spokesperson, Major General Ahmed Sharif, several Pakistani forward-operating positions were hit early Friday morning in what he alleged were coordinated Indian missile strikes. The strikes, he said, resulted in "significant damage" to infrastructure and "a number of casualties among security personnel," although he refrained from disclosing precise figures, citing operational secrecy.

“This aggression is not only a blatant violation of Pakistan’s territorial integrity but a grave provocation that risks regional peace,” Sharif told journalists in Rawalpindi. “Pakistan reserves the right to respond at a time and place of its choosing, and that response has now begun.”

Following the alleged Indian attack, Pakistan’s military launched what it called "Operation Zarb-e-Ahan" (Strike of Iron)—a multi-front counteroffensive involving air, artillery, and special forces operations. Pakistani fighter jets reportedly carried out low-altitude sorties across the Line of Control (LoC), targeting Indian military installations, logistics depots, and radar systems. Local sources in border towns like Muzaffarabad and Kotli reported hearing “intense shelling and aircraft movement” throughout the day.

India Denies Allegations, Warns Against "Misadventure"

India, meanwhile, has strongly denied carrying out any offensive action. A statement from the Indian Ministry of Defence called Pakistan’s claims "false, fabricated, and inflammatory," accusing Islamabad of attempting to "shift focus from its internal instability and mounting pressure from extremist elements."

“We categorically deny any offensive strikes on Pakistani military positions,” said Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh. “However, let it be absolutely clear—if any harm comes to our forces or our territory, we will not hesitate to respond with overwhelming force.”

Indian military officials also noted that Pakistan's recent moves may be aimed at escalating tensions to internationalize the Kashmir issue once again, especially as domestic pressure mounts on Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership amid growing economic challenges and insurgency-related violence in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Military Movements and Escalation Risks

Escalation Threats and Military Movements Reports from both sides of the LoC indicate heavy troop movements. India has reportedly mobilized elite mountain divisions and advanced artillery systems along key strategic sectors in Ladakh and Poonch. Pakistan, for its part, has moved additional armored units and deployed long-range air defense systems closer to the contested border.

Independent defense analysts looked at satellite images and found that there was more activity around important airbases in both countries, like Pathankot, Ambala, Skardu, and Chaklala. Given the history of mistrust between the two nations and their nuclear arsenals, analysts warn that any further military conflict could spiral out of control. “The situation is extremely volatile,” said Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa, a defense analyst based in Islamabad. “One miscalculation or miscommunication could lead to a full-scale military conflict. The risk of escalation is very real.”

Civilians Caught in the Crossfire

As military tensions rise, the biggest sufferers appear to be civilians living along the LoC. Dozens of families have reportedly evacuated border villages in fear of renewed shelling. Emergency shelters have been opened in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and in India's Jammu region, schools near the border have been closed indefinitely. Both sides' local hospitals have been placed on high alert. Human rights organizations have urged both countries to ensure the protection of civilians and medical personnel.

“This isn’t just about military posturing,” said Meenakshi Ganguly, South Asia Director at Human Rights Watch. “Every artillery round or airstrike puts innocent lives at risk. The human cost of war is too high for either side to ignore.”

International Reactions and Calls for Restraint

The international community has responded with alarm. The United Nations, United States, China, and the European Union have all issued urgent calls for de-escalation.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a statement urging both nations to “exercise maximum restraint” and “immediately cease all military activities in disputed regions.” He also offered to mediate talks if both parties were willing.

The White House said President Biden had been briefed on the situation and urged both sides to avoid further violence. “We are deeply concerned by reports of escalating hostilities along the India-Pakistan border,” a U.S. State Department spokesperson said. “We call on both nations to prioritize diplomacy over confrontation.”

China, a key ally of Pakistan but also a significant trading partner of India, also urged dialogue. Beijing stated that it was "closely monitoring the situation" and emphasized the significance of "regional peace and stability" in a carefully worded statement.

A History of Conflict

India and Pakistan have fought three major wars since gaining independence in 1947, two of which were over Kashmir. The region remains a flashpoint, with frequent ceasefire violations and occasional cross-border attacks. In 2019, both nations came dangerously close to all-out war after India carried out airstrikes in Balakot in response to a terror attack in Pulwama.

Today’s developments mark the most serious military flare-up since then. Analysts fear that the breakdown of backchannel diplomacy and the rise of hardline rhetoric on both sides have reduced options for peaceful resolution.

What Happens Next?

Both countries have signaled that they do not seek war, but both have also vowed to defend their national interests fiercely. Diplomats around the world are now working overtime to defuse the situation and reestablish lines of communication between New Delhi and Islamabad.

The people of South Asia—and the world as a whole—watch with concern as the situation develops, hoping that sanity will prevail before it is too late