Fighting the drug cartels.

Mexico's brutal drug war claims thousands of lives every year, as powerful trafficking groups battle it out for territory and influence.

These cartels control vast areas of the country and are also responsible for political corruption, assassinations and kidnappings.

But which groups are the most powerful?

The Sinaloa Cartel

Territory: Much of the north-west.

The US government has described the Sinaloa Cartel as one of the largest drug-trafficking organisations in the world.

Founded in the late 1980s, it was for many years headed by the notorious drug lord Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán. "El Chapo" - or "Shorty" - was once ranked as one of the world's richest men. His life and vast drug-trafficking empire have been the subject of numerous books and TV series.

Under his leadership, the cartel garnered a fierce reputation for violence and outfought several rival groups. Mexican cartels often clash with one another, but it's also worth noting that they can form strategic alliances as well.

The Sinaloa became the biggest supplier of illegal drugs to the US during Guzmán's long reign as leader, officials say

The cartel kidnapped, tortured and slaughtered members of rival criminal gangs. It also had access to a huge arsenal of weapons, including a rocket-propelled grenade launcher and Guzmán's own gold plated AK-47.

But in July 2019, the drug lord was sentenced to life in prison following one of the most high-profile trials in recent US history.

Prosecutors said Guzmán had trafficked cocaine, heroin and marijuana, and kept a network of dealers, kidnappers and assassins on his payroll.

His jailing led to an increase of violence in the region as other groups sought to take advantage. Despite this, the Sinaloa Cartel remains hugely powerful. It still dominates north-west Mexico and is reported to have a presence in cities ranging from Buenos Aires to New York.

It also continues to make billions of dollars from trafficking illicit narcotics to the US, Europe and Asia, experts say. With its long-time leader now behind bars, the cartel is said to be partially controlled by Mr Guzmán's son, Ovidio Guzmán Lopez.

When the younger Guzmán was arrested by the security forces in October 2019, Sinaloa Cartel gunmen were quick to demonstrate the group's serious military might.

They fought street battles with the army in broad daylight, set fire to vehicles, and even staged a prison break before their leader was eventually freed. It was a sign the group remains an immensely powerful force.

The Jalisco New Generation (CJNG)

Territory: The west, mainly the Tierra Caliente region.

Formed in about 2010, the Jalisco cartel is the strongest and most aggressive competitor to the Sinaloa.

The group has expanded rapidly across Mexico and is now one of the country's most dominant organised crime groups. Its assets are thought to be worth more than $20bn (£15.5bn).

The cartel is led by Ruben Oseguera, known as "El Mencho", a former police officer who is Mexico's most wanted man. The bounty for his capture? A cool $10m.

The US government is offering a $10m reward for the capture of the Jalisco cartel's leader

The Jalisco cartel is one of the main distributors of synthetic drugs on the continent, according to the US government. It is a key player in the illegal amphetamine market in the US and Europe and is also thought to have links to the drug market in Asia.

It has grown much more powerful in recent years and its rise has been fuelled by its use of extreme violence.

"It remains the most aggressive cartel in Mexico," according to the US-based geopolitical analysis firm Stratfor. "Its efforts to expand its area of control are largely responsible for the persistent wave of violence racking Tijuana, Juarez, Guanajuato and Mexico City."

Indeed, the cartel has gained notoriety for a series of attacks on security forces and public officials.

It has downed an army helicopter with a rocket-propelled grenade, killed dozens of state officials, and has even been known to hang the bodies of its victims from bridges to intimidate its rivals.

And, according to experts in the region, it is set to expand further.

The Gulf Cartel

Territory: The north-east, centred around the border state of Tamaulipas.

This is one of Mexico's oldest criminal groups and its roots can be traced back to the 1980s.

It became known around this time for trafficking cocaine and marijuana into the US. It is also thought to have smuggled heroin and amphetamines, and it worked closely with cartels in Colombia.

By the 1990s, the Gulf Cartel's drug trafficking operation was reportedly bringing in billions of dollars every year. It maintained this network by engaging in political corruption and bribery as a means to keep officials on side.

The cartel was initially led by Juan García Abrego, the first Mexican drug lord to be included in the FBI's 10 most wanted list. He was captured in 1996 and jailed for life in the US.

His heir, Osiel Cardenas Guillen, built up the cartel's military wing. He recruited a number of corrupt special forces soldiers and pushed an even more violent approach. Those soldiers would eventually go rogue and form a rival cartel of their own

Cardenas was arrested in 2003 and is currently serving 25 years in jail in the US. His brother and top leader of the cartel, Ezequiel Cardenas Guillen, was killed in a shootout with Mexican troops in 2010.

The cartel then split into multiple factions with different leaders. It has been weakened as a result, and is engaged in a vicious turf war with the...

... Los Zetas Cartel

Territory: Also the north-east.

This group was founded by corrupt members of an elite unit of Mexico's special forces.

More than 30 ex-soldiers were hired by the leader of the Gulf Cartel in the 1990s but, as mentioned above, they broke away and formed their own operation in 2010.

The two cartels then clashed violently, particularly in Mexico's north-east. The Zetas became particularly well-known for their brutality, often torturing and decapitating their victims.

By 2012, the Zetas had reached the peak of their powers. The were named as the country's biggest drug gang, overtaking their bitter rivals the Sinaloa, and were thought to operate in more than half of the Mexican states.

They moved beyond drugs and turned their hand to any crime that brought them money, from cigarette smuggling to human trafficking.

But, later in 2012, one of their leaders was killed in a shootout with the Mexican Navy. His replacement, Miguel Ángel Treviño Morales, was captured. His younger brother, Omar Treviño Morales, took over but was also caught in 2015.

This marked the beginning of the cartel's decline. A lack of leadership caused the Zetas to splinter and allowed rival groups to assert dominance, according to analysis from Insight Crime, which monitors organised crime in the Americas.

The Zetas lost ground as others, notably the Jalisco cartel, expanded to take their east coast territory. Internal divisions have also served to weaken the group, but it remains a dangerous force.

The United States remains committed to protecting our nation, the American people, and our hemisphere by stopping the campaigns of violence and terror committed by international cartels and transnational organizations.

Today, the Department of State announces the designation of Tren de Aragua (TdA), Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), Cártel de Sinaloa, Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), Cártel del Noreste (CDN), La Nueva Familia Michoacana (LNFM), Cártel de Golfo (CDG), and Cárteles Unidos (CU) as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) and Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs).

TdA is a transnational organization that originated in Venezuela with cells in Colombia, Peru, and Chile, with further reports of sporadic presence in Ecuador, Bolivia, and Brazil. This brutal criminal group has conducted kidnappings, extorted businesses, bribed public officials, authorized its members to attack and kill U.S. law enforcement, and assassinated a Venezuelan opposition figure.

MS-13 is a transnational organization that originated in Los Angeles but shifted to Central America as individuals were deported there from the United States. MS-13 actively recruits, organizes, and spreads violence in several countries, primarily in Central America and North America, including El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico, and the United States. MS-13 has conducted numerous violent attacks, including assassination and the use of IEDs and drones, against El Salvador government officials and facilities. Additionally, MS-13 uses public displays of violence to intimidate civilian populations to obtain and control territory and manipulate the electoral process in El Salvador.

Cártel de Sinaloa is a transnational organization based in Sinaloa, Mexico. It is one of the world’s most powerful drug cartels and is one of the largest producers and traffickers of fentanyl and other illicit drugs to the United States. Cártel de Sinaloa has used violence to murder, kidnap, and intimidate civilians, government officials, and journalists.

CJNG is a transnational organization with a presence in nearly every part of Mexico. In addition to trafficking fentanyl, the group engages in extortion, migrant smuggling, oil and mineral theft, as well as weapons trade. The group has contacts across the Americas, as well as in Australia, China, and Southeast Asia. CJNG has conducted intimidating acts of violence, including attacks on Mexican military and police with military grade weaponry, the use of drones to drop explosives on Mexican law enforcement, and assassinations or attempted assassinations of Mexican officials.

CDN, formerly known as Los Zetas, is a transnational organization based in northeastern Mexico involved in drug trafficking, kidnapping, extortion, human smuggling, and other illicit activities. CDN uses violence to exert its criminal control, including attacks against government officials in Mexico.

LNFM is the successor of the La Familia Michoacana, a violent transnational organization based in the Pacific coast state of Michoacan with operations in the Mexican states Guerrero, Morelos, and Mexico. In addition to drug trafficking, kidnapping, and extortion, LNFM attacks government officials and uses violence, including drone attacks and explosives, to exert its criminal control and terrorize communities.

CDG is a violent transnational organization based in northeast Mexico involved in drug trafficking, kidnapping, extortion, human smuggling, and other illicit activities. CDG employs violence, including assassinations of civilians and government officials to intimidate the public and control territory.

CU is a violent transnational organization that formed from an alliance of multiple cartels and other groups in Michoacán, Mexico. Since its formation, CU has engaged in violent activities which have resulted in numerous civilian, military, and law enforcement casualties.

Terrorist designations expose and isolate entities and individuals, denying them access to the U.S. financial system and the resources they need to carry out attacks. As a result of actions taken today, all property and interests in property of those designated today that are in the United States or that are in possession or control of a U.S. person are blocked, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from engaging in transactions with them. Moreover, designations can assist law enforcement actions of other U.S. agencies and governments.

Today’s actions are taken pursuant to section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act, as amended, and Executive Order 13224, as amended. FTO designations go into effect upon publication in the Federal Register.

Taking the fight to the cartels. - a 4 step process.

How US military action against drug cartels in Mexico could unfold

During his address to Congress on March 4, US President Donald Trump did not mince words about the threat drug cartels pose: “The cartels are waging war on America, and it’s time for America to wage war on the cartels.” His statement marks the clearest indication so far that the new administration is serious about confronting the cartels and follows a series of escalating actions.

Two weeks earlier, on February 20, the Trump administration officially designated eight Latin American cartels, including six from Mexico, as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) for their major roles in drug smuggling and human trafficking into the United States. The move marks a major escalation in the administration’s efforts to cripple the cartels, as an FTO designation grants the administration access to enhanced counterterrorism authorities, such as the ability to launch covert operations authorized by the president. The FTO designation came only days after the Mexican Senate approved the presence of the US Army’s 7th Special Forces Group to conduct joint training with Mexico’s elite Naval Marine Corps.

The Trump administration’s FTO designation and US Special Forces presence in Mexico comes as the administration is taking other notable steps. On orders from the president, US Northern Command launched new deployments at the US southern border. And Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) surveillance drone flights, approved by Mexico, have reportedly gathered intelligence on cartel operations within the country. The rapid speed and scale of these apparent foreign counteroffensive preparations, arguably not seen since the early stages of the War on Terror, may indicate that the United States is on the verge of direct military action, either unilaterally or with the Mexican military, against cartels on Mexican soil.

While it remains unclear what the US administration will decide next, a scenario outlining what such an engagement might entail can be constructed by examining recent developments in the US-Mexico relationship and US counterterrorism efforts.

The following outlines a potential four-part sequence of events that could unfold if the United States conducts a direct military action against the cartels.

Step 1: Build relationships and training

US-Mexico cooperation is the best method of addressing the cartel problem. Therefore, at the start of this scenario, the new administration will likely work to establish operational partnerships with its Mexican counterparts. However, fostering reliable relationships may be challenging due to the country’s alleged entanglement with cartels.

Two recent criminal cases brought by the US Department of Justice against two of Mexico’s highest-ranking former law enforcement and military officials highlight the problem. In 2020, former Defense Minister Gen. Salvador Cienfuegos Zepeda was accused of using his position to aid the H-2 Cartel in drug smuggling. In 2024, former Mexican Secretary of Public Security Genaro García Luna was sentenced to thirty-eight years in prison for taking bribes from the Sinaloa Cartel in exchange for assisting the cartel. Moreover, a US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) report found evidence that cartels had funneled millions into the 2006 presidential campaign of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO.

In a move that perhaps anticipates the difficulty of engaging a government compromised by cartel influence, Trump appointed Ron Johnson as US ambassador to Mexico. Johnson is a former US ambassador to El Salvador, retired Green Beret, and veteran CIA officer with more than twenty years of experience leading sensitive paramilitary operations. He is uniquely equipped to secure cooperation from civilian officials while mitigating counterintelligence risks from cartel-affiliated public officials.

The US-Mexico military relationship presents a different set of challenges. During his term as president of Mexico (2018-2024), ALMO increased the funding and authority of the Secretariat of National Defense (SEDENA) in order to expand the main military branch’s role beyond military operations into civilian functions, such as law enforcement and infrastructure projects. However, this expansion occurred during a three-year absence (2019-2021) of a formal US-Mexico counternarcotics agreement, after AMLO pulled out of the Merida Initiative agreement in his first months in office. During this time, cartels extended their territorial control and fueled the rise of fentanyl-related overdose deaths in United States. The Mexican military’s expanding role in civil society and private business in recent years, coupled with allegations of corruption and cartel collusion, particularly around intelligence leaks, may complicate the US relationship with Mexico’s primary military branch. However, given its dominant role in Mexico’s national security, the US will continue to engage with SEDENA on conventional military cooperation, particularly in curbing migration and drug smuggling on the US-Mexico border.

By contrast, the smaller Secretariat of the Navy (SEMAR), a separate federal executive cabinet member, has built a strong record in conducting successful specialized counter-narcotics operations and has maintained a long-standing partnership with US forces and the DEA. Given its specialized capabilities and established US relationships, SEMAR is well-positioned to be a key partner in any potential US-led joint operations with Mexico against cartel leadership. The fact that the first joint training under the Trump administration was conducted by Green Berets and SEMAR further suggests this likelihood.

Step 2: Identifying first targets

What cartels might the United States target first? Among the candidates, the Sinaloa Cartel, one of two cartels reportedly responsible for the majority of drug trafficking into the United States, is likely high on the list. As the most powerful drug-trafficking organization in the Western Hemisphere, its influence extends beyond narcotics and human smuggling. The cartel has been involved in business extortion, illegal mining, and oil theft, as well as infiltrating formal businesses to launder money.

But what sets the Sinaloa Cartel apart is its deep ties to China in the fentanyl trade. The cartel has reportedly relied on Chinese suppliers for precursor chemicals, and it uses Chinese money-laundering networks to clean its illegal profits. The Sinaloa Cartel’s danger to US interests is so significant that it has been the primary target of congressional investigations and aggressive US law enforcement actions in recent years, with the most notable recent step against the group being the arrest of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, the co-founder and leader of the group, in 2024 by the Biden administration.

The Sinaloa Cartel’s willingness to partner with a major state adversary to flood the United States with deadly drugs underscores its growing brazenness in violating US sovereignty and undermining national security. Targeting the Sinaloa Cartel first would not only disrupt one of the largest fentanyl producers in the Western Hemisphere but also send a clear message to other cartels to refrain from engaging with China and other states hostile to the United States.

Step 3: Covert action and “shock and awe” strategy

Once training operations conclude and intelligence assets finalize target selection, the United States will need to consider its next steps. In the past, countercartel efforts have been managed primarily by US law enforcement agencies, such as the DEA and Federal Bureau of Investigation. These agencies conduct criminal investigations and collaborate with their Mexican counterparts to arrest cartel operatives for prosecution in Mexico or extradition to the United States for trial.

However, the new US administration’s decision to allocate significant resources from the Department of Defense and the CIA to dismantle the cartels suggests that more aggressive measures are also being considered, potentially including the launch of a military campaign. Such a step would require the administration to initiate a formal procedure for authorization.

The first option the Trump administration can pursue is a formal Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) approved by Congress. This would allow the administration to deploy military assets in an open and continuous manner under Title 10 of the US Code. However, given the political sensitivity of US troops operating on Mexican soil, the administration may instead opt for a second option: a CIA-directed covert action conducted in secrecy and under Title 50. In this scenario, Trump would issue a presidential finding that authorizes the CIA to conduct covert actions against the cartels. From there, CIA paramilitary officers or special forces units, typically under Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), would be used to carry out the secret operations. Trump has historically favored covert operations in counterterrorism efforts against al-Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), making this a more likely scenario.

Regardless of which option the administration chooses, it is likely to launch robust kinetic operations during the initial phase of the conflict. The Trump administration’s designation of the eight cartels as FTOs strongly supports this expectation. This is because the first Trump administration may have set a precedent when it placed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force on the FTO list just eight months prior to the assassination of its leader Qasem Soleimani. Importantly, the Department of Defense announcement of his killing references his leadership in the FTO-designated group in the opening sentence.

Specifically, in the cartel context, the United States may employ a “shock and awe” strategy that is similar to the first Trump administration’s rapid-strike military campaigns against ISIS. The goal of this approach would be to overwhelm the cartels’ forces through raids and to eliminate high-value cartel targets, particularly sicarios and mid-level commanders coordinating logistics and enforcement operations. In such a scenario, the United States would likely provide heavy air support in order to prevent cartel counteroffensives and ensure that targeted cells cannot regroup or retaliate. This may include US forces embedding with the Mexican navy’s special forces. Drone warfare may also be used to eliminate high-value cartel command centers, fentanyl production labs, and weapons depots.

Finally, it’s important to note that such direct actions against cartel factions will likely complement, not replace, ongoing bilateral operations between the United States and Mexico to extradite senior cartel leaders for prosecution. Instead, lethal actions can be expected to focus on cartel security forces and professional sicarios responsible for enforcing the cartel’s rule through violence in Mexico, including the assassination of elected officials, journalists, and innocent civilians.

Step 4: Concession and enforcement

Military force will be central in the early phases of the conflict, but the Trump administration has historically followed extreme pressure with engagement. Accordingly, after an initial shock-and-awe campaign, the administration is likely to push for the Mexican government to lead discussions with the cartels to compel them to end their drug smuggling, particularly synthetic drugs, and human trafficking operations in the United States, while also demanding that they sever business ties with state adversaries such as China.

Early signs of this strategy may already be emerging. In February, open-source intelligence indicated a ceasefire was brokered between the Grupo Escorpion and Metros cartels in the northern state of Tamaulipas that called for the end of fighting between the groups and an end to fentanyl trafficking into south Texas. This event, credited to pressure from the Mexican government, could serve as the recipe for future US efforts. This model of applying overwhelming force to compel cartels into submission, followed by behind-the-scenes discussions, will likely define the long-term course of the conflict. Continuous monitoring and enforcement will be essential to ensure compliance with the concessions.

After “shock and awe”

How would cartels respond to a “shock and awe” military campaign similar to that which destroyed the ISIS caliphate? While cartels control territory, command militia-style forces, and possess military-grade weaponry, they lack a standing army, which makes it more difficult for them to survive a sustained military campaign. Additionally, their tactics are limited to lightweight ambushes and terroristic actions, primarily targeting civilians and rival groups.

Unlike ideological terrorist organizations, cartels operate as businesses. When their funding streams and resources are severely threatened, they are more likely to adapt, negotiate, and shift operations rather than engage in prolonged conventional warfare. Therefore, targeted military attacks on cartels could potentially lead to successful cartel concessions. Furthermore, while direct narco-terrorist attacks on US soil from Mexican cartels are unlikely, US military actions against them could create an opportunity for other state-sponsored groups to conduct counteroffensive attacks, such as targeting US law enforcement officials and terrorizing civilians.

While it remains to be seen whether the United States will conduct direct military action, one thing is clear: the Trump administration’s efforts to combat drug smuggling and human trafficking into the United States is not likely to be a short-term political goal. Instead, these efforts represent a significant step in redefining US grand strategy away from maintaining the country’s post–World War II global primacy toward securing concrete national interests closer to home. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth articulated this shifting policy during a recent Pentagon town hall, stating, “Chaos happens when the perception of American strength is not complete. And so, we aim to reestablish that deterrence, and it starts with our own southern border. It starts with the defense of our homeland.”