What Is Putin Thinking? My 3 Theories on Russia’s Relentless War

What Is Putin Thinking? My 3 Theories on Russia’s Relentless War

In life, some things just don’t seem to add up — no matter how much you try to convince yourself otherwise.

Like when my son Matthew insists he didn’t eat the chocolate I left on the table… even though his mouth is completely covered in chocolate. (I love you, Matthew — but come on, even my readers know you ate it!)

That same kind of denial, that same refusal to admit what’s plainly obvious, is what comes to mind every time I think about Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

When Russia invaded Ukraine back in 2022, most of the world thought it would be over within a matter of days. Weeks, at most. Russia was — and still is — a massive, heavily armed military power. Ukraine, by comparison, looked like it didn’t even belong on the same battlefield. Or so we thought.

But here we are, years later, and Ukraine is still standing. Not just standing — but embarrassing Russia on the world stage. Drone strikes. Sinking ships. Destroying tanks. Inflicting huge losses. The smaller, outmatched underdog is holding its own and then some.

And yet, despite all this, Vladimir Putin presses on.

That’s what really fascinates me — and what I want to talk about here. Not Ukraine’s resilience, though it is remarkable. But Putin himself.

If there’s one thing we’ve all learned about Vladimir Putin, it’s that he’s a brilliant, ruthless politician. He’s stayed in power for decades because he knows when to make allies, when to make enemies, and when to strike. I’ve read countless articles about how he lulls his opponents into letting their guard down before striking back when it hurts the most.

But now, after years of sanctions, military losses, and economic hardship for his country, you’d expect a rational leader to cut his losses and walk away.

So why hasn’t he?

It reminds me of standing with Matthew in front of a mirror, pointing out the chocolate on his face while he shakes his head and denies eating it.

Of course, Matthew eventually admitted the truth. Putin, on the other hand, doesn’t seem anywhere close.

In my opinion, there are three possible explanations.

1. Planning his exit

One theory is that Putin already knows his time is almost up. Maybe he’s accepted that his era is ending, and he doesn’t care what’s left for the next leader to clean up. Maybe he simply wants to leave Russia the way he found it — feared, uncompromising, and willing to bleed for its reputation. If this is the case, it’s his farewell act, no matter the cost.

2. Losing his mind

This one worries me the most. Putin is 72 years old at the time of writing. No matter how sharp he once was, age eventually catches up with everyone — even the most powerful among us. Years of stress, pressure, and world-shaping decisions take a toll on anyone’s mind. If he’s facing cognitive decline or even early dementia, it could explain the irrational persistence. And that possibility is scary — not just for Russia, but for the entire world.

3. Willing to risk it all

My final theory is also the most chilling: maybe Putin is ready to take the world down with him. If he feels backed into a corner, humiliated, and desperate to secure his legacy, he may choose chaos over defeat. This is the nightmare scenario — a man with nothing to lose and everything to prove.

Of course, these are just my opinions as an observer, a nurse, and a writer who pays close attention to people and their behavior. But history has shown us time and time again that when ego, power, and desperation mix, the results can be catastrophic.

So what do you think? Is Putin playing his final chess moves? Losing his grip? Or simply doubling down on a dangerous bet?

I’d love to hear your thoughts — feel free to share them in the comments.

And if you enjoy thought-provoking takes like this, don’t forget to support me and follow my journey on Instagram: @MalenurseLife

Let’s keep the conversation going.

Stay healthy,

Nurse Oliver