The Sun Could Destroy the Earth in 2025

In 1859, British astronomer Richard Carrington was observing the sun, studying sunspots, when he noticed a sudden flash of bright light coming from the sun that lasted about five minutes. This turned out to be the most intense solar storm in history, known as the Carrington Event. The sun ejected a massive amount of hot plasma towards Earth, causing widespread destruction.

Gold miners in the Rocky Mountains woke up at 1 a.m., thinking the sun had risen because the aurora was so bright. Telegraph systems around the world were operating without being connected to any power source; they were running off the incredible amount of current generated by the event. Messages were sent from New York to Pittsburgh without the use of electricity.

The terrifying thing is that these events are not rare—seriously, they are not rare. Auroras were seen all around the world, and even in places where you wouldn't typically expect them, like Australia. A local newspaper from the region on September 7th, 1859, even wrote: "Most of our readers saw last week, for three nights commencing after sunset and lighting up the heavens with a gorgeous hue of red, the Southern Aurora."

In 2012, a solar superstorm as large as the Carrington Event narrowly missed Earth by just 12 days. And these events occur in cycles. Every 11 years, the sun's magnetic field completely flips, causing a significant increase in solar activity. We're currently entering the next solar maximum right now. So the real question is, "What would happen if the Carrington Event happened again today?" Because in the modern age, everything relies on electricity.

The lights in our homes, the phones in our hands, and even many of our cars are dependent on electricity. So how would we recover if the world's energy grid was knocked offline for multiple years? These events release an unimaginable amount of energy. The Carrington flare carried 4 x 10^32 ergs of energy, roughly equivalent to 700 billion nuclear bombs the size of Little Boy, the Hiroshima bomb.

A 2013 study estimated that the electrical outages caused by a Carrington-level event would cost the North American power industry alone $2.6 trillion. There would be global blackouts lasting for years, no lights anywhere in the world for the first time in centuries. I mean, call me selfish, but can you imagine the view everyone would have of the stars at night? This blackout would occur because the event would damage these extremely high-voltage transformers that are insanely difficult to replace.

But what about our activities in space? What would something like this do to satellites, rockets, telescopes? If it occurred while people were working on the moon base planned by NASA, it would cause huge problems for them because this kind of radiation is not kind to the human body. Satellites that orbit really high above the Earth are in big danger too. These satellites are bombarded with high-energy particles, leaving them damaged. The scary thing is most of these high-orbit satellites control our communications and GPS. Starlink has already lost $50 million worth of satellites to geomagnetic storms.

What scares me even more is that the Carrington Event, the biggest solar storm in recorded history, is actually relatively small compared to older events. Scientists were able to look at the tree rings in ancient forests and measure carbon-14 atoms in each ring. Spikes in carbon-14 atoms suggest a super flare occurred in that year, and they found huge spikes in the years 774 and 994. For these events to be recorded in the tree rings, they would have had to be massive, maybe 10 or even 100 times bigger than the Carrington Event.

So why do these crazy events keep happening, and why do I think we're entering the most dangerous period for solar activity in the entire decade? Well, just like the seasons, the sun actually has cycles. Every 11 years, the sun's magnetic field flips, causing an increase in solar activity. During these maximums, the sun is extremely active, regularly emitting coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Our current cycle started back in 2019, and it will reach its maximum in the year 2025. We still don't fully understand these cycles and are always learning more, but there is one thing that is certain: We need to be prepared for 2025.

Well, I guess the ultimate question is, what can we actually do to protect ourselves? It all starts with detecting it to give everyone as much warning as possible. Using the SOHO spacecraft, we are constantly looking for these ejections of mass to see if they are aimed at us. When we do see one heading for us, we can calculate when it will arrive, and based on its speed, this usually gives us around 12 to 48 hours of warning. This time is precious, so everyone will need to act quickly.

Governments need to sound alarms and order all energy grids to be shut down and disconnected. Everyone will need to disconnect their electronics and wrap their phones and other small electronics in tin foil to prevent them from being fried. Satellites will be put into safety mode to protect them from damage. If everything is done quickly, we will be able to reconnect the grid and start everything back up. Hospitals and other emergency services require electricity, and under these conditions, they simply can't have access to the power they need, so people would likely die as a result of it. Your car would probably be okay, but many of the electronic components would be completely fried. The screens, the charging ports, and the reversing cameras would all likely be destroyed.

The odds aren't insanely high, but the danger is definitely real. Some scientists believe there is a 12% chance we will be hit by a Carrington-level event in the next 10 years, and we're about to enter the most dangerous period, the Solar Maximum. If there was an asteroid heading for Earth, everyone would be going crazy, but these things are quiet. Solar storms strike in the darkness and pose a threat to the entire globe. It's not a matter of if one hits us, but when—and when it does, we need to be prepared.

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