The Factors Behind China's Shrinking Population

China's demographic landscape has undergone significant changes in the past six decades. While birth rates remained high for most of this period, a pivotal moment occurred in 2022 when the country experienced more deaths than births, leading to a population decrease for the first time in 60 years. Given China's status as the world's manufacturing superpower, heavily reliant on its vast population (contributing nearly 30% to its economic output), this decline carries significant implications.

Even after losing almost a million people in 2022, China's population remains considerable, with approximately 1.4 billion people. However, projections indicate that it will shrink by nearly half by the end of the century. China's population growth and the policies implemented have played a crucial role in this decline. The government now seeks to reverse this trend and stabilize the population, but it may be too late.

Looking back at history, during the 1950s under Mao's leadership, China endured a devastating famine that claimed the lives of 30 million people. This event caused a sharp spike in deaths and a subsequent decline in birth rates, resulting in a shrinking population. Yet, the country later experienced a baby boom, partly due to improved medical advances and a rise in the average family size to six children. The government recognized the need to control the population and introduced the "Later, Longer, Fewer" policy, encouraging delayed marriages, longer birth intervals, and fewer births.

In 1980, the Chinese government implemented the extreme one-child policy, enforced through severe measures like sterilizations, IUD insertions, and induced abortions. Though it succeeded in controlling population growth, it led to a unique family structure known as the 4-2-1 model, with one child responsible for caring for four parents and two sets of grandparents. This structure, combined with financial pressures and rising costs of living, has discouraged young people from having multiple children.

In an effort to encourage higher birth rates, China eventually ended the one-child policy in 2016 and later allowed families to have as many children as they desire in 2021. However, these measures have not effectively addressed the declining birth rate.

The consequences of this demographic shift extend beyond the number of babies being born. China faces challenges in balancing its aging population with the younger workforce. As the elderly population increases, and birth rates remain low, the country confronts a unique set of problems, including a shrinking labor force and the strain on social safety nets.

China's economic modernization over the past few decades has been remarkable, making it a leading global economy by GDP. However, this rapid development has not evenly benefitted all citizens, particularly those in rural areas. Moreover, the country lacks sufficient social infrastructure to support its aging population, which takes time to establish. Slowing economic growth further compounds the difficulties in building the necessary social programs.

As China's population growth officially comes to an end, the country must reassess its future trajectory both as a global superpower and in terms of domestic well-being. Other countries are also experiencing population declines, but China's situation stands out due to the speed at which these changes have occurred. Resource constraints could impact China's ambitions and global influence, redefining its role in the world. Ultimately, China faces complex challenges in shaping a sustainable future for its citizens and its position on the international stage.