Global Temperature Outlook for Early 2026: Widespread Warmth Forecast Across Northern Hemisphere and Tropics

A Warm Start to 2026: Global Forecasts Signal Widespread Heat for the Northern Hemisphere

New seasonal outlooks from the World Meteorological Organization detail the probable climate patterns as La Niña fades, with above-normal temperatures expected for vast regions.

In a planet accustomed to climatic extremes, the start of 2026 is shaping up to follow a clear, warm trend. According to the latest seasonal forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and other leading climate agencies, a significant portion of the globe is expected to see above-normal land surface temperatures for the first quarter of the year . This widespread signal comes as a key climate driver—the La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean—begins a rapid transition toward a neutral state, creating a complex picture for global weather patterns .

The Ocean's Shifting Baseline: La Niña in Retreat

The current climate forecast is anchored by a major shift occurring in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which cycles between warm (El Niño), cool (La Niña), and neutral phases, is in a state of change .

The latest diagnostic discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center confirms that while a La Niña Advisory remains in effect, a transition is imminent . There is a 75% chance of a shift to ENSO-neutral conditions during the January-March 2026 period, with neutral conditions likely to persist through at least late spring in the Northern Hemisphere . The International Research Institute for Climate and Society's forecast underscores this, placing the probability of La Niña at just 31% for January-March, with ENSO-neutral as the dominant category at 69% .

This breakdown is not projected to be gradual. Ocean analysis indicates La Niña has already reached its peak, with cold ocean anomalies weakening rapidly from the west, a process accelerated by significant westerly wind bursts . This effectively means the "engine" that has been influencing global weather is powering down, but its atmospheric influence will lag, continuing to shape conditions through the early spring .

The Temperature Outlook for January-March 2026

The consensus across global forecast models is robust: the signal for warmer-than-normal temperatures is strong and extensive for the start of 2026 .

Here are the key regional projections for land surface temperatures during the January-March period:

· Northern Hemisphere (north of 30°N): A high probability of above-normal temperatures, supported by strong model agreement .
· North America: Enhanced chances for above-normal conditions in the southern and northeastern United States, Central America, and the Caribbean .
· Tropical Regions: A strong probability for above-normal temperatures over equatorial Africa and the Maritime Continent (including Indonesia and surrounding areas) .
· Southern Hemisphere: Enhanced probabilities for warmth over northern New Zealand and parts of southern South America .

This warming is not limited to land. Widespread above-normal sea surface temperatures are projected for the North Pacific, the tropical North Atlantic, and the eastern Indian Ocean .

Rainfall and Regional Climate Impacts

Even as ocean temperatures move toward neutral, the atmospheric footprint of La Niña is expected to linger, influencing global rainfall patterns through early spring . The resulting precipitation outlook presents a mixed global picture.

· Drier-Than-Normal Signals:
· Pacific: Suppressed rainfall across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, a classic La Niña signature .
· Americas: Southern North America and northeastern South America .
· Asia: Parts of eastern Asia .
· Wetter-Than-Normal Signals:
· Pacific & Asia: The Philippine Sea and northern Asia .
· Americas: Northern North America, the Caribbean, and a zone from southern Central America into northwestern South America .
· Europe: Northern Europe shows an increased probability for above-normal rainfall .

For North America, the late-winter pattern may resemble a classic, albeit fading, La Niña setup. This can include cooler, wetter conditions in the northwest and north-central parts of the continent, with warmer, drier conditions in the south . However, the forecast for northwestern North America currently lacks a consistent temperature signal, highlighting local variability .

The Bigger Picture: Looking Ahead to 2026

The climate story of 2026 extends far beyond the first quarter. The anticipated rapid fade of La Niña and extended period of ENSO-neutral conditions through spring set the stage for the next major climatic shift.

Many long-range models now indicate a growing probability of a new El Niño event developing by the summer or fall of 2026 . The IRI forecast shows El Niño probabilities becoming the most likely outcome (around 48-51%) by the middle of the year . Forecasters note that a strong subsurface warm pool in the Pacific—a typical precursor to El Niño—is already in place .

If this transition occurs, it would represent a complete flip from the current pattern, with significant implications for global weather during the second half of 2026 and into the 2026/2027 winter . For instance, El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and bring distinct winter weather patterns across North America, often opposite to those of La Niña .

It is crucial to view these seasonal climate patterns within the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is raising long-term global temperatures and exacerbating extreme weather . Natural cycles like ENSO now operate on a warmer planet, amplifying their impacts and contributing to the strong global warmth projected for the coming months.