Trump’s first trade ‘deal’ doesn’t bode well for the rest of the world

So... apparently we’ve got ourselves a “full and comprehensive” US-UK trade agreement.

Big moment, yeah? Cue the confetti, pop the champagne, maybe even dust off the “Mission Accomplished” banner?

Eh, actually — maybe hold off on the bubbly. Like, just stick it back in the fridge.

Because this “deal” — and I’m using that term pretty generously — is less of an actual deal and more like the idea of a deal. Or maybe it’s a promise to one day try and come up with a real deal. If a proper trade agreement is Michelangelo’s David, this thing is more like a crumpled receipt for a block of marble we might buy. Someday.

Anyway, here’s what the US and UK actually announced on Thursday:

So Trump’s team — wait for it — kept the tariff on British imports at 10%. Yup, same as before. The same 10% he rolled out on April 2. Nothing new there. BUT! They did toss in a few little “carve-outs” to make it feel like progress, mostly helping companies that already have private jets or make luxury cars.

Fancy British cars: You know, just in case you’ve been saving up for a Rolls-Royce or maybe an Aston Martin (same). Those were gonna get hit with a 27.5% tax, but now it’s only 10%. Big win for maybe 500 Americans.

Plane stuff: UK companies can send aircraft parts to the US without paying tariffs. And in exchange, British Airways might buy 30 Boeing 787s. So, cool, a plane swap.

Steel and aluminum (or “aluminium” if you’re feeling British): Tariffs go

Beef and farm stuff: Both sides are now cool with more tariff-free agricultural exports. So I guess there’ll be more British beef on American grills this summer

And… yeah, that’s pretty much the whole thing. No full agreement text. No final rules. No hard deadlines. Just... vibes. Both sides basically said, “We’re still working out the details,” which is trade-speak for, “Let’s talk later.”

Economist Joe Brusuelas summed it up pretty well: “A trade agreement where the details are still being negotiated is not an agreement.” Which, yeah — that tracks.

You wouldn’t guess any of this from the way it was announced, though. Trump got on Truth Social to declare it “a very big”—something (he never finished the sentence). And UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called it “historic,” with a totally straight face, though to be fair, he phoned it in — literally. He wasn’t even in the room. Apparently, Trump called him at the last second. Classic 11th-hour Trump.

The Brits, to their credit, know how the game is played. When asked if this was a real improvement in US-UK relations, Starmer replied, “The question you should be asking is: Is it better than where we were yesterday?”

Which is basically the most polite way possible to say, “We're just trying not to piss off the guy with the nukes.”

Meanwhile, Wall Street didn’t hate it. Markets jumped a bit — not because anyone believes this thing is groundbreaking, but because investors are desperate for any hint that Trump might cool off on the trade war. A baby step forward is still, technically, a step.

That said… let’s be real. It took over a month of negotiations to slap together this symbolic nothingburger with a close ally — a country that, by the way, makes up only about 3% of US trade. Not exactly confidence-inspiring for whatever’s coming next with, say, China — where the tariffs are still at a cartoonish 145%.

Speaking of which, US and Chinese negotiators are meeting this weekend in Geneva. Expectations? Super low. The best anyone in the administration is hoping for is just a “de-escalation.” Whatever that means.

Here’s the real takeaway: Nothing major has changed. The US still has an effective tariff rate of around 22%, which is the highest it’s been in over 100 years. Before Trump? That number was more like 2.5%.

Economist Justin Wolfers hit the nail on the head: “The most important fact about today’s trade deal is that the 10% tariffs are staying. Tiny tweaks here and there won’t change that. The US is now a high-tariff country. The trade war? Still very much on.”