So Many Clinching Scenarios, So Little Time (Week 15)

For only the third time since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978 (it's 17 games now), Week 14 ended with no playoff spots clinched. So with four weeks remaining, all fourteen slots in this year's NFL Playoffs are all open, though after Week 15, seven of them (an even 50%) could be filled. Before we get to the scenarios, here's the playoff picture.

A three-way tie exists for the top record in the American Football Conference, as the New England Patriots, the Tennessee Titans, and the Kansas City Chiefs are all 9-4. New England's 7-1 conference record is the best among the tied teams, giving them the #1 slot, while Tennessee's in-season win over KC puts them at #2, while the Chiefs are #3. The AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens drop to #4 at 8-5, doing so after suffering a loss to the Cleveland Browns.

The Los Angeles Chargers hold the #1 Wild Card position at 8-5, but what follows is a clogged logjam consisting of eight teams separated by only one game. The Indianapolis Colts, the Buffalo Bills, the Cleveland Browns, the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Denver Broncos are all 7-6! So which of those teams are in playoff positions entering Week 15? The Colts and Bills. The Colts' 6-3 record in conference play is the best out of the five teams, and the Bills' 5-5 conference record puts them in the other slot. Cleveland has head-to-head over Cincy, and Denver's at the bottom due to their 3-5 conference record. The Pittsburgh Steelers are right behind those teams at 6-6-1, while the Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins are each 6-7. Week 14 saw the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars eliminated from playoff contention.

The National Football Conference also has a three-way tie at the top, with the Green Bay Packers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Arizona Cardinals at 10-3. This occurred when both Bays won and Arizona lost in Week 14, and regarding tiebreakers, the Packers' win over the Cards and their 8-2 conference record make them the #1 team. The Bucs and Cards each have identical 6-3 conference record, but Strength of Victory puts the defending Super Bowl Champions over the NFC West leaders, meaning that the Cardinals dropped from #1 to #3 in a week. The Dallas Cowboys set at #4 at 9-4, while leading the NFC East by three games.

The Los Angeles Rams remained at the #1 Wild Card spot at 9-4, while the San Francisco 49ers hold the #2 Wild Card position at 7-6. However, a five-way tie at 6-7 exists between the Washington Football Team, the Minnesota Vikings, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Atlanta Falcons, and the New Orleans Saints. The tiebreakers go to Washington for that last slot, due to their 5-3 conference record being ahead of Atlanta and Minnesota, as well as their 1-1 division record being better than Philadelphia's 0-2 tally. The only team who is not alive in the NFC playoff race is the Detroit Lions, as they became the first NFC team to be officially eliminated from playoff contention.

Again, half of the NFL's playoff field could be filled up after Week 15, with five of the teams being in the NFC:

The top-ranked Packers' scenarios didn't work out in Week 14, but their win over the Bears earned them something that's just as important: controlling their own destiny. That's the best feeling in football: the "win and in" scenario. In the case of the Packers, all they have to do is beat the Ravens, and they will enter the playoffs as champions of the NFC North. A Vikings loss also does it, but they face the Chicago Bears on Monday, and there are playoff clinching scenarios that don't even involve the Packers at all (losses from NO and SF, among a few others), but no team wants to back into anything. The Bucs and Cards also control their own destiny; if the former wins, they win the NFC South, but the Cards can only lock in a playoff spot with a win, as they cannot clinch the NFC West during Week 15. The Buccaneers host the Saints on Sunday Night Football, while the Cards head to Detroit to face the Lions.

The Dallas Cowboys can get into the playoffs in Week 15. A win and either a loss/tie from the Saints or a loss from the Niners gets them in. If they tie, the Saints, Vikings, and Falcons all cannot win. Even if the Cowboys lose, they can still get in with losses from the Falcons, Vikings, and Saints along with either an Eagles tie or the Cowboys clinching at least a tie Strength of Victory over Philly. In that regard, Dallas will need at least a tie from any of the following teams: Arizona, Miami, New England, Cincinnati, and the Chargers. The Cowboys can clinch the NFC East with a win and a Washington tie. It can also be done with a win, a Washington loss and (again) clinching at least a tie with Philly for Strength of Victory. In that regard, Dallas will need at least a combined 4.5 wins (four wins and a tie) from the following teams: Minnesota, Arizona, Miami, New England, Cincinnati, and the Chargers.

Let me just say this: while I enjoy following all of the playoff scenarios, I hate the ones involving Strength of Victory or Strength of Schedule. That is too much to follow regarding one team; you have to look at nearly every team that the other teams have played. It's a headache. Regarding Dallas, they face the Giants, while Washington will face Philly for the first time this season.

Thanks to their big Monday Night win, the Los Angeles Rams can clinch a playoff spot in Week 15. A win and a loss/tie from the Vikings and Saints will do it. A win, an Eagles tie, and either the Vikings or Saints not winning will do it. Even if they tie, losses from the Vikings and Saints, and the Falcons not winning will do it. The Rams will host the Seattle Seahawks, and the Falcons will be in Santa Clara against the 49ers.

In the AFC, two teams can clinch playoff spots in Week 15: the Tennessee Titans, and the New England Patriots. The Titans have the more simple scenario: a win and a Colts loss will give them the AFC South. That's it. There are no other scenarios where the Titans can simply clinch a playoff spot with a win and help; that's the scenario right there. The Titans will face the Pittsburgh Steelers, but before that, the Indianapolis Colts will be at home against the New England Patriots in the second half of a Saturday doubleheader, so the Titans will definitely keep an eye on that game.

Speaking of the Patriots, they can also get into the playoffs, but the list of ways they can get in is longer than the football field they play on. This is solely because of the cluttered AFC playoff race; nine teams all bunched up for the three Wild Card spots. There are 15, count 'em, 15 different clinching scenarios for the Patriots, and all of them involve them having to win and the Miami Dolphins having to fail to win. Five of the 15 involve clinching either a share or control of the Strength of Victory tiebreaker over the Cincinnati Bengals; I won't get into all of that. Even the remaining ten scenarios that don't involve SOV have the Patriots needing a win, a Dolphins loss or tie, and four or five other AFC teams needing to fail to win. Literally, the only team not involved in a Patriots clinching scenario is Tennessee. That's how crazy it is.

But despite having 15 scenarios, there's a problem: the Dolphins host the New York Jets in Week 15. In all of New England's clinching scenarios, the Dolphins need to lose or tie, and I can't see them doing anything but win against the lowly Jets. So all the Patriots need to do is just win, and their scenarios will become clearer afterwards. In any regard, Week 15 will be very captivating with so much at stake.

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