It All Comes Down to This (Week 18)

This is it: the final week of the regular season. Everything is guaranteed to be settled on the NFL's season finale, which--for the first time in 17 years--is Week 18. Week 18 is now the regular final week of the season, but the story remains the same: the last pieces of that proverbial puzzle will be completed. Similar to the final week since 2003, there is no more Monday Night Football; though one of the six Wild Card Playoff games will actually air on Monday, January 17. It's two games on Saturday, while the rest will play on Sunday, with Sunday Night Football ending the regular season. Let's look at what's at stake entering the final week.

The NFC has less on the line, as the Green Bay Packers wrapped up the #1 seed with their win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings, the Washington Football Team, and the Atlanta Falcons were all eliminated, but the New Orleans Saints' victory caused one playoff spot to remain open. All 16 games are divisional, meaning that there are 8 NFC games and 8 AFC games, but only three of the eight NFC games have any relevance. It's only the NFC West and the last spot that are up for grabs, and regarding the former, the Los Angeles Rams will lock up the division with a win or tie or if the Arizona Cardinals lose or tie. The Cards need a win and the Rams to lose.

It's down to the Saints and the San Francisco 49ers for the last spot, with the Niners getting in with a win or tie or a Saints loss or tie, while the Saints need a win and a Niners loss. The Rams host the Niners, the Cards host the Seattle Seahawks, and the Saints face the Atlanta Falcons. The Rams/Niners game has the most importance, as it is the only NFC game with both teams playing for something important. Out of the five other NFC games, two of them (Panthers/Bucs and Cowboys/Eagles) are for seeding, two others (Washington/Giants and Bears/Vikings) feature eliminated teams facing each other, and that leaves Packers/Lions as (most likely) another showcase for Jordan Love.

Though the AFC's numbers are thinning out, there is still a lot to decide in the final week of the season. Literally every position is chaotic: four teams have a shot at the #1 seed! Entering Week 18, the Tennessee Titans and the Kansas City Chiefs are tied at 11-5, but it's the Titans who are in the #1 position due to their in-season victory over KC. The AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals are 10-6, as are the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots, though the Bengals have clinched the conference games tiebreaker over Buffalo, while the Bills' 4-1 division record keeps them atop the AFC East. Despite serving as the East's leader, the Bills are the only team in this logjam who cannot get the #1 seed, but they can capture the division with a win, or a tie and a Patriots tie, or just a Patriots loss.

As for the others, the Titans can clinch the #1 seed with a win over the Houston Texans. If they tie, the Chiefs cannot win. Even with a loss, Tennessee gets #1 with a Chiefs loss, a Bengals loss or tie, and either a Patriots loss or tie or a Bills win. The Chiefs can lock in #1 with a win over the Denver Broncos (on Saturday) and a Titans loss or tie, but if they tie, the Titans have to lose. The Bengals can clinch #1 with a win, losses from the Chiefs and Bengals, and either a Patriots loss or tie or a Bills win. As for the Patriots, a win and a Bills loss or tie gets them the AFC East, and if the Titans and Chiefs also lose, they'll be #1 in the conference.

Five teams remain alive for the final two playoff spots in the AFC, with the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens being among the teams in play. The teams face each other in Baltimore, and both teams need a lot to happen, as they are on the lowest end of the playoff picture. The Steelers (8-7-1) stayed alive with their Monday Night win over the eliminated Cleveland Browns, but they need to win again this week, the Colts have to lose, and the Chargers/Raiders game cannot end in a tie. As for the Ravens (8-8), their downfall continues. They have lost five straight, but they can still get in, but they will need a win, losses from the Chargers and Colts, and the eliminated Miami Dolphins to lose or tie. The losing team in this game will be officially eliminated, and if that team is the Ravens, they will go from leading the entire conference entering the month of December, to eliminated in just six weeks--an absolutely disappointing ending.

The Indianapolis Colts (9-7) failed to clinch a spot last week against the Raiders, but they have one more chance in the final week. It seems easy: all they have to do is win. Their opponents this week: the 2-14 Jacksonville Jaguars. Seems like a given, right? As Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast, my friend." Now, while I still say there's no such thing as "any given Sunday," I have known for years that the final week opens the door for the craziest possibilities. I still remember 2003; the three-win Arizona Cardinals defeating the Minnesota Vikings on the final play to bring Minnesota's season to a premature end. So that can play in Jacksonville's favor. Also, while the Jags have won three of their previous 32 games dating back to the beginning of the 2020 season, one of their three wins was against the Colts. Even if the improbable does happen, the Colts can still get in with a Chargers loss and either a Steelers tie or a Steelers loss coupled with a Dolphins win.

The one thing I love the most about the final week, mainly since the all-divisional schedule began in 2010, as that the league's flex scheduling results in the regular season ending with a do or die borderline playoff game on Sunday Night Football. Most of those games have been for division titles, but in the case of this year, the Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) and the Las Vegas Raiders (9-7) will face each other for (at least) one of the playoff spots remaining. Fittingly, the game is in Vegas, the city that lives on the phrase "all or nothing." It's simple: the winner is in. If the game ends in a tie, the Chargers are in. If the Colts lose and the game ends in a tie, both teams are in. If the Colts lose and the Steelers fail to win, the Raiders will clinch before taking the field, and the Chargers will join them should they beat the Raiders. The Chargers will be eliminated with a loss.

Regarding the Week 18 overall schedule, the AFC #1 Seed storyline begins with Chiefs/Broncos on Saturday, with two of the other connecting games (Bengals/Browns and Titans/Texans) taking place during Sunday's early window. The NFC West, NFC Wild Card, and AFC East storylines will all occur on Sunday's late window, though Patriots/Dolphins is also part of the AFC #1 Seed storyline. Sunday's early window will also see the beginning of the AFC Wild Card storyline with Colts/Jaguars and Steelers/Ravens, and it (as well as the 2021 regular season) will conclude with Chargers/Raiders on Sunday Night Football. The end of the road is here, and it will be a captivating race to the proverbial finish line.

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