Why Trump’s 50% Tariff on Lesotho Will Crash the Economy of One of the Poorest Countries in the World

Former President Donald Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on imports from Lesotho, a small, landlocked nation in southern Africa, has raised alarm among economists, human rights groups, and international trade analysts. Lesotho, with a population of just over 2 million and a per capita income of less than $1,200, is one of the poorest countries in the world. A tariff of this magnitude on its exports to the United States could have catastrophic effects on its already fragile economy.

While the move may be politically symbolic in the U.S., it could economically cripple a nation whose livelihood depends heavily on access to American markets. Here’s why this policy, if enacted, would do more than just damage trade. It could unravel years of development gains in Lesotho and push thousands into deeper poverty.

Lesotho’s Economy at a Glance

Lesotho’s economy is small, fragile, and heavily dependent on three pillars: textile and apparel exports, remittances, and aid. Among these, the apparel sector is the single largest employer in the country, largely driven by access to duty-free exports to the U.S. under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

Over 80% of Lesotho’s textile exports go to the United States. The industry employs an estimated 45,000 workers, most of them women, and indirectly supports up to 200,000 people, nearly 10% of the total population.

So when a 50% tariff is slapped on Lesotho’s products, it's not just a trade issue, it's an existential economic threat.

How a 50% Tariff Would Impact Lesotho

1. Collapse of the Garment Sector

The apparel sector in Lesotho thrives primarily because U.S. brands such as Levi’s, Gap, and Walmart source cheap, quality textiles from the country, thanks to duty-free treatment. A 50% tariff would immediately erase that price advantage. Brands would likely shift orders to cheaper, tariff-free countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, or Ethiopia.

Without that demand, factories would close, and tens of thousands would lose their jobs overnight. This would destroy the country’s largest source of formal employment and foreign currency earnings.

2. Loss of Foreign Investment

Lesotho has attracted foreign investors, mostly from Asia and South Africa, because of its preferential access to U.S. markets. A tariff sends a clear message that this access is no longer reliable. Companies would quickly pull out, halting production and future investment.

3. Widening Poverty and Social Unrest

Lesotho already has a poverty rate of over 49%, and nearly one in four people live on less than $1.90 a day. Removing jobs from the garment sector would worsen these statistics dramatically. With limited social safety nets, families would be unable to buy food, send children to school, or access basic healthcare.

The loss of employment for tens of thousands of women, in particular, would undermine gains in gender equality and empowerment, potentially sparking social unrest, migration, and political instability.

Ripple Effects Beyond Lesotho

This tariff wouldn’t just hurt Lesotho. It would have regional consequences in southern Africa:

 South Africa, which supplies electricity and infrastructure support to Lesotho, may be economically affected by the knock-on effects.

 The Southern African Customs Union (SACU), of which Lesotho is a member, may face trade disruptions.

 U.S. influence in Africa could decline, as countries perceive Washington as an unreliable or punitive trade partner.

At a time when China is rapidly expanding its trade and development presence on the continent, penalizing one of the poorest African countries could push Lesotho, and its neighbors-into tighter relationships with Beijing.

Why Would the U.S. Do This?

From a policy standpoint, it’s unclear what the strategic goal of the tariff would be. Lesotho poses no economic threat to the U.S. and exports a limited range of goods. The country is not accused of currency manipulation, overproduction, or unfair trade practices.

If the move is intended as a blanket “America First” measure, applying high tariffs to all low-income exporters, it fundamentally misunderstands global development economics. Countries like Lesotho rely on preferential trade access to lift their populations out of poverty, and America, through initiatives like AGOA, has historically supported that effort.

Targeting Lesotho undermines decades of soft-power diplomacy and development cooperation between the U.S. and Africa.

The Bigger Picture: When Tariffs Backfire

This proposal is a textbook example of tariffs hurting the wrong people. While large, industrialized nations may absorb or navigate trade restrictions, low-income, export-reliant countries like Lesotho simply can’t. Tariffs of this scale will not bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.-but they will destroy livelihoods in places least able to withstand the shock.

Moreover, U.S. consumers could still feel the effects. Some of the goods produced in Lesotho include affordable clothing and denim worn by millions of Americans. If those products disappear or become more expensive, the impact will reach beyond foreign factories to U.S. wallets.

Conclusion: A Policy with Disproportionate Consequences

A 50% tariff on Lesotho is not just an economic miscalculation-it’s a humanitarian misstep. It threatens to unravel the social and economic fabric of a country that has done everything right in building a sustainable export sector with global support.

If the U.S. truly wishes to promote fair trade, encourage development, and compete globally, penalizing one of the poorest nations on Earth is the wrong way to do it. Instead, strengthening trade relationships with vulnerable economies like Lesotho can foster long-term allies, economic stability, and mutual growth.

In the global economy, small nations matter-and punishing them sends a message that could reverberate far beyond the trade floor.