You can't trump a messiah in an election year, not even in the US

Apart from the early years when I’d not long been granted the right to vote, I’ve not really attended the election pantomime in the United Kingdom for the past 40 years having reached the conclusion long ago that politics is a rigged game across the globe.

Generally speaking Labour or Conservative, Democrat or Republican the important issues in life are decided so far above their candidates’ pay grades that who carries the top job at Westminster or the White House is really insignificant with regard to humanity’s key decisions, as events in Gaza for the past 12 months have shown.

For most politicians being a “friend of Israel” is a very lucrative little sideline and that’s without the other bungs on offer from all the other pressure groups vying for favour. Integrity pays relatively poorly in politics, whereas iniquity means a nice little pot to splurge on a luxury car, an idyllic Caribbean getaway or a lifetime’s membership at Quo Vadis in Soho.

The date of this summer’s British general election turned into something of a hot topic, with Rishi Sunak’s decision to call it for early July taking all but his closest Tory associates with some surprise.

Not Sunak’s parliamentary private secretary and Conservative candidate in Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr though, Craig Williams placed a £100 bet with bookmaker Ladbrokes that the election would be held in July.

Funny that, but not for Williams as it turned out. His bet, placed three days before the date was announced, was automatically flagged by Ladbrokes and was subsequently referred to the Gambling Commission. So the Conservative Party pulled the plug on Williams, withdrawing its official support for his candidacy, although he still stood as the party’s candidate for the seat, where he finished third behind Labour’s Steve Witherden and Reform’s Oliver Lewis. Not heard whether any of his family cashed in on a place bet though.

And, of course Williams was not alone, at least 15 members of the Conservative Party were reportedly flagged for investigation by the Gambling Commission for placing bets around the election, with Sunak saying he was “incredibly angry” about the allegations. But it’s all water under the bridge now, the Conservatives lost the election so it’s now the turn of the Labour Party’s politicians to feather their nests.

But whatever’s good for the geese in the UK, the ganders in the United States have it better so it came as no surprise when a federal appeals court in Washington allowed a prediction market to offer election betting this week, denying a watchdog’s request to halt the ruling that made way for legal political gambling in the US.

A few hours after the ruling New York-based startup Kalshi, an online platform that gives users the ability to bet on outcomes of future events, relaunched its congressional control contracts opening up the market for Americans to bet on which party will control the House and Senate in 2025.

The panel of three judges unanimously ruled the Commodity Futures Trading Commission had failed to demonstrate how the bets were illegal and could harm the integrity of elections.

The ruling allows the commission to make another bid to pause the court’s decision while an appeal plays out “should more concrete evidence of irreparable harm develop”.

The contracts were initially introduced on 12 September after US District Judge Jia Cobb rejected the commission’s bid to stop the platform’s offering, but the DC Circuit Court of Appeals then temporarily blocked the bets while it considered the case.

Kalshi argued the contracts were in the public interest as they provide accurate data for election forecasting and allow people to hedge their bets on different outcomes, while also drawing attention to Polymarket, an unregulated offshore crypto-based prediction market that rose in popularity following a CNN debate in June where users have bet more than US$1 billion on the presidential race so far.

But Stephen Hall, legal director and securities specialist at non-profit organisation Better Markets, said the court’s order made it “a sad and ominous day for election integrity in the United States”. Election integrity in the US? For goodness sake, don’t make me laugh, that died a death decades ago.

Can’t say I’m that familiar with any “unregulated” betting markets that might exist in the US but I’d wager a few dollars on there being no shortage of opportunities to place bets on the outcome of next month’s race for the White House.

The polls have Democrat Kamala Harris, vice-president during Joe Biden’s turn in office, a few points in front of Republican Donald Trump, bidding for his second coming as president after losing to Biden in 2020. Polls “schmoles”… just one of the media tools to bring an air of authenticity to the election charade.

I’d happily consider covering any bets on Harris being elected in November, but Trump? Not a chance, he’s had his ear pierced and is Israel’s chosen one, the messiah to redeem the world.

But whatever the outcome next month it will still be business as usual in 2025, Harris no more likely than Trump to curb Israel’s terrorist expansionism and genocide in the Middle East considering all the money to be made by US weapons suppliers from arms sales to Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud regime.

If I had money to invest though I’d have considered franchising a “top trumps” version of the 2024 presidential race… and in it I’d have made Trump a cast-iron certainty to come out on top based on overall points, although on individual traits he wouldn’t be ahead of Harris on everything… certainly not integrity!