Ukraine: Stop Invasion!

The war between Russia and Ukraine entered its second month, and with the passage of days many questions emerged, the first of which is: What has each party achieved so far in terms of political and military terms? The second question: Is there a glimmer of hope that this war will end? And if there is hope.. When will the fighting stop?, and the third question: What is the purpose of continuing the fighting now, whether for Russia or Ukraine, then the United States of America, Britain, China, and finally the NATO countries? We will try here to answer those questions.

With regard to achieving the goals so far, we find that Russia has achieved its main goal since the start of the fighting, which is the destruction of the infrastructure of the Ukrainian armed forces, and now the skies of Ukraine are completely open to Russian forces, which prompted the Ukrainian president to ask NATO to intervene by imposing an air embargo on Ukraine, the matter Which was rejected by America and NATO because it means entering into a state of direct war with Russia, which we declared from the beginning that there is no military intervention against Russia.

On the military level, Russia failed to storm the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, after the Ukrainian army withdrew from the open places and fortified inside the cities, the most important of which was Kyiv, the capital, and forced the Russian army to enter into urban warfare, which is the most difficult type of fighting for any regular army. There is no doubt that the arrival of military support from America with Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles helped the Ukrainian fighters repel the attacks of the Russian army and prevent it from entering Kyiv. However, this does not mean that it is impossible to enter Kyiv, as this will require the Russian army to follow a scorched-earth policy, that is, to completely destroy the city, and Russia is capable of doing so with the force of its army fire, and it will cause great losses in civilians, which Russia rejects so as not to deteriorate its reputation globally. Also, Putin considers the Ukrainian people to be part of Russia, and here the Ukrainian people will lose forever. Therefore, Russia began to follow its usual policy of not opening two strategic fronts at the same time, so it began to reposition and withdraw part of its forces from the Kyiv and Chernobyl region and focus on the eastern front in Ukraine towards the Sea of ​​Azov and the Black Sea, where it succeeded in seizing the city of Kherson, and is currently fighting The Russian forces, with the support of the Chechen forces, about 1,000 fighters, to seize the city of Mariupol, where they succeeded in reaching the heart of the city successfully, and thus have achieved the capture of the Donbass direction, where the separate republics of Lugansk and Donetsk are separated from Ukraine. Then the Russian forces head to seize Odessa, and here Russia deprives Ukraine of the Sea of ​​Azov and the Black Sea, and it will be a major strategic strike against Ukraine that will give Russia great power when sitting at the negotiating table.

Politically, Russia has so far won Ukraine’s agreement in principle to neutralise the Ukrainian state on the condition that there are international guarantees for Ukraine that Russia will not repeat its attack on it again, but the problem of Ukraine’s approval of Russia’s annexation of Crimea is a complex matter that has not been resolved so far.

At the level of Ukraine, it has succeeded in mobilising international forces, especially the European Union, to take a stand against Russia and increase economic sanctions against it, and it has succeeded in obtaining increased military and financial support to confront the economic situation that the country has reached, but Ukraine still sees that NATO countries It did not provide it with the necessary offensive weapons, such as MiG-29 planes, Patriot missiles, and radars, although Ukraine receives unremarkable military aid, which is the volume of military information about Russia, which it receives daily from the United States.

When we address the answer to the second question about the hope that this war will end soon, we see that Russia is working to quickly achieve victories on the ground, especially in the Donbass region, after which it will start serious direct negotiations with Ukraine, as the timing set by Russia to end this war is three months, i.e. ending next May, otherwise the economic sanctions imposed on Russia will begin to directly affect it. As for Ukraine, prolonging this war means more destruction of the state's civilian infrastructure, such as water, electricity, transportation, hospitals, etc., so it works on not prolonging the duration of the fighting. On the other hand, we see the United States and Britain working to increase the duration of the war to drain the Russian economy for as long as possible, by increasing military support for Ukraine and increasing economic sanctions against Russia, but some NATO countries and some European Union countries still see the speedy end of this war, including Germany Hungary and Italy, with the aim of Russia pumping natural gas back to these countries, which cannot afford to stop gas heating, although Russia is still paying natural gas to these countries so far. Perhaps the rest of the European countries, China and the countries of the world hope for the speedy end of the war in order to avoid the continuation of the great economic impacts that affected everyone, even Britain, which has the potential of North Sea oil, was forced to increase the price of gasoline for the British citizen, and despite France’s preoccupation with the presidential elections currently, it hopes to The rapid end of the war for the same economic reasons.

This war has shown some impressive results, although it is not over yet. Perhaps the most important of which is the realisation by most countries, including NATO countries, that every country must rely on its military power. NATO will not fight in the future when any of them is threatened. The simplest example of this is the establishment of Germany will increase its military spending this year by 100 billion euros and buy 35 American F35 aircraft, and this matter was rejected by German Chancellor Merkel before, but now conditions have changed, and during the next five years Germany will become one of the five largest military powers in the world. European countries also began to think about relying on alternative energy and returning to nuclear reactors to produce energy, after work had stopped in them after the Chernobyl accident, as well as resorting to solar energy and other energy sources after what happened in this war. In any case, the war is not over yet, and the effects are still visible every day, and we are waiting for the day when the hostilities end to sit together and analyze and explain what happened, and see what are the most important results of the war of the twenty-first century.