Ukraine and conflict backgrounds

Despite the cold winter, the Ukrainian file is witnessing a sharp rise in the conflict at home, in the region and at the global level. What is happening in Ukraine does not belong to it alone. Rather, it is only the small key to the gate of international conflict, and one of the very hot points of conflict for the sharing of new influence in the world, especially between the Russian and American poles, and the latter with the European West. Because everyone is afraid of the growing awakening of the Russian bear, which is trying to restore the situation to before 1997, and end the American presence in particular and its followers in general in NATO in the far southeast in Europe (Poland, Romania and Bulgaria), and in return the United States is trying to stretch in the back garden of the Russian Federation, The imposition of new facts on the Russian territory, and the control of a section of the influence of the old Moscow in the time of the former Soviet Union.

By closely following up on the bilateral US-Russian meetings from Vienna to Brussels to Geneva from 2021 until now, things are still almost in place, especially since there is first: a division within the NATO countries over how to deal with Kyiv in terms of its accession to the alliance, and how to support it militarily and politically. and diplomatically; Second: Western European countries fear that Washington will let them down through bilateral bargaining with Moscow; Third: Despite the escalating threats from the West in general and America in particular against Russia, and the development of eighteen scenarios for confrontation with it, all of them fear that the spark of conflict will ignite because of the dire consequences that it would bear. Fourth: In addition, Western countries in general and America in particular are working to push the Kremlin to take a reckless step to invest it globally against it in international forums.

It is clear that Putin deals with the West with a cold-headed policy, and is not in a hurry to take any political or military calculated step. But from the position of defending Russia’s historical share in its regional framework, encircling any western expansion in the region, defeating it through the policy of imposing facts without a military shot from its forces, and leaving the Ukrainian opposition in the Donbass region to make the life of the leadership in Kyiv worse, in conjunction with strengthening the military presence on the Russian borders In Ukraine, where there are now about 100,000 Russian airborne soldiers, this is accompanied by a series of naval and land military maneuvers in the region and in the warm waters of the Mediterranean, and most importantly, the Kremlin did not retreat an iota from its political and military demands from the West.

Among the demands raised by the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, in his meeting with the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, in the meetings that brought them together several times, the most recent of which was last Friday, January 21, is that Ukraine should not join NATO; Second, the withdrawal of American forces from the far southeast of Europe; And third, and related to the second, the reduction of the number of NATO military personnel in Eastern Europe. And the Kremlin says to the West, deal with Russia, as it is today, not with the calculations of the end of the eighties and the beginning of the nineties of the last century; Fourth, do not approach the Russian sphere of influence, neither in the region nor outside it, in Asia (Syria) and Africa (Central Africa and Mali).

On the other hand, the West opened its files and presented them in bulk to the Russian Federation, including the following: maintaining security in Europe; Secondly, the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Russian-Ukrainian border; Third, disarming the opposition in the Donbass region; Fifthly, restoring diplomatic relations between America and Russia to the level they were in before Putin came to power; Sixth, reducing the role of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner Group in Libya and the Central African Republic; VII stop cyber attacks; Eighth, the protection of democratic freedoms in Russia, and the release of the Russian dissident Alexei Navalny; Ninth, the exchange of prisoners between the two countries and other issues.

Russian Presidents Putin and American Biden met virtually on the last day of 2021 and talked for more than two hours on various issues, yet things are still in place. Despite the talk on Friday by the US Secretary of State of relative progress, the Russian Foreign Ministry, specifically Lavrov, said that it was premature to talk about progress, and even about setting a date soon for the two presidents to meet. Thus, the situation is still stagnant, despite the heat of the situation.

What made matters more ambiguous, and in denial of any progress, was that the Baltic states provided military support to Ukraine yesterday, which is one of the scenarios that were put forward for the lack of direct American intervention, which indicates that the conflict will remain unless one of the parties retreats from its options, specifically the capitalist West in general. America, especially, which wanted to nibble its enemies gradually, now the Russian bear and tomorrow the Chinese dragon. But it seems that America's wishes are far from reality; Because what it suffers from crises and decline does not qualify it to eat a kitten like North Korea.