🥇 Top 15 Betting Favorites for 2028 Presidential Election

1. JD Vance (GOP) – +250 (~28.6%)

Currently the clear favorite in the election markets. BetMGM has him at +250 (28.6%), and Kalshi’s markets suggest a ~23–25% chance to win. He also leads the GOP primary polls, holding a commanding ~54–55% in some betting markets.

2. Donald Trump (GOP, third term) – ~+600 under 2nd on some books

Despite constitutional limits, major books still list Trump as the second-most likely, with odds ranging around +600 to +1333 (roughly 6–14%). Offshore “other” bucket implies ~34.5% across platforms.

3. Gavin Newsom (Dem) – +1000 (9–10%)

BetMGM lists him at +1000 (~9.1%). BetOnline places him as the third choice behind Trump based on moneyline markets. Kalshi sees him as the front‑runner for the Dem nomination (~19.5%).

4. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez (Dem) – +1400 (~6.7%)

BetMGM’s third‑best odds winner at +1400.

5. Josh Shapiro (Dem) – +1600 (~5.9%)

Listed at +1600 alongside Trump Jr. on BetMGM, and featured among top Dem contenders.

6. Donald Trump Jr. (GOP) – +1600 (~5.9%)

Also at +1600 on BetMGM.

7. Pete Buttigieg (Dem) – +1800 (~5.3%)

On BetMGM’s list at +1800.

8. Gretchen Whitmer (Dem) – +2000 (~4.8%)

Rated +2000 on BetMGM and mentioned among top Dems.

9. Michelle Obama (Dem) – +2500 (~3.8%)

Listed at +2500 on BetMGM.

10. Ron DeSantis (GOP) – +2500 (~3.8%)

BetMGM includes him at +2500, and he's second among GOP in some BetUS odds.

11. Nikki Haley (GOP) – +2500 (~3.8%)

Also +2500 on BetMGM.

12. Ivanka Trump (GOP) – +2800 (~3.45%)

BetMGM lists her at +2800.

13. Tulsi Gabbard (GOP) – +3300 (~2.9%)

Appears in BetMGM odds.

14. J.B. Pritzker (Dem) – +3300 (~2.9%)

Included in BetMGM markets.

15. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Dem/Ind) – +4000 (~2.4%)

On BetMGM at +4000. Also noted in media speculation.

🧭 Summary: Why the Rankings Shake Out This Way

Republican bench: Vance leads decisively, with Trump’s continued influence making him the second-most favored despite constitutional uncertainty. DeSantis, Trump Jr., Haley, Ivanka, and Gabbard fill out the GOP’s top-tier mix.

Democratic bench: Newsom pulls ahead in betting markets (and in some primary indicators), followed by AOC, Shapiro, Buttigieg, Whitmer, and the ever‑popular Michelle O. RFK Jr. holds midrange interest among Dem/independent circles.

Betting markets highlight the high variance and intra-party dynamics of a 2028 field shaped by Trump-era influence and shifting Democratic strategies.

🎭 Dark Horse Candidates: The Celebrity Wildcards of 2028

While traditional politicians dominate the betting boards, America’s modern political circus wouldn’t be complete without a few surprise performers waiting in the wings. Here are some of the most talked-about dark horse contenders—especially from Hollywood, tech, and cable news—and their current odds (or lack thereof) of launching a 2028 campaign:

🎤 1. Tucker Carlson (GOP/Independent)

Odds to Run: 15–20%

Odds to Win (if running): +5000 to +10000 (~1–2%)

Why He Could: With a loyal following, massive media reach, and populist credentials, Carlson has already been floated as a Trump successor or spoiler candidate.

Why He Might Not: He’s more powerful behind a camera than in a bureaucracy. Plus, a presidential run would expose him to serious legal and political scrutiny.

💡 2. Elon Musk (Independent)

Odds to Run: 5–10%

Odds to Win (if eligible): ~0% (not natural-born citizen)

Why He Could: Musk flirts with political influence constantly, and his growing ties to free speech advocacy, AI, and national infrastructure have made him a favorite among political outsiders.

Why He Won’t: He’s constitutionally ineligible. But don’t rule out a kingmaker or "shadow campaign" via endorsements or media.

🎙️ 3. Joe Rogan (Independent)

Odds to Run: <5%

Odds to Win (if running): +10000 or higher

Why He Could: Rogan has the largest podcast audience on the planet and appeals to independents, libertarians, and disaffected voters.

Why He Won’t: He’s too self-aware. He’d rather interview a candidate than become one.

🎬 4. Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson (Dem or Centrist)

Odds to Run: 10–15%

Odds to Win (if running): +3300 to +5000 (~2–3%)

Why He Could: Charisma, name ID, and crossover appeal. The Rock has openly discussed the possibility and polls surprisingly well.

Why He Might Not: He’s avoided partisan politics and seems to value brand neutrality.

🎭 5. Stephen Colbert (Satirical Entry/Democrat)

Odds to Run: ~1%

Odds to Win: +20000 (humor markets only)

Why He Could: He once “ran” in South Carolina for laughs—and with the lines between satire and reality blurrier than ever, he could inspire a joke campaign with real followers.

Why He Won’t: He’s far more effective making fun of presidents than becoming one.

🔮 Expect the Unexpected

In today’s media-driven politics, celebrity status often outpaces policy substance. While JD Vance and Gavin Newsom battle over party nominations, any one of these wildcards could disrupt the 2028 narrative, especially if the political establishment grows weaker or voters crave something radically different.

Whether it’s a podcast king, a social media titan, or a former wrestler-turned-movie-star, the next American president might not come from Capitol Hill—but from your Netflix queue or YouTube feed.

🔍 Political Center‑Right Take

Betting markets suggest a GOP edge, largely thanks to the Trump legacy and an Ohio-born VP sounding like a continuation of the current MAGA era. Meanwhile, the Democrats lean on established governors and progressives with national profiles—but none have yet mounted a dominant lead. Vance’s grip appears stronger than any Dem contender’s at present.

Even across party lines, there's more hedge in the GOP lane—i.e., clear leaders plus Trump’s shadow—than among Dems, where long shots and open competition dominate.

⚠️ Notes & Caveats

Odds reflect current sentiments based on betting patterns—not polls or fundamentals.

Constitutional questions (e.g., Trump running again) could dramatically shift markets if resolved.

These are early-stage odds—as of July 2025. With nearly four years to go, surprises are likely.