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This is how the Ukraine-Russia conflict could play out in the next few days – and how it might be resolved

While no one can provide us with conclusive answers, research studies on war can provide us with some insight into how the crisis in Ukraine may play out

By Subeesh Narayanan VPublished 4 years ago 4 min read

Ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia were completed without any openings for a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, but both sides agreed to continue negotiations. The second round of Russian-Ukrainian talks is scheduled for March 2, according to the Russian news agency TASS, citing a Russian source. The report says that Russia is ready to negotiate at a high level with Ukraine. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov is participating in talks with Russian officials in Belarus.

British Foreign Secretary Liz Strass is challenging Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's assertion that Russia's military and weapons stockpiles pose no threat to anyone. President Vladimir Putin complained in a videoconference meeting that the United States and NATO did not respond satisfactorily to Russia's demands to ban Ukraine from joining NATO and withdraw its troops from Eastern Europe. U.S. President Joe Biden said he was "convinced" that President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine by warning Russia against launching what he called a "war of choice" would be disastrous. The crisis in Eastern Europe was entirely imagined by Russian President Vladimir Putin; there is currently no threat to Russia's security from NATO or Ukraine, which could justify the deployment of more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border in preparation for an attack.

Russia is now at war with Ukraine after months of Russian President Vladimir Putin's rally of tens of thousands of soldiers near the Ukrainian border and a series of failed diplomatic talks. The Ukraine campaign began in the early hours of February 24 local time, when Russian President Vladimir Putin launched what he called a "special military operation" in Ukraine, attacking cities from multiple fronts (north, east and south). When President Vladimir Putin called on Kyiv troops to lay down their weapons, Russian troops launched a multi-faceted attack on Ukraine. Within days, Russia's invasion of Ukraine escalated into one of the largest military conflicts in Europe since World War II.

The United States and many European countries are providing military aid to Ukraine in the hope of preventing their invasion. The U.S. has said the U.S. will not involve its troops in any Ukraine conflict, even though Ukraine is receiving additional U.S. military assistance and the U.S. has increased its presence on NATO's eastern flank. Ukrainian officials say the latest military intelligence suggests Russian forces are not ready for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While few expect Ukrainian forces to be able to defend against a full-scale Russian offensive, Ukrainian officials say some sort of guerrilla resistance may develop depending on where and how the attack takes place.

Without a critical mass of support, military resistance will fall apart and Ukraine will lose the war. In the event of an invasion, Ukraine will have to mobilize as many reservists as possible so that it does not become a cakewalk for Russia. The hard part will come when Russia takes revenge, as Russia will, or if Russian President Vladimir Putin attacks Ukraine not with overt military force, but through cyber offensives or recognition of the independence of Kremlin-controlled territories in Ukraine. For the United States and its allies, this is a sensible way to prevent a Putin victory through arms and economic aid to Ukraine, as well as sanctions against Russia.

Sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies may stifle the Russian economy, but they also have a real impact on the Russian people, who have no voice and may not fully understand the scope of the battle for Ukraine. Either a military shift to indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets could undermine Ukrainian resistance, or battlefield casualties and domestic economic hardship could break Russia's will to war. If Moscow decides to attack arms shipments before they reach the Ukrainian border, as some NATO politicians privately fear, it will plunge Europe into the biggest European security crisis since the end of the Cold War.

Satellite images show Russia amassing new troops on the border with Ukraine, which Ukraine claims have mobilized 100,000 troops, along with tanks and other military equipment. In November 2014, the Ukrainian military reported a massive transfer of troops and equipment from Russia to separatist-held areas in eastern Ukraine. In late August, NATO released satellite imagery that NATO saw as evidence of Russian operations in Ukraine using modern weapons, and following the defeat of Ukrainian forces in early September, it became clear that Russia had sent soldiers and armoured vehicles across Ukraine. On the border, locals acknowledge the role Putin and Russian soldiers played in the twist of fate. The Pentagon also said Russia was increasing its troops, and President Joe Biden told Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in a phone call on Thursday that a Russian invasion was likely in February, according to a national security official. Emily Horn's suggestion.

In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin to call for an "immediate end to the violence," the Prime Minister's Office said. The next day, the pro-Russian president reappeared in Russia. At a press conference, he stated that he remains the interim president of Ukraine, just at the moment when Russia launched an open Russian military campaign in Crimea.

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Subeesh Narayanan V

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