The Limits of Saudi Power in Southern Yemen: A Struggle for Control in a Divided Nation

The conflict in Yemen, now in its ninth year, has involved multiple actors with competing interests. One of the most significant powers involved in the Yemen conflict is Saudi Arabia, which has supported the Yemeni government against the Houthi rebels since 2015. However, despite the kingdom's military dominance and substantial financial investments, Saudi Arabia's power in southern Yemen has encountered serious limits. The Southern Transitional Council (STC) and other local factions, once aligned with Riyadh, now challenge Saudi influence in the region, underscoring the complexity of Yemen's ongoing civil war.
The Southern Transition and Saudi Interests
Historically, the southern part of Yemen had its own independent government until its unification with the north in 1990. The unification did not last long, as tensions between the two regions culminated in a civil war in 1994. While the North emerged victorious, the deep divide between the northern and southern regions persisted. The region's desire for autonomy resurfaced after the conflict began in 2015, and the STC, a group primarily based in the south, emerged as a significant player.
Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Yemen's war was initially framed as a campaign against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, but over time, the dynamics became far more complex. With the STC’s growing influence and its desire for greater autonomy for southern Yemen, Riyadh found itself supporting a fractured coalition, one that struggled with competing local interests.
Saudi Arabia’s primary goal in Yemen has been to contain the rise of the Houthi rebels, who control northern Yemen and have ties to Iran. However, its military campaign has failed to defeat the Houthis, and the southern region's instability, fueled by the STC and other local groups, has become another challenge to Riyadh's authority.
The Rise of the Southern Transitional Council (STC)
In recent years, the STC has become one of the most prominent and well-equipped military forces in southern Yemen, despite initially being a Saudi-backed entity. The STC, which seeks greater autonomy for the south, has increasingly challenged Saudi Arabia's authority in the region. The group has been supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has its own interests in the south. As a result, Saudi Arabia has faced growing opposition from a faction it once considered an ally.
The STC's demands for autonomy have led to tensions with the Yemeni government, which is also supported by Saudi Arabia. The STC wants to establish a federal system of government, granting the south significant control over its resources and governance. This vision conflicts with Saudi Arabia's broader goal of preserving Yemen as a unified state under the current internationally recognized government.
The UAE, which has supported the STC, withdrew many of its forces from Yemen in 2019, leaving Saudi Arabia to continue its military involvement. Despite this, the UAE has continued to provide political and financial backing to the STC, which has become a formidable political and military force in southern Yemen.
Saudi Arabia’s Struggle for Influence
Saudi Arabia’s involvement in southern Yemen has become a complex balancing act. On the one hand, the kingdom supports the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which it sees as a counterweight to the Houthi rebels. On the other hand, it needs the support of the STC, which controls significant portions of the south and has become a key player in the conflict.
While Saudi Arabia has tried to maintain influence over the STC, tensions have emerged between the two. The STC has increasingly acted independently of Saudi Arabia and has fought against Yemeni government forces in the south. The group’s push for autonomy has further complicated Saudi Arabia’s position.
The difficulty for Saudi Arabia lies in its inability to fully control the situation in southern Yemen. Despite its military power and financial resources, Saudi Arabia has found it challenging to bring about a resolution to the conflict or ensure stability in the south. The STC’s growing autonomy and the division between Riyadh and its allies in Yemen have limited Saudi Arabia’s ability to assert control over the region.
The Role of External Actors: The UAE and Iran
While Saudi Arabia has tried to maintain influence over southern Yemen, other external actors have played significant roles in shaping the region’s dynamics. The UAE, in particular, has had a strong presence in the south, supporting the STC and providing military backing. The UAE's backing of the STC is rooted in its broader geopolitical interests, including limiting Iranian influence in the region and securing access to the strategic ports in southern Yemen.
The involvement of Iran, through its support of the Houthi rebels, has also complicated the situation. Iran's involvement has added a sectarian element to the conflict, with the Houthis, a Shia Muslim group, facing off against Saudi Arabia, a predominantly Sunni power. Saudi Arabia’s concern about Iran's growing influence in Yemen has been a major driver of its involvement in the war.
The Way Forward: A Fragmented South and a Fragile Peace
As the conflict in Yemen drags on, it remains unclear whether Saudi Arabia will be able to exert control over southern Yemen. While the kingdom has worked to secure a political settlement through the Riyadh Agreement (2019), which was intended to bring the Yemeni government and the STC together, the agreement has largely failed to produce meaningful results. The STC continues to push for autonomy, and the central government remains fragmented, with the war showing few signs of ending.
Saudi Arabia's influence in Yemen is likely to remain limited as long as local actors like the STC continue to challenge the government’s authority. The conflict in Yemen, once seen as a straightforward confrontation with the Houthis, has become far more complex, with competing regional powers and local factions complicating the path to peace.
Conclusion: A Shifting Geopolitical Landscape
The limits of Saudi power in southern Yemen underscore the changing geopolitical dynamics in the region. Saudi Arabia's strategic interests in Yemen have become increasingly difficult to navigate, as its influence is challenged by local actors and rival powers such as the UAE and Iran. The southern region, with its growing autonomy and division between various factions, poses a serious challenge to Saudi Arabia’s regional influence.
As Yemen's civil war continues, the future of Saudi Arabia's role in the country remains uncertain. However, it is clear that the kingdom’s efforts to shape the future of southern Yemen will face increasing challenges as the region becomes more fragmented and complicated by shifting alliances.