The Effects of COVID'19 on Global Economy

November 2019 A 55-year-old individual from Hubei province in China tested positive for COVID'19, at that time no one knew that this will turn into a pandemic, however the cause of this new virus named as (SARS-COV-2) Coronavirus Disease by WHO was believed to be an interaction between bat and human.

Getting to know how does this new virus spreads can help us in its treatment and future prevention according to Li Hua, a structural biologist at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, China explained that coronavirus contains a protein called ‘Spike’ which is different from its other family members this protein has a site which is activated by an enzyme called Furin. Furin is present in various human tissues like (lungs, liver, and intestines ) so this is how coronavirus spreads from human to human very rapidly and the presence of furin enzyme in various human organs indicates that this virus can attack multiple organs.

The novel Coronavirus emerged in China so China was the very first country to observe quarantine as it's world's second most economic state china has experienced a more than 15% reduction in their exports so a crisis in China is guaranteed to be a world crisis. In no time this new virus spread from Wuhan to different cities of China and in the second month of 2020, this becomes a huge global crisis affecting almost 210 countries of the world by the end of March.

The main cause of spread is human contact, and to limit this deadly virus it is necessary to ensure physical distancing all over the world causing sudden shutdowns of industries, shopping malls, tourism, local shops, multi-national and national companies imports and exports, film industries, etc, which has seriously affected the world economy. After China, Italy a European country is severely affected by a large number of deaths, to deal with the economic fallouts. The European central bank has planned to cut its interest rates to negative.

The World's topmost economic states such as ( US, China, UK, Germany, France Italy) are going through tough times and a cherry on the top of the cake is a fall in oil demand and a rise in oil supply by the OPAC+ leading to the fall of prices. Kristalina Georgieva the managing director of International monetary funds (IMF) explained that "a recession at least as bad as during global financial crisis or worse". It has been stated by American officials that American employment would be reduced to 30% and its economy may shrink by half.

Where the response of developing countries towards the virus has been quite appreciable like sudden emergency lockdowns and other serious actions taken by the government, but what about their economy? These countries have a large number of overseas workers, remittances would likely slow down due to delayed salary payments. World bank group president David Malpass Quoted "remittances are a vital source of income for developing countries. The ongoing economic recession caused by COVID-19 is taking a severe toll on the ability to send money home and makes it all the more vital that we shorten the time to recovery for advanced economies" plus this can harm production and employment and if Pakistan and India are considered most of the peoples depend on daily wages due to lockdown these people have no means of income. Pakistan can face a loss of up to 4.64 (GDP) gross domestic product. Pakistan institute of development economics (PIDE) has come up with estimates of COVID'19 losses on account of GDP growth. If imports will be reduced by 2% GDP will decrease to -0.3 similarly if there will be a negative impact of -4.84 percent with a reduction of 20% imports and exports.

Up to now this virus has caused so much damage, the world's economy is facing the hardest times and for the very first time in history, crude oil is 1 barrel per dollar. We can't claim exactly when will this end but According to some economists If we succeeded in controlling corona in the next two months due to stronger and advanced medical facilities the results can be more positive the world's economy can be recovered to its original level by the third quarter of 2022.

If we look at a more positive image the countries like Australia, Cuba, Georgia, Greece and, any more are winning against this coronavirus YES because they followed the guidelines given by the health specialists like strict lockdowns and social distancing why can’t we? We can reduce the number of cases by staying at home it's time to show solidarity against COVID'19 because WE ARE IN THIS TOGETHER.