Opinion: The AMCAN Trade War

Imagine if you're a potato farmer who sells potatoes to a large grocery chain. Then imagine you go to this grocery store and buy carrots, not a lot, just enough for your own family. You get to the register and are met by an indignant manager.

"That'll be $12 000 or we'll put a lien on your house!" They say angrily.

"What's this about?" You ask. Shocked by what you've just heard.

"We're sick of subsidizing you and we're not going to do it anymore." Says the manager. "Last year you sold us $12 000 worth of potatoes, but you've only bought $40 worth of carrots! This is unacceptable! We demand that you pull your weight and buy more!"

"But I don't need more than $40 bucks worth of carrots!" You say. "What would I do with $12 000 worth of carrots?"

How absurd is this conversation? The $12 000 given to you by the chain was justified payment for goods sold. You are no more or less entitled to that money based on how much you purchase from the chain for your own household. It wouldn't make sense to buy the same amount of food a grocery store would purchase to feed a small family.

If it wasn't obvious enough from the get go, this was never about carrots and potatoes. It's about how US President Donald Trump sees international trade and while far more multifaceted than my analogy, reality isn't too far off the mark.

Canada, while geographically larger than the United States, has a population of just 41.5 million as of Jan 1. 2025 according to Statistics Canada. Meanwhile, the United States boasts a population of over 341 Million according to the United States Census Bureau. According to the USTR, the total trade deficit with Canada was 63.3 billion in 2024. What this means is that Canada purchased less goods from the United States last year than the United States bought from Canada. Let me reiterate the fact that the United States has almost 8 times the population of all of Canada to feed, house, and provide goods for.

Therefore, it makes a lot of sense that Canada would buy less than they sell to the USA. Canada is not required to purchase the same amount of goods. They don't need the same amount. It's also worth mentioning that Canada was the top importer of US goods in 2024, meaning that despite the trade deficit, Canada still purchased more US products than any other trading partner worldwide. Would you call that a subsidy? President Trump seems to think so. Afterall, how dare one be expected to pay for services rendered? It's like someone claiming a farmer should buy the same amount of food they sell to a grocery store. It doesn't make sense. Not only does it not make sense to purchase the same amount of goods, but the deficit numbers Trump came up with are off by roughly 137 billion! But this is the logic that governs the US President's Administrations.

They believe and insist that:

a) There is a $200 billion trade deficit with Canada

b)Trade deficit=subsidy

c)Their military is bigger and protects Canada, therefore they ought to own Canada and the country would be an easy target militarily.

d)Tariffs are paid by other countries to the USA, and Tariffs with encourage local manufacturing of goods.

e) Anything Trump's ass can generate is to be treated as undisputed truth.

Yet this is not the case. The reality is this.

a) There is a $63.3 billion deficit with Canada as of 2024, which represents a 1.4% decrease from previous years, which is logical given Canada's smaller population.

b) A trade deficit occurs when the total imports of a country exceed it's exports, while a subsidy is the act of paying part of the cost of something for someone else or to support someone else financially with nothing in return.

c) The US does have a bigger military than Canada, but in no way shape or form does this entitle them to their ally's land. Canada and the US have close military ties and have fought together in all of the major wars the US has engaged in in the past century. In fact, during WW2 Canada declared war on Germany before the United States and played a vital role in the liberation of France and other European nations. Canada's military today is not non-existent, although it is much smaller than the USA. Canada has also committed to increasing military funding up to 34.6 billion according to their department of national defense. Canada also has far more allies than just the United States. Canada, like the US, is a member of NATO, which totals 30 other countries besides Canada and the USA. Beyond that Canada boasts several other non-NATO alliances that include South Korea, Australia, and Brazil among others. If attacked, Canada would not go undefended. Furthermore, Canada being the USA's biggest trading partner by value, any attack on this nation would severely harm the US's economy.

d) Tariffs are effectively trade taxes paid by importers to their own government. This means that US companies are responsible for paying tariffs to the US government when they import goods from other nations. This cost is then passed to the US consumer in the form of product markup. Furthermore, while some tariffs may protect local manufacturing, not all goods and services can physically be provided by the United States or provided at a cost consumers are able to pay. Experts have already established that trying to replace all Canadian goods would take decades and be a "massive headache."

e) Trump's administration is famous for saying whatever the heck will get a rise out of the public and then not following through. I think back to a clip of Karoline Leavitt blathering on about how tariffs supposedly help the American people while the comments absolutely roast her. How is it that a policy that would actively raise prices for Americans, will create "price stability?" The lies just never seem to end.

They claim among other things that Canada's trade practices with the US are unfair, despite the fact that these deals, specifically the USMCA trade agreement was signed in 2018, by President Trump himself. At the time Trump had said,

"The USMCA is the largest, fairest, most balanced, and modern trade agreement ever achieved."

He claims Canada wants to be part of the United States, despite the overwhelming majority of Canadians actively denying this. According to a Leger survey 82% of Canadians oppose being the 51st State. However, he continues to peddle the ridiculous rhetoric of making Canada the 51st State.

Some may see Trump's bid to take over Canada, a sovereign nation, as an act of jest. However, I see it differently. Trump wants Canada for its wealth of oil, minerals, and lumber. He sees it as a company, not a country, and one he wishes to acquire without payment so he can get the goods for free. He uses his lies and mockery to demean Canada and stoke anger in the American people against their closest ally in preparation should he decide to attack. Perhaps, given his admiration for people like Vladimir Putin, he sees himself as a kind of King destined to unite the continent under one banner of stars and stripes. Either way, when a foreign leader takes aim at your country like it's a porn star with it's pants down, it's best to take things seriously.

His most recent attempt at the Great White North is the brandishing of a proposed "Golden Dome" a multi-billion dollar missile defense project not yet created which he expects Canucks to cough up 61 billion for or become the 51st state and pay nothing. While the Canadian government has re-affirmed its shared interest in national defense with the USA, including it's interest in the project, I can assure you that 51st state or not this project would not be free. Governments get their money from taxation. If part of the US, the Canadian and American people would still pay for this project regardless of whether or not the countries merged. Furthermore there has been no word on where Trump came up with the figure of 61 billion for this project, but I suspect as with most of his figures, it came from somewhere below the belt. While the actual merits of a so called "Golden Dome" are debatable, the idea of using Canada's sovereignty as a bargaining chip is getting very tired.

At the end of the day, Canada would not go down without a fight. There is no peaceful way that this country would ever agree to join the USA and pushing the 51st state rhetoric down the throats of Canadians is a surefire way to destroy any hope of fostering closer ties with Canada and the rest of the world. What was once seen as the land of opportunity and freedom is now seen as an international bully that is decaying from the inside out. As stated by Prime Minister Mark Carney, "Canada's old relationship with the United States is over." How we move forward as neighboring nations over the next four years is going to be tricky. If there's one thing I can give wholeheartedly to President Trump it is that he defies predictability. Just when one thinks he can't top the last ridiculous thing he says he doubles down and comes up with something even nuttier. An excellent quality in a comedian, a poor quality in a leader.

Even scarier is that the lies of President Trump and his administration are so readily consumed by his right-wing supporters that for some nothing could convince them otherwise. They're too convinced that the media is always lying, that Trump is the only person they can believe, and that everyone is out to get America. I can only hope that at some point the people begin to wake up before we're in a third world war.